Archive of NBER Papers on Monetary Economics Program

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w25412 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Tiziano Ropele

Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence
w25410 Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies
w25409 Michael D. Bordo
The Imbalances of the Bretton Woods System 1965 to 1973: U.S. Inflation, The Elephant in the Room
w25407 Joseph Abadi
Markus Brunnermeier

Blockchain Economics
w25406 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yann Koby

The Reversal Interest Rate
w25404 George-Marios Angeletos
Karthik A. Sastry

Managing Expectations: Instruments vs. Targets
w25403 Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru

Debt Relief and Slow Recovery: A Decade after Lehman
w25393 Michael W. Elsby
Gary Solon

How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips
w25386 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung
Mikhail Tirskikh

The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty
w25385 Pablo Kurlat
Deposit Spreads and the Welfare Cost of Inflation
w25380 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Exchange Rates and Uncovered Interest Differentials: The Role of Permanent Monetary Shocks
w25373 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Lunyang Huang

A Global Safe Asset for and from Emerging Market Economies
w25370 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Gita Gopinath
Prachi Mishra
Abhinav Narayanan

Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India's Demonetization
w25366 James Cloyne
Clodomiro Ferreira
Maren Froemel
Paolo Surico

Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment
w25363 Daron Acemoglu
Martin Kaae Jensen

Equilibrium Analysis in the Behavioral Neoclassical Growth Model
w25347 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Quantifying the Benefits of Labor Mobility in a Currency Union
w25344 Kent Daniel
Lorenzo Garlappi
Kairong Xiao

Monetary Policy and Reaching for Income
w25340 Javier Bianchi
Jorge Mondragon

Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises
w25319 Fiorella De Fiore
Marie Hoerova
Harald Uhlig

Money Markets, Collateral and Monetary Policy
w25317 Harjoat S. Bhamra
Christian Dorion
Alexandre Jeanneret
Michael Weber

Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations
w25316 Benjamin Hébert
Michael Woodford

Information Costs and Sequential Information Sampling
w25311 Masao Fukui
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Women,Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries
w25303 Ernesto Pastén
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy
w25293 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

The Microeconomic Foundations of Aggregate Production Functions
w25288 Kurt G. Lunsford
Kenneth D. West

Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Rates
w25282 Emmanuel Farhi
François Gourio

Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia
w25269 John Ameriks
Gábor Kézdi
Minjoon Lee
Matthew D. Shapiro

Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle
w25239 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

A Monetary Model of Bilateral Over-the-Counter Markets
w25230 Simon Jäger
Benjamin Schoefer
Samuel G. Young
Josef Zweimüller

Wages and the Value of Nonemployment
w25222 Kaiji Chen
Tao Zha

Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies
w25220 Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Tsz-Nga Wong

An Heterogeneous-Agent New-Monetarist Model with an Application to Unemployment
w25196 João Granja
Christian Leuz
Raghuram Rajan

Going the Extra Mile: Distant Lending and Credit Cycles
w25180 Jing Cynthia Wu
Fan Dora Xia

Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Yield Curve
w25170 Gabriel Garber
Atif Mian
Jacopo Ponticelli
Amir Sufi

Household Debt and Recession in Brazil
w25157 David W. Berger
Konstantin Milbradt
Fabrice Tourre
Joseph Vavra

Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy
w25138 Alberto Cavallo
More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors
w25127 Jordan Brooks
Michael Katz
Hanno Lustig

Post-FOMC Announcement Drift in U.S. Bond Markets
w25123 Eric T. Swanson
The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
w25106 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
w25102 Laura Liu
Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models
w25089 Martín Uribe
The Neo-Fisher Effect: Econometric Evidence from Empirical and Optimizing Models
w25086 Brian Baugh
Itzhak Ben-David
Hoonsuk Park
Jonathan A. Parker

Asymmetric Consumption Smoothing
w25083 Toni Ahnert
Kristin Forbes
Christian Friedrich
Dennis Reinhardt

Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?
w25079 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Enisse Kharroubi

Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?
w25054 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai Bergman

Debt, Information, and Illiquidity
w25048 Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi

Macroprudential Policy with Leakages
w25032 Anna Cieslak
Andreas Schrimpf

Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication
w25020 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Ludwig Straub

The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross
w25016 Refet S. Gürkaynak
Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
Jonathan H. Wright

Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises
w25004 Jose A. Lopez
Andrew K. Rose
Mark M. Spiegel

Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence
w24989 Björn Richter
Moritz Schularick
Ilhyock Shim

The Costs of Macroprudential Policy
w24987 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Saten Kumar
Jane Ryngaert

Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data
w24981 Luigi Bocola
Gideon Bornstein
Alessandro Dovis

Quantitative Sovereign Default Models and the European Debt Crisis
w24973 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Andra Ghent
Valentin Haddad

Asset Insulators
w24971 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility Function
w24956 Julien Hugonnier
Benjamin Lester
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Frictional Intermediation in Over-the-counter Markets
w24948 Michael Carlos Best
James Cloyne
Ethan Ilzetzki
Henrik Kleven

Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches
w24927 David N.F. Bell
David G. Blanchflower

Underemployment in the US and Europe
w24902 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Manuel Lancastre
Lawrence H. Summers

Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation
w24895 Jonathan H. Wright
Seasonal Adjustment of NIPA data
w24866 Gary Gorton
Toomas Laarits
Andrew Metrick

The Run on Repo and the Fed's Response
w24845 Jordi Galí
The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment
w24823 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Credit Supply and Housing Speculation
w24811 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

On DSGE Models
w24800 Chris Edmond
Virgiliu Midrigan
Daniel Yi Xu

How Costly Are Markups?
w24792 Eric Hilt
Banks, Insider Connections, and Industrialization in New England: Evidence from the Panic of 1873
w24788 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Saten Kumar
Mathieu Pedemonte

Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?
w24778 Richard T. Thakor
Robert C. Merton

Trust in Lending
w24776 Mari Tanaka
Nicholas Bloom
Joel M. David
Maiko Koga

Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy
w24773 Kristin Forbes
Ida Hjortsoe
Tsvetelina Nenova

The Shocks Matter: Improving Our Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through
w24767 Andreas Fuster
Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Mirko Wiederholt
Basit Zafar

Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition: An Experimental Investigation
w24757 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

A Macroeconomic Model with Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries
w24751 Timothy Jackson
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Banks as Potentially Crooked Secret-Keepers
w24748 Andreas Neuhierl
Michael Weber

Monetary Momentum
w24746 Mark Gertler
Simon Gilchrist

What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession
w24741 Patrick J. Kehoe
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession
w24734 Greg Kaplan
Giovanni L. Violante

Microeconomic Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Shocks
w24729 Adam M. Guren
Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View
w24722 Miles S. Kimball
Matthew D. Shapiro
Tyler Shumway
Jing Zhang

Portfolio Rebalancing in General Equilibrium
w24717 Eric Budish
The Economic Limits of Bitcoin and the Blockchain
w24714 Jing Cynthia Wu
Ji Zhang

Global Effective Lower Bound and Unconventional Monetary Policy
w24710 Anmol Bhandari
David Evans
Mikhail Golosov
Thomas J. Sargent

Inequality, Business Cycles, and Monetary-Fiscal Policy
w24706 Andrew G. Atkeson
Adrien d'Avernas
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks
w24702 Omar Barbiero
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki

The Macroeconomics of Border Taxes
w24699 Bronson Argyle
Taylor D. Nadauld
Christopher Palmer
Ryan D. Pratt

The Capitalization of Consumer Financing into Durable Goods Prices
w24692 Michael Woodford
Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite
w24687 David Greenlaw
James D. Hamilton
Ethan Harris
Kenneth D. West

A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed's Balance Sheet
w24679 Abhijit Banerjee
Emily Breza
Arun G. Chandrasekhar
Benjamin Golub

When Less is More: Experimental Evidence on Information Delivery During India's Demonetization
w24677 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor
Felix Ward

Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
w24673 Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

International Currencies and Capital Allocation
w24659 James Cloyne
Nicholas Dimsdale
Natacha Postel-Vinay

Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain
w24655 Andres Blanco
Javier Cravino

Price Rigidities and Relative PPP
w24654 Javier Cravino
Ting Lan
Andrei A. Levchenko

Price Stickiness along the Income Distribution and the Effects of Monetary Policy
w24650 Michael D. Bordo
Klodiana Istrefi

Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers
w24649 Austan D. Goolsbee
Peter J. Klenow

Internet Rising, Prices Falling: Measuring Inflation in a World of E-Commerce
w24643 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
Practical Policy Evaluation
w24629 Klaus Adam
Michael Woodford

Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy
w24624 Jose A. Lopez
Kris James Mitchener

Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I
w24613 Hans-Werner Sinn
The ECB's Fiscal Policy
w24612 Lawrence Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Benjamin K. Johannsen

Does the New Keynesian Model Have a Uniqueness Problem?
w24597 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions When the Identifying Assumptions are Not Fully Believed: Re-evaluating the Role of Monetary Policy in Economic Fluctuations
w24595 Joshua L. Krieger
Danielle Li
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Missing Novelty in Drug Development
w24589 Christopher Martin
Manju Puri
Alexander Ufier

Deposit Inflows and Outflows in Failing Banks: The Role of Deposit Insurance
w24582 Itamar Drechsler
Alexi Savov
Philipp Schnabl

Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk
w24571 Iván Alfaro
Nicholas Bloom
Xiaoji Lin

The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier
w24555 Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Luc Laeven
David Moreno

Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis
w24550 Juliane Begenau
Maryam Farboodi
Laura Veldkamp

Big Data in Finance and the Growth of Large Firms
w24549 Mathias Drehmann
Mikael Juselius
Anton Korinek

Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms
w24545 George-Marios Angeletos
Zhen Huo

Myopia and Anchoring
w24529 Carolin Pflueger
Emil Siriwardane
Adi Sunderam

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy
w24521 Marcus Hagedorn
Jinfeng Luo
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman

Forward Guidance
w24509 Juan Ospina
Harald Uhlig

Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis of 2008: a Post Mortem
w24502 David N.F. Bell
David G. Blanchflower

The Lack of Wage Growth and the Falling NAIRU
w24501 Michael D. Bordo
John V. Duca

The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business
w24498 Roger Farmer
The Role of Financial Policy
w24496 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Instrument-Based vs. Target-Based Rules
w24485 Gita Gopinath
Jeremy C. Stein

Banking, Trade, and the making of a Dominant Currency
w24483 Linda Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Some Simple Bitcoin Economics
w24463 Roberto Chang
Foreign Exchange Intervention Redux
w24454 Claudia M. Buch
Matthieu Bussiere
Linda Goldberg
Robert Hills

The International Transmission of Monetary Policy
w24446 Adam M. Guren
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Timothy J. McQuade

Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market
w24443 Viral V. Acharya
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Capital Flow Management with Multiple Instruments
w24434 Eric Anderson
Sergio Rebelo
Arlene Wong

Markups Across Space and Time
w24415 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Intermediary Asset Pricing and the Financial Crisis
w24404 Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

Accounting for Factorless Income
w24400 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Reach for Yield and Fickle Capital Flows
w24386 Andreas Fuster
Greg Kaplan
Basit Zafar

What Would You Do With $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News and Loans
w24382 Eric Zwick
The Costs of Corporate Tax Complexity
w24377 Christopher D. Carroll
Edmund Crawley
Jiri Slacalek
Kiichi Tokuoka
Matthew N. White

Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics
w24373 Alexandr Kopytov
Nikolai Roussanov
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation
w24367 Sebastian Edwards
Keynes on the Sequencing of Economic Policy: Recovery and Reform in 1933
w24362 Julian Kozlowski
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low
w24328 Philippe Andrade
Jordi Galí
Hervé Le Bihan
Julien Matheron

The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
w24322 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel
w24319 Shang-Jin Wei
Yinxi Xie

The Wedge of the Century: Understanding a Divergence between CPI and PPI Inflation Measures
w24298 Gary B. Gorton
Toomas Laarits

Collateral Damage
w24287 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Jacob A. Robbins
Ella Getz Wold

Kaldor and Piketty's Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States
w24280 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie

Inequality and Aggregate Demand
w24275 Diego Aparicio
Alberto Cavallo

Targeted Price Controls on Supermarket Products
w24262 Marco Di Maggio
Amir Kermani
Kaveh Majlesi

Stock Market Returns and Consumption
w24261 Roger Farmer
Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model
w24244 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Unconventional Fiscal Policy
w24234 Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide
w24230 Zheng Michael Song
Wei Xiong

Risks in China's Financial System
w24223 Paul Beaudry
Franck Portier

Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices
w24221 Pablo Ottonello
Thomas Winberry

Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy
w24205 Sebastian Di Tella
A Neoclassical Theory of Liquidity Traps
w24195 Michael D. Bordo
Robert N. McCauley

Triffin: dilemma or myth?
w24178 George-Marios Angeletos
Frictional Coordination
w24168 João Granja
Christian Leuz

The Death of a Regulator: Strict Supervision, Bank Lending and Business Activity
w24154 Michael D. Bordo
An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime
w24149 John B. Taylor
Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy
w24148 Robert E. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address
w24138 Timo Boppart
Per Krusell
Kurt Mitman

Exploiting MIT Shocks in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies: The Impulse Response as a Numerical Derivative
w24135 Frederic S. Mishkin
Making Discretion in Monetary Policy More Rule-Like
w24126 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics
w24122 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Walker Ray

The Effects of Quantitative Easing: Taking a Cue from Treasury Auctions
w24112 Òscar Jordà
Katharina Knoll
Dmitry Kuvshinov
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
w24108 Anusha Chari
Ryan Leary
Toan Phan

The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico
w24091 Michael Bailey
Eduardo Dávila
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice
w24077 Aaron B. Flaaen
Matthew D. Shapiro
Isaac Sorkin

Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective
w24050 Gideon Bornstein
Guido Lorenzoni

Moral Hazard Misconceptions: the Case of the Greenspan Put
w24043 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought
w24039 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Ragnar E. Juelsrud
Ella Getz Wold

Are Negative Nominal Interest Rates Expansionary?
w24016 Michael Bordo
Eric Monnet
Alain Naef

The Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation.
w24008 John Ameriks
Joseph S. Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Minjoon Lee
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible
w24005 Sigríður Benediktsdóttir
Gauti B. Eggertsson
Eggert Þórarinsson

The Rise, the Fall, and the Resurrection of Iceland
w23993 Lars E.O. Svensson
What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting
w23998 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Byoungchan Lee

A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections
w23996 Stefano DellaVigna
Matthew Gentzkow

Uniform Pricing in US Retail Chains
w23988 Emine Boz
Gita Gopinath
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Global Trade and the Dollar
w23985 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Stefan Nagel
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels
w23984 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies
w23977 Martín Uribe
The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan
w23968 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Identification in Macroeconomics
w23961 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Vaishali Garga

Sticky Prices Versus Sticky Information: Does it Matter for Policy Paradoxes?
w23960 Matteo Cacciatore
Romain Duval
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Reforms at the Zero Lower Bound
w23954 Jonathan Chapman
Mark Dean
Pietro Ortoleva
Erik Snowberg
Colin Camerer

Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept are Probably Less Correlated Than You Think
w23931 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises
w23920 Jonathan A. Parker
Nicholas S. Souleles

Reported Effects vs. Revealed-Preference Estimates: Evidence from the propensity to spend tax rebates
w23884 Randall Wright
Philipp Kircher
Benoit Julîen
Veronica Guerrieri

Directed Search: A Guided Tour
w23879 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Antonio Falato

The Loan Covenant Channel: How Bank Health Transmits to the Real Economy
w23861 James Cloyne
Kilian Huber
Ethan Ilzetzki
Henrik Kleven

The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach
w23850 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Tyler Muir

How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis
w23847 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre L. Siklos

Central Banks: Evolution and Innovation in Historical Perspective
w23841 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Andrea Ferrero
Alessandro Rebucci

International Credit Supply Shocks
w23837 Roger E.A. Farmer
Giovanni Nicolò

Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve
w23836 Fabio Ghironi
Macro Needs Micro
w23802 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi
Emil Verner

How do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s
w23796 David Berger
Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio

Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks
w23795 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Where Modern Macroeconomics Went Wrong
w23786 Michael D. Bordo
The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over: An Historical Perspective
w23784 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

The Mortgage Rate Conundrum
w23778 Erik Eyster
Kristof Madarasz
Pascal Michaillat

Pricing when Customers Care about Fairness but Misinfer Markups
w23759 Wenxin Du
Joanne Im
Jesse Schreger

The U.S. Treasury Premium
w23755 Mark D. Flood
Dror Y. Kenett
Robin L. Lumsdaine
Jonathan K. Simon

The Complexity of Bank Holding Companies: A Topological Approach
w23754 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Ayako Saiki

Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Reporton a 1-Month or 12-month Basis?
w23750 Ernesto Pasten
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations
w23746 Marek Jarociński
Bartosz Maćkowiak

Monetary-Fiscal Interactions and the Euro Area's Malaise
w23745 Lars E.O. Svensson
Leaning Against the Wind: The Role of Different Assumptions About the Costs
w23732 Yves Achdou
Jiequn Han
Jean-Michel Lasry
Pierre-Louis Lions
Benjamin Moll

Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach
w23725 Jasmina Arifovic
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Learning to Live in a Liquidity Trap
w23711 Michael D. Bordo
Andrew T. Levin

Central Bank Digital Currency and the Future of Monetary Policy
w23707 Mark Gertler
Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance: Lessons from Japan
w23706 Andreas Fuster
Stephanie H. Lo
Paul S. Willen

The Time-Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market
w23694 Greg Kaplan
Kurt Mitman
Giovanni L. Violante

The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence
w23676 Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Ian Wright

Short and Long Run Uncertainty
w23672 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Serena Ng

Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data
w23665 Scott R. Baker
Stephanie Johnson
Lorenz Kueng

Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates
w23663 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Systematic Managed Floating
w23658 François Gourio
Anil K. Kashyap
Jae Sim

The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind
w23654 Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti
Anil Kashyap

Which Banks Recover From Large Adverse Shocks?
w23651 Elena Gerko
Hélène Rey

Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital
w23614 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation
w23612 Patrick Bolton
Haizhou Huang

The Capital Structure of Nations
w23605 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination
w23583 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S.
w23580 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Mauricio Ulate

The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
w23577 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?
w23570 Efraim Benmelech
Adam Guren
Brian T. Melzer

Making the House a Home: The Stimulative Effect of Home Purchases on Consumption and Investment
w23565 Stefan Avdjiev
Leonardo Gambacorta
Linda S. Goldberg
Stefano Schiaffi

The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity
w23546 Nittai K. Bergman
Rajkamal Iyer
Richard T. Thakor

The Effect of Cash Injections: Evidence from the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis
w23521 Francesco Bianchi
Giovanni Nicolò

A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models
w23512 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai K. Bergman

Credit Market Freezes
w23511 Bruce Carlin
William Mann

Finance, farms, and the Fed's early years
w23494 SeHyoun Ahn
Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Thomas Winberry
Christian Wolf

When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality
w23480 Michael D. Bauer
James D. Hamilton

Robust Bond Risk Premia
w23474 Anusha Chari
Karlye Dilts Stedman
Christian Lundblad

Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows
w23451 Adrien Auclert
Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel
w23449 Anthony A. DeFusco
Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume
w23448 Edward Herbst
Frank Schorfheide

Tempered Particle Filtering
w23440 Maurice Obstfeld
Alan M. Taylor

International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously
w23429 James D. Hamilton
Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter
w23424 Ali Ozdagli
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market
w23411 Elif C. Arbatli
Steven J. Davis
Arata Ito
Naoko Miake

Policy Uncertainty In Japan
w23401 Oleg Itskhoki
Dmitry Mukhin

Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium
w23394 Kewei Hou
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Replicating Anomalies
w23391 Christopher L. House
Ana-Maria Mocanu
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases
w23385 Alberto Alesina
Omar Barbiero
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Matteo Paradisi

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence
w23379 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro
w23377 Kaiji Chen
Jue Ren
Tao Zha

The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
w23357 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Dmitri Koustas

Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases
w23345 Corina Boar
Denis Gorea
Virgiliu Midrigan

Liquidity Constraints in the U.S. Housing Market
w23324 Fatih Guvenen
Raymond J. Mataloni
Dylan G. Rassier
Kim J. Ruhl

Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement
w23311 Eric T. Swanson
Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets
w23304 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Rupal Kamdar

The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve
w23302 Adriano A. Rampini
S. Viswanathan

Financial Intermediary Capital
w23294 Mel Win Khaw
Ziang Li
Michael Woodford

Risk Aversion as a Perceptual Bias
w23288 Greg Buchak
Gregor Matvos
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru

Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks
w23287 Òscar Jordà
Björn Richter
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
w23281 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets
w23270 Martin Beraja
Andreas Fuster
Erik Hurst
Joseph Vavra

Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
w23266 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
w23235 Patrick J. Kehoe
Elena Pastorino

Financial Markets and Fiscal Unions
w23228 Ulrike Malmendier
Stefan Nagel
Zhen Yan

The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC
w23225 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions
w23220 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

Partial Fiscalization: Some Lessons on Europe's Unfinished Business
w23216 Efraim Benmelech
Carola Frydman
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Financial Frictions and Employment during the Great Depression
w23194 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets
w23189 Michael D. Bordo
The Operation and Demise of the Bretton Woods System; 1958 to 1971
w23186 Ulrich K. Müller
Mark W. Watson

Long-Run Covariability
w23172 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933
w23167 Kyriakos T. Chousakos
Gary B. Gorton

Bank Health Post-Crisis
w23165 Andrew J. Fieldhouse
Karel Mertens

A Narrative Analysis of Mortgage Asset Purchases by Federal Agencies
w23163 Fatih Guvenen
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Jae Song
Motohiro Yogo

Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk
w23157 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

Circumventing the Zero Lower Bound with Monetary Policy Rules Based on Money
w23156 Roger E.A. Farmer
The End of Alchemy: A Review Essay
w23154 Andrew Fieldhouse
Karel Mertens
Morten O. Ravn

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
w23149 Julian di Giovanni
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Mehmet Fatih Ulu
Yusuf Soner Baskaya

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
w23147 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
w23143 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Shocks vs. Responsiveness: What Drives Time-Varying Dispersion?
w23142 André Kurmann
Eric Sims

Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks
w23135 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?
w23134 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?
w23093 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra
Jacob A. Robbins

A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation
w23083 Thomas Philippon
Pierre Pessarossi
Boubacar Camara

Backtesting European Stress Tests
w23074 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments
w23066 Francesco D’Acunto
Ryan Liu
Carolin Pflueger
Michael Weber

Flexible Prices and Leverage
w23055 Douglas W. Diamond
Yunzhi Hu
Raghuram G. Rajan

Pledgeability, Industry Liquidity, and Financing Cycles
w23032 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Macro-economic Management in an Electronic Credit/Financial System
w23030 Charles G. Nathanson
Eric Zwick

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply-Side Speculation in the Housing Market
w23014 Ricardo Reis
Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?
w23004 Anton Korinek
Currency Wars or Efficient Spillovers? A General Theory of International Policy Cooperation
w22979 John H. Cochrane
Stepping on a Rake: the Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy
w22978 Mel Win Khaw
Luminita Stevens
Michael Woodford

Discrete Adjustment to a Changing Environment: Experimental Evidence
w22969 Michael Gelman
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Shachar Kariv
Dmitri Koustas
Matthew D. Shapiro
Dan Silverman
Steven Tadelis

The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices
w22958 Cosmin L. Ilut
Hikaru Saijo

Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles
w22954 Xavier Gabaix
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model
w22948 Laurence Ball
Anusha Chari
Prachi Mishra

Understanding Inflation in India
w22943 Gita Gopinath
Emine Boz
Camila Casas
Federico J. Díez
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Dominant Currency Paradigm
w22941 Guido Ascari
Louis Phaneuf
Eric Sims

Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse
w22903 David Berger
Nicholas Turner
Eric Zwick

Stimulating Housing Markets
w22897 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Investment-less Growth: An Empirical Investigation
w22891 Jon Cohen
Kinda Cheryl Hachem
Gary Richardson

Relationship Lending and the Great Depression
w22878 Daniel Green
Brian T. Melzer
Jonathan A. Parker
Arcenis Rojas

Accelerator or Brake? Cash for Clunkers, Household Liquidity, and Aggregate Demand
w22874 Claudia M. Buch
Linda Goldberg

Cross-Border Prudential Policy Spillovers: How Much? How Important? Evidence from the International Banking Research Network
w22866 Martín Uribe
Is The Monetarist Arithmetic Unpleasant?
w22856 Jing Cynthia Wu
Ji Zhang

A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model
w22831 Andreas Neuhierl
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence
w22827 Simon Gilchrist
Raphael Schoenle
Jae Sim
Egon Zakrajšek

Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis
w22794 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas

Public Debt as Private Liquidity: Optimal Policy
w22790 Tarek A. Hassan
Thomas M. Mertens
Tony Zhang

Currency Manipulation
w22787 Gary Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

Fighting Crises
w22785 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge
w22784 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Sanjay R. Singh

Log-linear Approximation versus an Exact Solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian Model
w22761 Robert E. Hall
Ricardo Reis

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves
w22751 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment
w22743 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
w22741 Kristin Forbes
Ida Hjortsoe
Tsvetelina Nenova

Current Account Deficits During Heightened Risk: Menacing or Mitigating?
w22735 Alan S. Blinder
Michael Ehrmann
Jakob de Haan
David-Jan Jansen

Necessity as the Mother of Invention: Monetary Policy after the Crisis
w22729 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Jennie Bai
Charles-Henri Weymuller

Measuring Liquidity Mismatch in the Banking Sector
w22726 John Ameriks
Joseph Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

The Long-Term-Care Insurance Puzzle: Modeling and Measurement
w22695 Matthew Baron
Wei Xiong

Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk
w22693 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy: 2000 - 2007
w22663 Pedro Brinca
V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe
Ellen McGrattan

Accounting for Business Cycles
w22650 Kaiji Chen
Patrick Higgins
Daniel F. Waggoner
and Tao Zha

Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
w22645 Jose Berrospide
Ricardo Correa
Linda Goldberg
Friederike Niepmann

International Banking and Cross-border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from the United States
w22639 Vladimir Asriyan
Luca Fornaro
Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World
w22638 Marco Di Maggio
Amir Kermani
Christopher Palmer

How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel
w22619 Gary Gorton
Tyler Muir

Mobile Collateral versus Immobile Collateral
w22614 Patrick Kehoe
Elena Pastorino
Virgiliu Midrigan

Debt Constraints and Employment
w22613 Carlos Garriga
Finn E. Kydland
Roman Šustek

Nominal Rigidities in Debt and Product Markets
w22602 Debraj Ray ⓡ
Arthur Robson

Certified Random: A New Order for Co-Authorship
w22599 Gary Gorton
Ping He

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Collateralized Economy
w22594 Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi
Louphou Coulibaly

Financial Safety Nets
w22581 Michael Bordo
Arunima Sinha

A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing
w22572 Francesco Bianchi
Martin Lettau
Sydney C. Ludvigson

Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation
w22563 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure
w22557 Gregori Galofré-Vilà
Martin McKee
Christopher M. Meissner
David Stuckler

The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement
w22535 Guillermo A. Calvo
From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since WWII
w22533 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

The I Theory of Money
w22527 Hengjie Ai
Ravi Bansal

Risk Preferences and The Macro Announcement Premium
w22510 Marc Dordal-i-Carreras
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Johannes Wieland

Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation
w22506 Craig Benedict
Mario J. Crucini
Anthony Landry

On What States Do Prices Depend? Answers From Ecuador
w22505 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson
Patrick Sun
Daniel Villar

The Elusive Costs of Inflation: Price Dispersion during the U.S. Great Inflation
w22490 Cosmin L. Ilut
Rosen Valchev
Nicolas Vincent

Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty
w22489 Jordi Galí
Tommaso Monacelli

Understanding the Gains from Wage Flexibility: The Exchange Rate Connection
w22475 Luca Benati
Robert E. Lucas
Juan Pablo Nicolini
Warren Weber

International Evidence on Long Run Money Demand
w22458 Dirk Krueger
Kurt Mitman
Fabrizio Perri

On the Distribution of the Welfare Losses of Large Recessions
w22451 Hie Joo Ahn
James D. Hamilton

Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics
w22431 Edward C. Prescott
Ryan Wessel

Monetary Policy with 100 Percent Reserve Banking: An Exploration
w22418 Tobias Broer
Niels-Jakob H. Hansen
Per Krusell
Erik Öberg

The New Keynesian Transmission Mechanism: A Heterogenous-Agent Perspective
w22415 Ricardo Reis
QE in the future: the central bank's balance sheet in a fiscal crisis
w22410 Laurence Ball
The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Introduction and Summary
w22402 Patrick Higgins
Tao Zha
Karen Zhong

Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
w22384 Nicholas Kozeniauskas
Anna Orlik
Laura Veldkamp

The Common Origin of Uncertainty Shocks
w22380 David Aikman
Oliver Bush
Alan M. Taylor

Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report
w22370 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Thomas Philippon
Dimitri Vayanos

The Analytics of the Greek Crisis
w22361 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Juan Passadore

Are State and Time Dependent Models Really Different?
w22359 Alisdair McKay
Ricardo Reis

Optimal Automatic Stabilizers
w22356 John B. Taylor
The Staying Power of Staggered Wage and Price Setting Models in Macroeconomics
w22354 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Housing and Macroeconomics
w22351 Marco Di Maggio
Marcin Kacperczyk

The Unintended Consequences of the Zero Lower Bound Policy
w22343 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

Macro, Money and Finance: A Continuous Time Approach
w22341 Mark Gertler
Christopher Huckfeldt
Antonella Trigari

Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires
w22331 Greg Kaplan
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Inflation at the Household Level
w22330 Harold Cole
Daniel Neuhann
Guillermo Ordoñez

Debt Crises: For Whom the Bell Tolls
w22319 Dirk Krueger
Kurt Mitman
Fabrizio Perri

Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity
w22311 Julio Garín
Robert Lester
Eric Sims

Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data
w22307 Kristin Forbes
Dennis Reinhardt
Tomasz Wieladek

The Spillovers, Interactions, and (Un)Intended Consequences of Monetary and Regulatory Policies
w22299 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra
Sanjay R. Singh
Lawrence H. Summers

A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation
w22298 Manuel Amador
Javier Bianchi
Luigi Bocola
Fabrizio Perri

Reverse Speculative Attacks
w22297 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination
w22295 Emmanuel Farhi
Matteo Maggiori

A Model of the International Monetary System
w22285 Michael Woodford
Quantitative Easing and Financial Stability
w22283 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Alessandro Rebucci

Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?
w22279 Susanto Basu
Christopher L. House

Allocative and Remitted Wages: New Facts and Challenges for Keynesian Models
w22271 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Konstantin Milbradt

A Model of Safe Asset Determination
w22259 Marco Del Negro
Gauti Eggertsson
Andrea Ferrero
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki

The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities
w22258 Michael Bailey
Ruiqing Cao
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

Social Networks and Housing Markets
w22256 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt
w22243 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Kevin Proulx

Bernanke's No-arbitrage Argument Revisited: Can Open Market Operations in Real Assets Eliminate the Liquidity Trap?
w22238 Max Raskin
David Yermack

Digital Currencies, Decentralized Ledgers, and the Future of Central Banking
w22232 Greg Kaplan
Kurt Mitman
Giovanni L. Violante

Non-durable Consumption and Housing Net Worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from Easily Accessible Data
w22228 Roger E.A. Farmer
Pricing Assets in an Economy with Two Types of People
w22224 Gianluca Benigno
Huigang Chen
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci
Eric R. Young

Optimal Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Policies: A Pecuniary Externality Perspective
w22212 Saki Bigio
Jennifer La’O

Distortions in Production Networks
w22210 Gary B. Gorton
The History and Economics of Safe Assets
w22196 Robert E. Hall
The Role of the Growth of Risk-Averse Wealth in the Decline of the Safe Real Interest Rate
w22183 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-based Models
w22177 Julio Garín
Robert Lester
Eric Sims

Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model
w22172 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra
Lawrence H. Summers

Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy
w22169 Nicola Cetorelli
Linda S. Goldberg

Organizational Complexity and Balance Sheet Management in Global Banks
w22163 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Loukas Karabarbounis

The Limited Macroeconomic Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions
w22154 Eric R. Sims
Differences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to News Shocks
w22152 Itamar Drechsler
Alexi Savov
Philipp Schnabl

The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy
w22148 Efraim Benmelech
Ralf R. Meisenzahl
Rodney Ramcharan

The Real Effects of Liquidity During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Automobiles
w22142 Alberto F. Cavallo
Are Online and Offline Prices Similar? Evidence from Large Multi-Channel Retailers
w22141 Johannes F. Wieland
Mu-Jeung Yang

Financial Dampening
w22140 Jérémie Cohen-Setton
Joshua K. Hausman
Johannes F. Wieland

Supply-Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France
w22136 Roger E.A. Farmer
Konstantin Platonov

Animal Spirits in a Monetary Model
w22135 Roger Farmer
Pawel Zabczyk

The Theory of Unconventional Monetary Policy
w22133 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Yuliy Sannikov

On the Optimal Inflation Rate
w22129 Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

The Discounted Euler Equation: A Note
w22128 Matteo Cacciatore
Romain Duval
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Reforms in the Time of Imbalance
w22119 Mary Amiti
Oleg Itskhoki
Jozef Konings

International Shocks and Domestic Prices: How Large Are Strategic Complementarities?
w22111 Alberto Cavallo
Roberto Rigobon

The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research
w22103 Alberto Cavallo
Guillermo Cruces
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
w22074 Kris James Mitchener
Gary Richardson

Network Contagion and Interbank Amplification during the Great Depression
w22064 Gary Gorton
Ellis W. Tallman

Too-Big-To-Fail Before the Fed
w22059 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Fiscal and Financial Crises
w22058 Dario Caldara
Cristina Fuentes-Albero
Simon Gilchrist
Egon Zakrajšek

The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks
w22053 Douglas W. Diamond
Anil K. Kashyap

Liquidity Requirements, Liquidity Choice and Financial Stability
w22044 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand
w22036 Gary Gorton
Ellis W. Tallman

How Did Pre-Fed Banking Panics End?
w22021 Michael D. Bordo
John V. Duca
Christoffer Koch

Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Credit Channel: Aggregate and Bank Level U.S. Evidence over Several Decades
w22009 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
Sluggish Inflation Expectations: A Markov Chain Analysis
w22008 Gary Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

Good Booms, Bad Booms
w22006 Gaetano Gaballo
Ramon Marimon

Breaking the Spell with Credit-Easing: Self-Confirming Credit Crises in Competitive Search Economies
w22005 Diego Anzoategui
Diego Comin
Mark Gertler
Joseba Martinez

Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence
w21993 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Luis Garicano
Philip Lane
Marco Pagano
Ricardo Reis
Tano Santos
David Thesmar
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Dimitri Vayanos

The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies
w21978 Valerie A. Ramey
Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation
w21958 Carmen M. Reinhart
Vincent Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015
w21956 Martin Beraja
Erik Hurst
Juan Ospina

The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles
w21942 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth
w21902 Lars E.O. Svensson
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind
w21897 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

Monetary Policy According to HANK
w21892 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modelling of Financial Crises
w21890 Kaiji Chen
Jue Ren
Tao Zha

What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending
w21880 Kinda Cheryl Hachem
Zheng Michael Song

Liquidity Rules and Credit Booms
w21879 David López-Salido
Jeremy C. Stein
Egon Zakrajšek

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
w21878 Jeffrey A. Frankel
International Coordination
w21871 Robert J. Barro
Tao Jin

Rare Events and Long-Run Risks
w21866 Narayana Kocherlakota
Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models
w21864 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Johannes Wieland

Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles
w21863 James D. Hamilton
Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts
w21856 Joseph Davis
Marc D. Weidenmier

America's First Great Moderation
w21852 Hélène Rey
International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma
w21843 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops
w21838 Susanto Basu
Brent Bundick

Endogenous Volatility at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Stabilization Policy
w21820 Vasco Cúrdia
Michael Woodford

Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy
w21816 Eric T. Swanson
Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asset Prices
w21814 Saten Kumar
Hassan Afrouzi
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand
w21750 Robin Greenwood
Samuel Hanson
Dimitri Vayanos

Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
w21805 Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention
w21803 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?
w21799 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

A History of U.S. Debt Limits
w21796 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited
w21784 Matteo Cacciatore
Romain Duval
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: Market Deregulation and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies
w21779 Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Tsz-Nga Wong

Working through the Distribution: Money in the Short and Long Run
w21772 Lorenz Kueng
Explaining Consumption Excess Sensitivity with Near-Rationality: Evidence from Large Predetermined Payments
w21738 Pooyan Amir Ahmadi
Harald Uhlig

Sign Restrictions in Bayesian FaVARs with an Application to Monetary Policy Shocks
w21732 David Berger
Joseph Vavra

Dynamics of the U.S. Price Distribution
w21728 Farley Grubb
Common Currency versus Currency Union: The U.S. Continental Dollar and Denominational Structure, 1775-1776
w21726 Olivier Blanchard
Eugenio Cerutti
Lawrence Summers

Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications
w21722 Silvia Miranda-Agrippino
Hélène Rey

US Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle
w21713 Benjamin M. Friedman
Work and Consumption in an Era of Unbalanced Technological Advance
w21710 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre L. Siklos

Central bank Credibility Before and After the Crisis
w21688 Christopher L. House
Linda L. Tesar

Greek Budget Realities: No Easy Options
w21686 Felipe S. Iachan
Plamen T. Nenov
Alp Simsek

The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation
w21670 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound
w21667 David Berger
Veronica Guerrieri
Guido Lorenzoni
Joseph Vavra

House Prices and Consumer Spending
w21664 Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829-2015
w21646 Gita Gopinath
The International Price System
w21642 Jeffrey Clemens
Joshua D. Gottlieb
Tímea Laura Molnár

The Anatomy of Physician Payments: Contracting Subject to Complexity
w21626 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Phasing Out the GSEs
w21619 Olivier Blanchard
Jonathan D. Ostry
Atish R. Ghosh
Marcos Chamon

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence
w21614 Mariana García-Schmidt
Michael Woodford

Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis
w21599 Louis Phaneuf
Eric R. Sims
Jean Gardy Victor

Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters
w21581 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi
Emil Verner

Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide
w21576 Peter N. Ireland
Monetary Policy, Bond Risk Premia, and the Economy
w21569 Jeremy C. Stein
Adi Sunderam

Gradualism in Monetary Policy: A Time-Consistency Problem?
w21567 Sumit Agarwal
Souphala Chomsisengphet
Neale Mahoney
Johannes Stroebel

Do Banks Pass Through Credit Expansions to Consumers Who Want to Borrow?
w21550 Andrew B. Abel
Crowding Out in Ricardian Economies
w21549 Andrew B. Abel
The Analytics of Investment, q, and Cash Flow
w21528 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

Monetary Exchange in Over-the-Counter Markets: A Theory of Speculative Bubbles, the Fed Model, and Self-fulfilling Liquidity Crises
w21512 Sumit Agarwal
Gene Amromin
Souphala Chomsisengphet
Tim Landvoigt
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru
Vincent Yao

Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program
w21490 Alberto Cavallo
Scraped Data and Sticky Prices
w21486 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Leveraged Bubbles
w21476 James D. Hamilton
Ethan S. Harris
Jan Hatzius
Kenneth D. West

The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future
w21448 Iván Werning
Incomplete Markets and Aggregate Demand
w21430 Jordi Galí
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem Revisited
w21420 Julio Garín
Robert Lester
Eric Sims

On the Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting
w21392 Guido Ascari
Louis Phaneuf
Eric Sims

On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation
w21386 Steffen Andersen
John Y. Campbell
Kasper Meisner Nielsen
Tarun Ramadorai

Sources of Inaction in Household Finance: Evidence from the Danish Mortgage Market
w21369 Jonathan A. Parker
Why Don't Households Smooth Consumption? Evidence from a 25 Million Dollar Experiment
w21350 Carmen M. Reinhart
The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as told by Carlos F. Díaz Alejandro
w21341 Eugene N. White
Protecting Financial Stability in the Aftermath of World War I: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Dissenting Policy
w21336 Saroj Bhattarai
Gauti B. Eggertsson
Bulat Gafarov

Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing
w21334 Juliane Begenau
Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Banks' Risk Exposures
w21333 Carmen M. Reinhart
Miguel Angel Santos

From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela
w21328 Fernando Alvarez
Gadi Barlevy

Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion
w21320 Manuel Adelino
Antoinette Schoar
Felipe Severino

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: Further Evidence
w21318 Aviv Nevo
Arlene Wong

The Elasticity of Substitution Between Time and Market Goods: Evidence from the Great Recession
w21316 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi
Nasim Khoshkhou

Government Economic Policy, Sentiments, and Consumption
w21305 Florentin Butaru
QingQing Chen
Brian Clark
Sanmay Das
Andrew W. Lo
Akhtar Siddique

Risk and Risk Management in the Credit Card Industry
w21297 Naci H. Mocan
Luiza Pogorelova

Why Work More? The Impact of Taxes, and Culture of Leisure on Labor Supply in Europe
w21282 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation
w21261 Fernando Ferreira
Joseph Gyourko

A New Look at the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis: Panel Data Evidence of Prime and Subprime Borrowers from 1997 to 2012
w21260 Nicola Gennaioli
Yueran Ma
Andrei Shleifer

Expectations and Investment
w21252 Regis Barnichon
Andrew Figura

Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation
w21251 Dominick Bartelme
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Linkages and Economic Development
w21244 Chun Chang
Kaiji Chen
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
w21228 Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln
Tarek Alexander Hassan

Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics
w21226 Ricardo Reis
Different Types of Central Bank Insolvency and the Central Role of Seignorage
w21220 Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel Slemrod

Balance-Sheet Households and Fiscal Stimulus: Lessons from the Payroll Tax Cut and Its Expiration
w21203 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Household Debt and Defaults from 2000 to 2010: Facts from Credit Bureau Data
w21201 Miguel Faria-e-Castro
Joseba Martinez
Thomas Philippon

Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity
w21199 Jae Song
David J. Price
Fatih Guvenen
Nicholas Bloom
Till von Wachter

Firming Up Inequality
w21182 Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio
Anh Le
Marius Rodriguez

The Price of Variance Risk
w21179 Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Tsz-Nga Wong

A Tractable Model of Monetary Exchange with Ex-post Heterogeneity
w21173 Robert E. Hall
Ricardo Reis

Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking
w21172 Evgenia Passari
Hélène Rey

Financial Flows and the International Monetary System
w21162 Hélène Rey
Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence
w21158 Philippe Bacchetta
Elena Perazzi
Eric van Wincoop

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: Can Monetary Policy Really Help?
w21121 Luigi Guiso
Paola Sapienza
Luigi Zingales

Monnet's Error?
w21112 Hanming Fang
Quanlin Gu
Wei Xiong
Li-An Zhou

Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom
w21110 Fernando Alvarez
Francesco Lippi

Cash burns: An inventory model with a cash-credit choice
w21094 David G. Blanchflower
Andrew T. Levin

Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy
w21092 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Saten Kumar

How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence
w21056 Francesco Bianchi
The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A View from Financial Markets
w21039 Alan M. Taylor
Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy
w21025 Michael Gelman
Shachar Kariv
Matthew D. Shapiro
Dan Silverman
Steven Tadelis

How Individuals Respond to a Liquidity Shock: Evidence from the 2013 Government Shutdown
w21021 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

New Evidence on the Impact of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries
w21017 Michael Bordo
Harold James

Capital Flows and Domestic and International Order: Trilemmas from Macroeconomics to Political Economy and International Relations
w21007 Erik Hurst
Benjamin J. Keys
Amit Seru
Joseph S. Vavra

Regional Redistribution Through the U.S. Mortgage Market
w20973 John Ameriks
Joseph S. Briggs
Andrew Caplin
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

Long-Term-Care Utility and Late-in-Life Saving
w20972 John Ameriks
Andrew Caplin
Minjoon Lee
Matthew D. Shapiro
Christopher Tonetti

The Wealth of Wealthholders
w20947 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Fraudulent Income Overstatement on Mortgage Applications during the Credit Expansion of 2002 to 2005
w20913 Fatih Guvenen
Fatih Karahan
Serdar Ozkan
Jae Song

What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?
w20898 Pranjul Bhandari
Jeffrey A. Frankel

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries
w20882 Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited
w20874 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom
hult10-1 Charles R. Hulten and Marshall B. Reinsdorf

Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy
w20865 Daron Acemoglu
Asuman Ozdaglar
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks
w20862 Martin S. Feldstein
Ending the Euro Crisis?
w20860 Kristin Forbes
Marcel Fratzscher
Roland Straub

Capital Flow Management Measures: What Are They Good For?
w20848 Manuel Adelino
Antoinette Schoar
Felipe Severino

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class
w20832 Richard S. Grossman
Hugh Rockoff

Fighting the Last War: Economists on the Lender of Last Resort
w20827 Alberto Alesina
Omar Barbiero
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Matteo Paradisi

Austerity in 2009-2013
w20824 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre L. Siklos

Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration
w20823 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider
Johannes Stroebel

Segmented Housing Search
w20819 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Viacheslav Sheremirov
Oleksandr Talavera

Price Setting in Online Markets: Does IT Click?
w20817 Fernando Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Luigi Paciello

Monetary Shocks in Models with Inattentive Producers
w20807 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas

Quantifying Confidence
w20796 Lars E.O. Svensson
Forward Guidance
w20771 Òscar Jordà
Moritz HP. Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Betting the House
w20770 Supreet Kaur
Nominal Wage Rigidity in Village Labor Markets
w20768 Judith A. Chevalier
Anil K. Kashyap

Best Prices: Price Discrimination and Consumer Substitution
w20755 Michael D. Bordo
Owen F. Humpage
Anna J. Schwartz

The Evolution of the Federal Reserve Swap Lines since 1962
w20746 Julien Hugonnier
Benjamin Lester
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Heterogeneity in Decentralized Asset Markets
w20741 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information
w20737 Frederic S. Mishkin
Eugene N. White

Unprecedented Actions: The Federal Reserve's Response to the Global Financial Crisis in Historical Perspective
w20725 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung
Gonzalo Morales

Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries
w20719 Valerie A. Ramey
Sarah Zubairy

Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data
w20715 Laurence Ball
Sandeep Mazumder

A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment
w20710 Johannes Stroebel
Joseph Vavra

House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices
w20707 Chiara Fratto
Harald Uhlig

Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment: A Retro Analysis
w20704 Michael Greenstone
Alexandre Mas
Hoai-Luu Nguyen

Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and 'Normal' Economic Times
w20693 Michael Bordo
Pierre Siklos

Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective
w20687 Florin O. Bilbiie
Tommaso Monacelli
Roberto Perotti

Is Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound Desirable?
w20673 Isaiah Andrews
Matthew Gentzkow
Jesse M. Shapiro

Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments
w20666 Robert B. Barsky
Susanto Basu
Keyoung Lee

Whither News Shocks?
w20656 Michael D. Bordo
Owen F. Humpage

Federal Reserve Policy and Bretton Woods
w20652 Robert J. Barro
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Oren Levintal
Andrew Mollerus

Safe Assets
w20613 John H. Cochrane
Monetary Policy with Interest on Reserves
w20611 Hess Chung
Edward Herbst
Michael T. Kiley

Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-examination
w20594 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations
w20577 Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief
w20576 Alberto Cavallo
Guillermo Cruces
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices
w20575 Marco Del Negro
Raiden B. Hasegawa
Frank Schorfheide

Dynamic Prediction Pools: An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance
w20574 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Neil R. Mehrotra

A Model of Secular Stagnation
w20572 Philippe Martin
Thomas Philippon

Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone
w20569 Alp Simsek
Andrei Shleifer
Matthew Rognlie

Investment Hangover and the Great Recession
w20566 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency
w20561 Benjamin J. Keys
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru
Vincent Yao

Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy
w20560 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song

The Glass Ceiling and The Paper Floor: Gender Differences among Top Earners, 1981-2012
w20556 Pierpaolo Benigno
Gauti B. Eggertsson
Federica Romei

Dynamic Debt Deleveraging and Optimal Monetary Policy
w20555 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin A. Malin

Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions
w20554 Guillaume Bazot
Michael D. Bordo
Eric Monnet

The Price of Stability: The balance sheet policy of the Banque de France and the Gold Standard (1880-1914)
w20527 Horag Choi
Steven Lugauer
Nelson C. Mark

Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households
w20518 John Fernald
Mark M. Spiegel
Eric T. Swanson

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
w20517 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy
w20507 Julio J. Rotemberg
The Federal Reserve's Abandonment of its 1923 Principles
w20501 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles
w20490 Javier Bianchi
Saki Bigio

Banks, Liquidity Management and Monetary Policy
w20486 Eric T. Swanson
John C. Williams

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
w20445 Anna Orlik
Laura Veldkamp

Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans
w20419 Gara Afonso
Ricardo Lagos

Trade Dynamics in the Market for Federal Funds
w20416 Andrew G. Atkeson
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets
w20408 Cristian Badarinza
John Y. Campbell
Tarun Ramadorai

What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
w20406 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Oleksandr Talavera

Price Setting in Online Markets: Basic Facts, International Comparisons, and Cross-border Integration
w20390 Andrew Foerster
Juan Rubio-Ramírez
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
w20377 Jianjun Miao
Pengfei Wang
Tao Zha

Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle
w20365 Kinda Hachem
Inefficiently Low Screening with Walrasian Markets
w20339 Jens Hilscher
Alon Raviv
Ricardo Reis

Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment
w20338 Martin Ravallion
An Exploration of the International Comparison Program's New Global Economic Landscape
w20335 Alan Moreira
Alexi Savov

The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking
w20314 Seunghoon Na
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martin Uribe
Vivian Z. Yue

The Twin Ds: Optimal Default and Devaluation
w20303 Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song
Amir Yaron

Identifying Long-Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach
w20288 Samuel G. Hanson
Andrei Shleifer
Jeremy C. Stein
Robert W. Vishny

Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors
w20277 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath

Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions
w20265 Stefan Nagel
The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets
w20255 Tri Vi Dang
Gary Gorton
Bengt Holmström
Guillermo Ordonez

Banks as Secret Keepers
w20238 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi

Escaping the Great Recession
w20237 Christoph E. Boehm
Christopher L. House

Optimal Taylor Rules in New Keynesian Models
w20230 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Financial Institutions
w20225 Alberto Cavallo
Brent Neiman
Roberto Rigobon

The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia
w20224 Mark Gertler
Peter Karadi

Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity
w20207 Oliver Hart
Luigi Zingales

Banks Are Where The Liquidity Is
w20194 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin Ilut

Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs
w20193 Tarek A. Hassan
Thomas M. Mertens

Information Aggregation in a DSGE Model
w20185 Laurence M. Ball
Long-Term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries
w20165 Anil K. Kashyap
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

How does macroprudential regulation change bank credit supply?
w20161 Kinda Hachem
Jing Cynthia Wu

Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics
w20155 Fernando Alvarez
Hervé Le Bihan
Francesco Lippi

Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks
w20154 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel

No-Bubble Condition: Model-free Tests in Housing Markets
w20152 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006
w20141 Itamar Drechsler
Alexi Savov
Philipp Schnabl

A Model of Monetary Policy and Risk Premia
w20134 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy
w20133 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel

Very Long-Run Discount Rates
w20128 Benjamin M. Friedman
Has the Financial Crisis Permanently Changed the Practice of Monetary Policy? Has It Changed the Theory of Monetary Policy?
w20126 Kenneth S. Rogoff
Costs and Benefits to Phasing Out Paper Currency
w20122 Christian Broda
Jonathan A. Parker

The Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 and the Aggregate Demand for Consumption
w20115 Drew D. Creal
Jing Cynthia Wu

Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility
w20117 Jing Cynthia Wu
Fan Dora Xia

Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
w20099 Paul Bergin
Ling Feng
Ching-Yi Lin

Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics
w20094 Simon Gilchrist
David López-Salido
Egon Zakrajšek

Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound
w20087 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991
w20083 Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur
Angelo Riva
Eugene N. White

Floating a "Lifeboat": The Banque de France and the Crisis of 1889
w20081 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin L. Ilut
Martin Schneider

Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle
w20073 Greg Kaplan
Giovanni L. Violante
Justin Weidner

The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth
w20070 John Y. Campbell
Carolin Pflueger
Luis M. Viceira

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
w20055 Marco Del Negro
Marc P. Giannoni
Frank Schorfheide

Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models
w20041 Simon Gilchrist
Benoît Mojon

Credit Risk in the Euro Area
w20040 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

Understanding the Great Recession
w20027 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick
Lei Xie

The Flight from Maturity
w20010 Dolan Antenucci
Michael Cafarella
Margaret Levenstein
Christopher Ré
Matthew D. Shapiro

Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows
w20003 Ron Alquist
Saroj Bhattarai
Olivier Coibion

Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity
w19981 Jordi Gali
Luca Gambetti

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence
w19970 Anton Korinek
Alp Simsek

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage
w19938 Fumio Hayashi
Junko Koeda

Exiting from QE
w19927 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi

The Safety Trap
w19903 Farley Grubb
A New Approach to Solving the Colonial Monetary Puzzle: Evidence from New Jersey, 1709-1775
w19900 Francois Gourio
Leena Rudanko

Can Intangible Capital Explain Cyclical Movements in the Labor Wedge?
w19893 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson
Miao Liu

Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves
w19892 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices
w19887 Mervyn King
David Low

Measuring the ''World'' Real Interest Rate
w19886 Saroj Bhattarai
Gauti Eggertsson
Raphael Schoenle

Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux
w19885 Zhiguo He
Arvind Krishnamurthy

A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk
w19877 Greg Kaplan
Guido Menzio

The Morphology of Price Dispersion
w19871 Robert E. Hall
High Discounts and High Unemployment
w19864 Fatih Guvenen
Greg Kaplan
Jae Song

How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?
w19854 Xavier Gabaix
Matteo Maggiori

International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics
w19850 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Marianna Kudlyak
John Mondragon

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data
w19814 Dick van Dijk
Robin L. Lumsdaine
Michel van der Wel

Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions
w19792 Xu Cheng
Zhipeng Liao
Frank Schorfheide

Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities
w19790 Joseph S. Vavra
Time-Varying Phillips Curves
w19777 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

An Economical Business-Cycle Model
w19773 Viral V. Acharya
Bruce Tuckman

Unintended Consequences of LOLR Facilities: The Case of Illiquid Leverage
w19749 Eric Sims
Jonathan Wolff

The Output and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the Business Cycle
w19747 David Yermack
Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal
w19728 Jennie Bai
Thomas Philippon
Alexi Savov

Have Financial Markets Become More Informative?
w19723 Kenneth N. Kuttner
Ilhyock Shim

Can Non-Interest Rate Policies Stabilize Housing Markets? Evidence from a Panel of 57 Economies
w19714 Nicholas Bloom
Fluctuations in Uncertainty
w19712 Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song

Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR
w19711 Aloísio Araújo
Susan Schommer
Michael Woodford

Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy with Endogenous Collateral Constraints
w19704 Javier Bianchi
Enrique G. Mendoza

Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy
w19693 S. Borağan Aruoba
Luigi Bocola
Frank Schorfheide

Assessing DSGE Model Nonlinearities
w19655 Carmen M. Reinhart
Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013
w19652 Carmen M. Reinhart
Takeshi Tashiro

Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation
w19651 David Berger
Joseph S. Vavra

Volatility and Pass-through
w19642 Ing-Haw Cheng
Wei Xiong

The Financialization of Commodity Markets
w19638 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Jae Song
Dmitriy Stolyarov

Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing
w19635 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy
w19600 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Dmitri Koustas

Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence
w19598 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
w19585 Michael D. Bordo
John Landon-Lane

Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence
w19584 Michael D. Bordo
John Landon-Lane

What Explains House Price Booms?: History and Empirical Evidence.
w19565 Frank Schorfheide
Kenneth I. Wolpin

To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out
w19561 Ángel Estrada
Jordi Galí
David López-Salido

Patterns of Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area
w19540 Gary Gorton
The Development of Opacity in U.S. Banking
w19537 Matthias Doepke
Martin Schneider

Money as a Unit of Account
w19523 Linda S. Goldberg
Christian Grisse

Time Variation in Asset Price Responses to Macro Announcements
w19516 Mark Aguiar
Manuel Amador
Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath

Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises
w19504 Jessie Handbury
Tsutomu Watanabe
David E. Weinstein

How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us about Inflation?
w19497 Linda S. Goldberg
Banking Globalization, Transmission, and Monetary Policy Autonomy
w19491 Alexander M. Gelber
Damon Jones
Daniel W. Sacks

Estimating Earnings Adjustment Frictions: Method and Evidence from the Social Security Earnings Test
w19482 Jeffrey Hoopes
Daniel Reck
Joel Slemrod

Taxpayer Search for Information: Implications for Rational Attention
w19478 Michael W. Elsby
Donggyun Shin
Gary Solon

Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession
w19477 Pablo D'Erasmo
Enrique G. Mendoza

Distributional Incentives in an Equilibrium Model of Domestic Sovereign Default
w19476 John H. Cochrane
The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap
w19475 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom

Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments
w19469 Serena Ng
Jonathan H. Wright

Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling
w19442 Lars E.O. Svensson
The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target
w19421 Hui Chen
Michael Michaux
Nikolai Roussanov

Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
w19418 Jeffrey A. Miron
Natalia Rigol

Bank Failures and Output During the Great Depression
w19408 Jonathan N. Millar
Stephen D. Oliner
Daniel E. Sichel

Time-To-Plan Lags for Commercial Construction Projects
w19389 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Stefan Nagel

Interpreting Repo Statistics in the Flow of Funds Accounts
w19382 Zheng Liu
Jianjun Miao
Tao Zha

Land Prices and Unemployment
w19368 Michael Woodford
Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis
w19355 Joshua D. Angrist
Òscar Jordà
Guido Kuersteiner

Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
w19362 Anton Korinek
Enrique G. Mendoza

From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications
w19350 Eric Anderson
Benjamin A. Malin
Emi Nakamura
Duncan Simester
Jón Steinsson

Informational Rigidities and the Stickiness of Temporary Sales
w19343 Harald Uhlig
Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union
w19337 Simon Gilchrist
Egon Zakrajsek

The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs on Corporate Credit Risk
w19313 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities
w19297 David Greenlaw
James D. Hamilton
Peter Hooper
Frederic S. Mishkin

Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy
w19292 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

The Federal Reserve and Financial Regulation: The First Hundred Years
w19288 Ricardo Reis
The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis
w19265 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

Unemployment and Business Cycles
w19260 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect
w19248 S. Borağan Aruoba
Pablo Cuba-Borda
Frank Schorfheide

Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries
w19187 Ricardo Reis
Central Bank Design
w19240 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Hélène Rey

External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects
w19238 Matthias Fleckenstein
Francis A. Longstaff
Hanno Lustig

Deflation Risk
w19228 Guido Lorenzoni
Ivan Werning

Slow Moving Debt Crises
w19208 Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
Lu Zhang

Solving the DMP Model Accurately
w19204 Andrew G. Atkeson
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Measuring the Financial Soundness of U.S. Firms, 1926-2012
w19192 V.V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe

Bailouts, Time Inconsistency, and Optimal Regulation
w19184 Oliver D. Hart
Luigi Zingales

Liquidity and Inefficient Investment
w19180 Ruediger Bachmann
Benjamin Born
Steffen Elstner
Christian Grimme

Time-Varying Business Volatility and the Price Setting of Firms
w19171 Karel Mertens
José L. Montiel Olea

Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence
w19159 Kirsten Wandschneider
Lending to Lemons: Landschafts-Credit in 18th Century Prussia
w19156 David S. Scharfstein
Adi Sunderam

Concentration in Mortgage Lending, Refinancing Activity and Mortgage Rates
w19152 Edward P. Herbst
Frank Schorfheide

Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling for DSGE Models
w19148 Joseph S. Vavra
Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation
w19136 Loukas Karabarbounis
Brent Neiman

The Global Decline of the Labor Share
w19129 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki

Banking, Liquidity and Bank Runs in an Infinite-Horizon Economy
w19112 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

The European Crisis in the Context of the History of Previous Financial Crises
w19099 Christopher J. Nekarda
Valerie A. Ramey

The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup
w19079 David G. Blanchflower
Andrew J. Oswald

Does High Home-Ownership Impair the Labor Market?
w19056 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices
w19050 Rajkamal Iyer
Manju Puri
Nicholas Ryan

Do Depositors Monitor Banks?
w19039 Viral V. Acharya
Sascha Steffen

The "Greatest" Carry Trade Ever? Understanding Eurozone Bank Risks
w19026 Michael D. Bordo
Angela Redish

Putting the 'System' in the International Monetary System
w19025 Matteo Cacciatore
Giuseppe Fiori
Fabio Ghironi

Market Deregulation and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union
w19022 Guillermo Ordonez
Sustainable Shadow Banking
w19015 Loukas Karabarbounis
The Labor Wedge: MRS vs. MPN
w19010 Diego A. Comin
Martí Mestieri Ferrer

If Technology Has Arrived Everywhere, Why has Income Diverged?
w19009 Venky Venkateswaran
Randall Wright

Pledgability and Liquidity: A New Monetarist Model of Financial and Macroeconomic Activity
w19008 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Fiscal Discriminations in Three Wars
w19000 Alisdair McKay
Ricardo Reis

The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle
w18990 Rüdiger Bachmann
Peter Zorn

What Drives Aggregate Investment? Evidence from German Survey Data
w18989 Rüdiger Bachmann
Steffen Elstner

Firms' Optimism and Pessimism
w18985 Linda S. Goldberg
Cédric Tille

A Bargaining Theory of Trade Invoicing and Pricing
w18968 Viral V. Acharya
Robert Engle
Diane Pierret

Testing Macroprudential Stress Tests: The Risk of Regulatory Risk Weights
w18960 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach
w18949 Kerwin Kofi Charles
Erik Hurst
Matthew J. Notowidigdo

Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline, and Labor Market Outcomes
w18943 Tobias Adrian
Hyun Song Shin

Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk
w18942 Valentina Bruno
Hyun Song Shin

Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
w18941 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

Household Leveraging and Deleveraging
w18912 Andrew G. Atkeson
Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Pierre-Olivier Weill

The Market for OTC Derivatives
w18911 Qingyuan Du
Shang-Jin Wei

A Theory of the Competitive Saving Motive
w18906 Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets
w18904 Ing-Haw Cheng
Sahil Raina
Wei Xiong

Wall Street and the Housing Bubble
w18895 Kris James Mitchener
Gary Richardson

Does "Skin in the Game" Reduce Risk Taking? Leverage, Liability and the Long-Run Consequences of New Deal Banking Reforms
w18890 Mary Amiti
David E. Weinstein

How Much do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data
w18888 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve's First Centennial
w18883 Marianne Bertrand
Adair Morse

Trickle-Down Consumption
w18870 Ulrich Mueller
Mark W. Watson

Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction
w18864 Marco Bassetto
Christopher Phelan

Speculative Runs on Interest Rate Pegs
w18860 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence From The Stock Market
w18857 Augustin Landier
David Sraer
David Thesmar

Banks' Exposure to Interest Rate Risk and The Transmission of Monetary Policy
w18829 Ariel Burstein
Gita Gopinath

International Prices and Exchange Rates
w18828 Michael D. Bordo
Hugh Rockoff

Not Just the Great Contraction: Friedman and Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960
w18826 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment
w18806 Jordi Galí
Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles
w18800 George-Marios Angeletos
Fabrice Collard
Harris Dellas
Behzad Diba

Optimal Public Debt Management and Liquidity Provision
w18766 Jaromir Nosal
Guillermo Ordoñez

Uncertainty as Commitment
w18762 Jing Wu
Joseph Gyourko
Yongheng Deng

Is There Evidence of a Real Estate Collateral Channel Effect on Listed Firm Investment in China?
w18761 Peter A. Diamond
Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment
w18759 Robert J. Barro
Sanjay P. Misra

Gold Returns
w18751 Kathryn M.E. Dominguez
Matthew D. Shapiro

Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?
w18746 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

The Missing Transmission Mechanism in the Monetary Explanation of the Great Depression
w18737 Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi

A Model of the Safe Asset Mechanism (SAM): Safety Traps and Economic Policy
w18732 Gary B. Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Supply and Demand for Safe Assets
w18730 Ricardo Reis
The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis
w18716 John B. Taylor
International Monetary Coordination and the Great Deviation
w18705 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications
w18668 Laurence M. Ball
Daniel Leigh
Prakash Loungani

Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?
w18665 David Card
Stefano DellaVigna

Nine Facts about Top Journals in Economics
w18651 Jordi Galí
Notes for a New Guide to Keynes (I): Wages, Aggregate Demand, and Employment
w18644 Ricardo J. Caballero
Joseph B. Doyle

Carry Trade and Systemic Risk: Why are FX Options so Cheap?
w18611 Gary Gorton
Andrew Metrick

w18569 Luis Felipe Céspedes
Andrés Velasco

Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts
w18563 Alberto Cavallo
Brent Neiman
Roberto Rigobon

Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate
w18557 Sebastian Edwards
The Federal Reserve, Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High Frequency Empirical Investigation
w18544 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

The Making Of A Great Contraction With A Liquidity Trap and A Jobless Recovery
w18513 Zhiguo He
Asaf Manela

Information Acquisition in Rumor Based Bank Runs
w18510 Jonathan A. Parker
LEADS on Macroeconomic Risks to and from the Household Sector
w18467 Domenico Giannone
Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri

Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions
w18455 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

Who Ran on Repo?
w18445 Richard Blundell
Luigi Pistaferri
Itay Saporta-Eksten

Consumption Inequality and Family Labor Supply
w18434 Luca Sala
Ulf Söderström
Antonella Trigari

Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market During the Great Recession: Cross-Country Evidence
w18432 Finn E. Kydland
Peter Rupert
Roman Sustek

Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle
w18431 Luis Felipe Céspedes
Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

Financial Intermediation, Exchange Rates, and Unconventional Policy in an Open Economy
w18427 Charles W. Calomiris
Joseph R. Mason
Marc Weidenmier
Katherine Bobroff

The Effects of Reconstruction Finance Corporation Assistance on Michigan's Banks' Survival in the 1930s
w18420 Susanto Basu
Brent Bundick

Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand
w18409 Peter N. Ireland
The Macroeconomic Effects of Interest on Reserves
w18398 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Martin Oehmke

Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk
w18397 Gary B. Gorton
Some Reflections on the Recent Financial Crisis
w18382 Charles Engel
Nelson C. Mark
Kenneth D. West

Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates
w18381 Emmanuel Farhi
Iván Werning

Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions
w18360 Guillermo Ordoñez
The Asymmetric Effects of Financial Frictions
w18370 Robert E. Hall
The Cyclical Response of Advertising Refutes Counter-Cyclical Profit Margins in Favor of Product-Market Frictions
w18362 Hideaki Hirata
M. Ayhan Kose
Christopher Otrok
Marco E. Terrones

Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants
w18358 Michael J. Fishman
Jonathan A. Parker

Valuation, Adverse Selection, and Market Collapses
w18357 Ravi Bansal
Ivan Shaliastovich

A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets
w18348 Seonghoon Cho
Bennett T. McCallum

Refining Linear Rational Expectations Models and Equilibria
w18335 Tobias Adrian
Paolo Colla
Hyun Song Shin

Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9
w18339 John Y. Campbell
Mortgage Market Design
w18336 Alberto Alesina
Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi

The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations
w18323 Bennett T. McCallum
A Continuity Refinement for Rational Expectations Solutions
w18321 Ralph S.J. Koijen
Motohiro Yogo

The Cost of Financial Frictions for Life Insurers
w18305 Ravi Bansal
Dana Kiku
Amir Yaron

Risks For the Long Run: Estimation with Time Aggregation
w18295 Robert J. Barro
Convergence and Modernization Revisited
w18290 Alan M. Taylor
The Great Leveraging
w18287 Takeo Hoshi
Takatoshi Ito

Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?
w18280 Ivan Werning
Emmanuel Farhi

Fiscal Unions
w18273 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Gee Hee Hong

The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications
w18264 Carola Frydman
Eric Hilt
Lily Y. Zhou

Economic Effects of Runs on Early 'Shadow Banks': Trust Companies and the Impact of the Panic of 1907
w18245 Nicholas Bloom
Max Floetotto
Nir Jaimovich
Itay Saporta-Eksten
Stephen J. Terry

Really Uncertain Business Cycles
w18225 Quamrul Ashraf
Boris Gershman
Peter Howitt

How Inflation Affects Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Investigation
w18222 Erik Snowberg
Justin Wolfers
Eric Zitzewitz

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
w18215 Bennett T. McCallum
Determinacy, Learnability, Plausibility, and the Role of Money in New Keynesian Models
w18199 Emmanuel Farhi
Ivan Werning

Dealing with the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange Rates
w18195 Yuriy Kitsul
Jonathan H. Wright

The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions
w18194 Michael D. Bordo
Joseph G. Haubrich

Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record
w18178 Daron Acemoglu
Martin Kaae Jensen

Robust Comparative Statics in Large Dynamic Economies
w18170 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Lorenz Kueng
John Silvia

Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S.
w18149 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin A. Malin

Testing for Keynesian Labor Demand
w18142 Miles S. Kimball
"Getting the Biggest Bang for the Buck in Fiscal Policy"
w18128 Emi Nakamura
Dmitriy Sergeyev
Jón Steinsson

Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence
w18102 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Thomas M. Eisenbach
Yuliy Sannikov

Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey
w18094 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession
w18085 Jordi Galí
Frank Smets
Rafael Wouters

Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation
w18072 Philippe Aghion
Emmanuel Farhi
Enisse Kharroubi

Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and Growth
w18059 Todd M. Sinai
House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles
w18035 Fatih Guvenen
Serdar Ozkan
Jae Song

The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk
w18031 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

Prudential Policy for Peggers
w18027 Raghuram Rajan
Rodney Ramcharan

The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis: The Boom and Bust in Farm Land Prices in the United States in the 1920s.
w18021 Matthew Jaremski
Peter L. Rousseau

Banks, Free Banks, and U.S. Economic Growth
w18015 Carmen M. Reinhart
Vincent R. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Debt Overhangs: Past and Present
w17998 Domenico Ferraro
Kenneth S. Rogoff
Barbara Rossi

Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?
w17984 Michael D. Bordo
Owen Humpage
Anna J. Schwartz

Epilogue: Foreign-Exchange-Market Operations in the Twenty-First Century
w17978 Mario J. Crucini
Christopher I. Telmer

Microeconomic Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability
w17967 Michael Woodford
Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability
w17958 Rüdiger Bachmann
Tim O. Berg
Eric R. Sims

Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence
w17956 Martin S. Eichenbaum
Nir Jaimovich
Sergio Rebelo
Josephine Smith

How Frequent Are Small Price Changes?
w17944 Pierpaolo Benigno
Federica Romei

Debt Deleveraging and The Exchange Rate
w17941 Carmen M. Reinhart
A Series of Unfortunate Events: Common Sequencing Patterns in Financial Crises
w17934 Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
John Moore

Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy
w17924 Rüdiger Bachmann
Lin Ma

Lumpy Investment, Lumpy Inventories
w17909 Charles A.E. Goodhart
Anil K. Kashyap
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

Financial Regulation in General Equilibrium
w17906 Jon Faust
Abhishek Gupta

Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models
w17900 Cosmin Ilut
Martin Schneider

Ambiguous Business Cycles
w17896 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Does Inequality Lead to a Financial Crisis?
w17885 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

The Barnett Critique After Three Decades: A New Keynesian Analysis
w17860 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era
w17858 Juliano J. Assunção
Efraim Benmelech
Fernando S. S. Silva

Repossession and the Democratization of Credit
w17838 Viral V. Acharya
Nada Mora

Are Banks Passive Liquidity Backstops? Deposit Rates and Flows during the 2007-2009 Crisis
w17836 Laurence M. Ball
Ben Bernanke and the Zero Bound
w17830 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

What explains high unemployment? The aggregate demand channel
w17823 Lars E.O. Svensson
Practical Monetary Policy: Examples from Sweden and the United States
w17822 Shekhar Aiyar
Charles W. Calomiris
Tomasz Wieladek

Does Macro-Pru Leak? Evidence from a UK Policy Experiment
w17791 Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
w17787 Valerie A. Ramey
Government Spending and Private Activity
w17780 Joon-Ho Hahm
Frederic S. Mishkin
Hyun Song Shin
Kwanho Shin

Macroprudential Policies in Open Emerging Economies
w17778 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

Getting up to Speed on the Financial Crisis: A One-Weekend-Reader's Guide
w17777 Gary B. Gorton
Stefan Lewellen
Andrew Metrick

The Safe-Asset Share
w17772 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models
w17771 Gary B. Gorton
Guillermo Ordonez

Collateral Crises
w17769 Leonid Kogan
Dimitris Papanikolaou
Amit Seru
Noah Stoffman

Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation, and Growth
w17768 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Stefan Nagel
Dmitry Orlov

Sizing Up Repo
w17736 Sumit Agarwal
David Lucca
Amit Seru
Francesco Trebbi

Inconsistent Regulators: Evidence From Banking
w17723 Tim Landvoigt
Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

The Housing Market(s) of San Diego
w17717 Gregor Matvos
Amit Seru

Resource Allocation within Firms and Financial Market Dislocation: Evidence from Diversified Conglomerates
w17691 Nicolas Coeurdacier
Hélène Rey

Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics
w17682 Charles Goodhart
Global Macroeconomic and Financial Supervision: Where Next?
w17670 Nicolas E. Magud
Carmen M. Reinhart
Esteban R. Vesperoni

Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms
w17662 Emmanuel Farhi
Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki

Fiscal Devaluations
w17622 Fatih Guvenen
Macroeconomics With Heterogeneity: A Practical Guide
w17621 Òscar Jordà
Moritz HP. Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises
w17617 Martin S. Feldstein
The Euro and European Economic Conditions
w17597 Douglas A. Irwin
Anticipating the Great Depression? Gustav Cassel's Analysis of the Interwar Gold Standard
w17595 Douglas A. Irwin
Gold Sterilization and the Recession of 1937-38
w17594 Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki
Brent Neiman

Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009
w17583 Veronica Guerrieri
Guido Lorenzoni

Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap
w17525 George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

Optimal Monetary Policy with Informational Frictions
w17566 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi

Persistent Liquidity Effects and Long Run Money Demand
w17555 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy
w17516 John Y. Campbell
João F. Cocco

A Model of Mortgage Default
w17500 Yiting Li
Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Liquidity and the Threat of Fraudulent Assets
w17492 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

Reserves and Baskets
w17489 Florin O. Bilbiie
Ippei Fujiwara
Fabio Ghironi

Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety
w17454 Tobias Adrian
Markus K. Brunnermeier

w17468 Efraim Benmelech
Eyal Dvir

Does Short-Term Debt Increase Vulnerability to Crisis? Evidence from the East Asian Financial Crisis
w17431 Gilles St. Paul
Toward a Political Economy of Macroeconomic Thinking
w17425 Michael D. Bordo
Owen F. Humpage
Anna J. Schwartz

The Federal Reserve as an Informed Foreign Exchange Trader: 1973 - 1995
w17424 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Anna Mikusheva
Serena Ng

Estimators for Persistent and Possibly Non-Stationary Data with Classical Properties
w17391 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from U.S. Regions
w17380 Michael D. Bordo
Agnieszka Markiewicz
Lars Jonung

A Fiscal Union for the Euro: Some Lessons from History
w17379 Maurice Obstfeld
International Liquidity: The Fiscal Dimension
w17353 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Hélène Rey
Kai Truempler

The Financial Crisis and The Geography of Wealth Transfers
w17344 Ivan Werning
Managing a Liquidity Trap: Monetary and Fiscal Policy
w17328 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursua

Rare Macroeconomic Disasters
w17323 Stephen A. Ross
The Recovery Theorem
w17321 Marcin Kacperczyk
Philipp Schnabl

Implicit Guarantees and Risk Taking: Evidence from Money Market Funds
w17305 Takero Doi
Takeo Hoshi
Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy
w17274 Laurence M. Ball
Nicolás De Roux
Marc Hofstetter

Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean
w17272 Carlo Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Jacopo Perego

Country Heterogeneity and the International Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy
w17240 Jonathan A. Parker
On Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Recessions
w17229 George-Marios Angeletos
Luigi Iovino
Jennifer La'O

Cycles, Gaps, and the Social Value of Information
w17197 Robin Greenwood
Samuel G. Hanson

Issuer Quality and the Credit Cycle
w17191 Francois Gourio
Leena Rudanko

Customer Capital
w17154 Jonathan H. Wright
What does Monetary Policy do to Long-Term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?
w17144 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai K. Bergman
Amit Seru

Financing Labor
w17140 Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide
Eleonora Granziera
Mihye Lee

Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions
w17133 Gianluca Benigno
Pierpaolo Benigno
Salvatore Nisticò

Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate
w17129 Isaac Mbiti
David N. Weil

Mobile Banking: The Impact of M-Pesa in Kenya
w17123 Richard C.K. Burdekin
Kris James Mitchener
Marc D. Weidenmier

Irving Fisher and Price-Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer?
w17090 Lieven Baele
Geert Bekaert
Seonghoon Cho
Koen Inghelbrecht
Antonio Moreno

Macroeconomic Regimes
w17084 Jordi Galí
Frank Smets
Rafael Wouters

Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
w17076 Deniz Igan
Prachi Mishra
Thierry Tressel

A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis
w17071 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

Is there a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization?
w17063 Rüdiger Bachmann
Eric R. Sims

Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks
w17060 George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

Decentralization, Communication, and the Origins of Fluctuations
w17029 N. Gregory Mankiw
Matthew C. Weinzierl

An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization Policy
w17045 Zheng Liu
Pengfei Wang
Tao Zha

Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations
w17044 Laurence M. Ball
Sandeep Mazumder

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession
w17038 Rüdiger Fahlenbrach
Robert Prilmeier
René M. Stulz

This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance During the Recent Financial Crisis
w17034 Olivier Coibion
Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?
w17026 Francois Gourio
Credit Risk and Disaster Risk
w17024 Michael D. Bordo
Peter L. Rousseau

Historical Evidence on the Finance-Trade-Growth Nexus
w17021 Simon Gilchrist
Egon Zakrajšek

Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations
w17005 Bennett T. McCallum
Should Central Banks Raise their Inflation Targets? Some Relevant Issues
w16996 Martin Lettau
Sydney C. Ludvigson

Shocks and Crashes
w16994 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram Rajan

Illiquid Banks, Financial Stability, and Interest Rate Policy
w16988 Igal Hendel
Aviv Nevo

Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Storable Goods Markets
w16979 Fiorella De Fiore
Harald Uhlig

Bank Finance Versus Bond Finance
w16967 Manju Puri
Jörg Rocholl
Sascha Steffen

Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects
w16965 Callum Jones
Virgiliu Midrigan
Thomas Philippon

Household Leverage and the Recession
w16956 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment
w16946 Michael D. Bordo
Owen F. Humpage
Anna J. Schwartz

U.S. Intervention During the Bretton Woods Era: 1962-1973
w16941 Isil Erel
Brandon Julio
Woojin Kim
Michael S. Weisbach

Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising
w16931 James D. Hamilton
Jing Cynthia Wu

Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models
w16925 Gabriel P. Mathy
Christopher M. Meissner

Trade, Exchange Rate Regimes and Output Co-Movement: Evidence from the Great Depression
w16911 Xavier Gabaix
A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality
w16910 William Poole
Robert H. Rasche
David C. Wheelock

The Great Inflation: Did the Shadow Know Better?
w16903 Carolin E. Pflueger
Luis M. Viceira

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
w16893 Carmen M. Reinhart
M. Belen Sbrancia

The Liquidation of Government Debt
w16892 Carolin E. Pflueger
Luis M. Viceira

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
w16890 Lisa D. Cook
Were the Nigerian Banking Reforms of 2005 A Success ... And for the Poor?
w16883 Jeremy C. Stein
Monetary Policy as Financial-Stability Regulation
w16845 Paul Bloxham
Christopher Kent
Michael Robson

Asset Prices, Credit Growth, Monetary and Other Policies: An Australian Case Study
w16847 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martin Uríbe

Pegs and Pain
w16827 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

A Decade of Debt
w16825 Eugene N. White
"To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking": How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision
w16815 Carmen M. Reinhart
Vincent Reinhart

Pride Goes Before a Fall: Federal Reserve Policy and Asset Markets
w16805 Nicolas E. Magud
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Capital Controls: Myth and Reality - A Portfolio Balance Approach
w16787 Santiago Carbo-Valverde
Edward J. Kane
Francisco Rodriguez-Fernandez

Safety-Net Benefits Conferred on Difficult-to-Fail-and-Unwind Banks in the US and EU Before and During the Great Recession
w16781 Frank Schorfheide
Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models: Progress and Challenges
w16777 Nicolae Gârleanu
Lasse Heje Pedersen

Margin-Based Asset Pricing and Deviations from the Law of One Price
w16775 Hyunseung Oh
Ricardo Reis

Targeted Transfers and the Fiscal Response to the Great Recession
w16764 Alexander David
Pietro Veronesi

Investors' and Central Bank's Uncertainty Embedded in Index Options
w16763 Michael D. Bordo
David C. Wheelock

The Promise and Performance of the Federal Reserve as Lender of Last Resort 1914-1933
w16759 James Feyrer
Bruce Sacerdote

Did the Stimulus Stimulate? Real Time Estimates of the Effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
w16758 Isabel Correia
Emmanuel Farhi
Juan Pablo Nicolini
Pedro Teles

Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound
w16755 Frederic S. Mishkin
Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis
w16750 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Bubbly Liquidity
w16727 Thomas Philippon
Philipp Schnabl

Informational Rents, Macroeconomic Rents, and Efficient Bailouts
w16725 Jon Faust
Simon Gilchrist
Jonathan H. Wright
Egon Zakrajsek

Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach
w16707 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?
w16688 Charles W. Calomiris
Joseph Mason
David Wheelock

Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the Recession of 1937-1938? A Microeconomic Approach
w16684 Jonathan A. Parker
Nicholas S. Souleles
David S. Johnson
Robert McClelland

Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008
w16681 Peter N. Ireland
Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area
w16680 Judith A. Chevalier
Anil K. Kashyap

Best Prices
w16647 Michael D. Bordo
Owen F. Humpage
Anna J. Schwartz

U.S. Foreign-Exchange-Market Intervention and the Early Dollar Float: 1973 - 1981
w16654 Lars E.O. Svensson
Inflation Targeting
w16633 Gianluca Benigno
Pierpaolo Benigno
Salvatore Nisticò

Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk
w16620 Julio J. Rotemberg
A Behavioral Model of Demandable Deposits and its Implications for Financial Regulation
w16609 Frederic S. Mishkin
Over The Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis
w16595 Gabriel Jiménez
Atif R. Mian
José-Luis Peydró
Jesús Saurina

Local Versus Aggregate Lending Channels: The Effects Of Securitization On Corporate Credit Supply In Spain
w16589 Michael D. Bordo
John S. Landon-Lane

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08: Is it Unprecedented?
w16577 Jonathan A. Parker
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

The Increase in Income Cyclicality of High-Income Households and its Relation to the Rise in Top Income Shares
w16567 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
w16537 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
w16532 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets
w16522 Roger E.A. Farmer
Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function
w16514 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Liquidity Traps: An Interest-Rate-Based Exit Strategy
w16505 John F. Cogan
John B. Taylor

What the Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package
w16488 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Modeling Inflation After the Crisis
w16478 Joshua Aizenman
Gurnain Kaur Pasricha

Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future
w16460 Mark Carlson
Kris James Mitchener
Gary Richardson

Arresting Banking Panics: Fed Liquidity Provision and the Forgotten Panic of 1929
w16458 Antje Berndt
Hanno Lustig
Sevin Yeltekin

How Does the U.S. Government Finance Fiscal Shocks?
w16420 Peter N. Ireland
A New Keynesian Perspective on the Great Recession
w16412 James D. Hamilton
Seth Pruitt
Scott Borger

Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule
w16401 Yongsung Chang
Sun-Bin Kim
Frank Schorfheide

Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique
w16397 Geert Bekaert
Marie Hoerova
Marco Lo Duca

Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy
w16395 Viral V. Acharya
Ouarda Merrouche

Precautionary Hoarding of Liquidity and Inter-Bank Markets: Evidence from the Sub-prime Crisis
w16393 Pedro Teles
Harald Uhlig

Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?
w16386 Pierpaolo Benigno
Luigi Paciello

Monetary Policy, Doubts and Asset Prices
w16385 Ke Tang
Wei Xiong

Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities
w16384 Jordi Galí
Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?
w16377 Olivier Jeanne
Anton Korinek

Managing Credit Booms and Busts: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach
w16374 Pierpaolo Benigno
Luca Antonio Ricci
Paolo Surico

Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
w16365 Michael D. Bordo
John Landon-Lane

The Lessons from the Banking Panics in the United States in the 1930s for the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008
w16364 Patrick J. Kehoe
Virgiliu Midrigan

Prices are Sticky After All
w16358 Matthias Fleckenstein
Francis A. Longstaff
Hanno Lustig

Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle
w16351 Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 'Cash for Clunkers' Program
w16350 Douglas A. Irwin
Did France Cause the Great Depression?
w16345 Michael D. Bordo
Owen F. Humpage
Anna J. Schwartz

U.S. Foreign-Exchange-Market Intervention during the Volcker-Greenspan Era
w16342 Melvin Stephens
Takashi Unayama

The Consumption Response to Seasonal Income: Evidence from Japanese Public Pension Benefits
w16337 Adam Ashcraft
Nicolae Gârleanu
Lasse Heje Pedersen

Two Monetary Tools: Interest Rates and Haircuts
w16334 Carmen M. Reinhart
Vincent R. Reinhart

After the Fall
w16290 Rahul Anand
Eswar S. Prasad

Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets
w16283 Brent Neiman
A State-Dependent Model of Intermediate Goods Pricing
w16246 Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel Slemrod

Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?
w16231 Takatoshi Ito
Satoshi Koibuchi
Kiyotaka Sato
Junko Shimizu

Why has the yen failed to become a dominant invoicing currency in Asia? A firm-level analysis of Japanese Exporters' invoicing behavior
w16228 Francesco Giavazzi
Alberto Giovannini

Central Banks and the Financial System
w16218 David K. Backus
Federico Gavazzoni
Christopher Telmer
Stanley E. Zin

Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle
w16208 Vasco Curdia
Michael Woodford

The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy
w16200 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai K. Bergman

Credit Traps
w16182 Kimie Harada
Takatoshi Ito
Shuhei Takahashi

Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies
w16168 Rong Qian
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crisis: Elusive or Illusion?
w16165 Benjamin M. Friedman
Kenneth N. Kuttner

Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?
w16150 Jan Hatzius
Peter Hooper
Frederic S. Mishkin
Kermit L. Schoenholtz
Mark W. Watson

Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis
w16145 Christopher L. House
Yusufcan Masatlioglu

Managing Markets for Toxic Assets
w16143 Ruediger Bachmann
Steffen Elstner
Eric R. Sims

Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data
w16130 Alessandro Barattieri
Susanto Basu
Peter Gottschalk

Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages
w16124 Laurence M. Ball
The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes
w16095 Michael Woodford
Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy
w16093 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Johannes F. Wieland

The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models
w16092 Zheng Xueyi
Yaguang Zhang
John Whalley

Monetary Theory from a Chinese Historical Perspective
w16081 Mario J. Crucini
Mototsugu Shintani
Takayuki Tsuruga

Do Sticky Prices Increase Real Exchange Rate Volatility at the Sector Level?
w16067 Valerie A. Ramey
Daniel J. Vine

Oil, Automobiles, and the U.S. Economy: How Much have Things Really Changed?
reic09-1 Lucrezia Reichlin and Kenneth D. West

NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009
w16065 Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki

In Search of Real Rigidities
w16063 Daniel Paravisini
Veronica Rappoport
Enrichetta Ravina

Risk Aversion and Wealth: Evidence from Person-to-Person Lending Portfolios
w16054 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

The Optimal Rate of Inflation
w16031 Lucian A. Bebchuk
Itay Goldstein

Self-Fulfilling Credit Market Freezes
w15979 Michael W. Elsby
Bart Hobijn
Aysegul Sahin

The Labor Market in the Great Recession
w16027 Michael D. Bordo
David Hargreaves
Mizuho Kida

Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience
w15988 Jack Favilukis
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk-Sharing in General Equilibrium
w15986 Marc P. Giannoni
Optimal Interest-Rate Rules in a Forward-Looking Model, and Inflation Stabilization versus Price-Level Stabilization
w15934 Willem H. Buiter
Urjit R. Patel

Fiscal Rules in India: Are They Effective?
w15927 Olivier Jeanne
Anton Korinek

Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach
w15920 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson
Robert Barro
José Ursúa

Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters
w15919 Zhiguo He
In Gu Khang
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Balance Sheet Adjustments in the 2008 Crisis
w15908 John B. Taylor
John C. Williams

Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy
w15902 Robert J. Barro
Jong-Wha Lee

A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010
w15896 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009
w15879 Jean Boivin
Michael T. Kiley
Frederic S. Mishkin

How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
w15871 Jordi Galí
Monetary Policy and Unemployment
w15817 Marcus Miller
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Leverage and Asset Bubbles: Averting Armageddon with Chapter 11?
w15852 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Luigi Paciello

Optimal price setting with observation and menu costs
w15842 Pierpaolo Benigno
Ester Faia

Globalization, Pass-Through and Inflation Dynamic
w15835 Fernando E. Alvarez
Luigi Guiso
Francesco Lippi

Durable consumption and asset management with transaction and observation costs
w15826 Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin A. Malin

Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting
w15809 Yacine Aït-Sahalia
Jochen Andritzky
Andreas Jobst
Sylwia Nowak
Natalia Tamirisa

Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis
w15802 Diego Aragon
Andrew Caplin
Sumit Chopra
John V. Leahy
Yann LeCun
Marco Scoffier
Joseph Tracy

Reassessing FHA Risk
w15794 Joshua Angrist
Jörn-Steffen Pischke

The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics
w15787 Gary B. Gorton
Questions and Answers about the Financial Crisis
w15785 Thomas Philippon
Vasiliki Skreta

Optimal Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection
w15777 Casey B. Mulligan
Foreclosures, Enforcement, and Collections under the Federal Mortgage Modification Guidelines
w15774 Vasco Cúrdia
Ricardo Reis

Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles
w15773 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply
w15741 Wojciech Kopczuk
Economics of estate taxation: a brief review of theory and evidence
w15770 Peter L. Rousseau
The Market for Bank Stocks and the Rise of Deposit Banking in New York City, 1866-1897
w15767 Pedro S. Martins
Gary Solon
Jonathan Thomas

Measuring What Employers Really Do about Entry Wages over the Business Cycle
w15763 Linda S. Goldberg
Craig Kennedy
Jason Miu

Central Bank Dollar Swap Lines and Overseas Dollar Funding Costs
w15762 Pierpaolo Benigno
Luca Antonio Ricci

The Inflation-Output Trade-off with Downward Wage Rigidities
w15759 David Laibson
Johanna Mollerstrom

Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis
w15758 Jordi Galí
The Return of the Wage Phillips Curve
w15757 Marc P. Giannoni
Michael Woodford

Optimal Target Criteria for Stabilization Policy
w15754 Christopher J. Nekarda
Valerie A. Ramey

Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending
w15736 James D. Hamilton
Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts
w15726 Takatoshi Ito
Great Inflation and Central Bank Independence in Japan
w15714 Michael Woodford
Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier
w15708 Efraim Benmelech
Nittai K. Bergman

Bankruptcy and the Collateral Channel
w15702 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics
w15694 Daron Acemoglu
Pierre Yared

Political Limits to Globalization
w15693 Daron Acemoglu
Institutions, Factor Prices and Taxation: Virtues of Strong States?
w15690 Bennett T. McCallum
Is the Spurious Regression Problem Spurious?
w15688 Ralph S.J. Koijen
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns
w15670 Kris James Mitchener
Marc D. Weidenmier

Searching for Irving Fisher
w15662 Ricardo Reis
Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-09
w15653 Zhiguo He
Wei Xiong

Rollover Risk and Credit Risk
w15645 Peter Temin
The Great Recession and the Great Depression
w15642 Jean Boivin
Robert Clark
Nicolas Vincent

Virtual Borders: Online Nominal Rigidities and International Market Segmentation
w15639 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Growth in a Time of Debt
w15636 Ricardo J. Caballero
The "Other" Imbalance and the Financial Crisis
w15631 Charles Yuji Horioka
Shizuka Sekita

The Degree of Judicial Enforcement and Credit Markets: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data
w15630 Andrew Levin
John B. Taylor

Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation
w15626 Johannes C. Stroebel
John B. Taylor

Estimated Impact of the Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program
w15584 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

The Great Depression Analogy
w15570 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

Investment Shocks and Business Cycles
w15565 Volker Wieland
Quantitative Easing: A Rationale and Some Evidence from Japan
w15542 Arvind Krishnamurthy
How Debt Markets have Malfunctioned in the Crisis
w15534 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner
David Stuckler

Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View
w15512 Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008
w15505 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

On Quality Bias and Inflation Targets
w15494 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Foreign Demand for Domestic Currency and the Optimal Rate of Inflation
w15487 Dimitri Vayanos
Jean-Luc Vila

A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w15482 Zhiguo He
Wei Xiong

Dynamic Debt Runs
w15481 Wei Xiong
Jialin Yu

The Chinese Warrants Bubble
w15464 Valerie A. Ramey
Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing
w15462 Todd M. Sinai
Nicholas S. Souleles

Can Owning a Home Hedge the Risk of Moving?
w15424 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Craig Hakkio

Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts
w15421 Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel B. Slemrod

Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications
w15414 Ricardo Lagos
Guillaume Rocheteau
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Crises and Liquidity in Over-the-Counter Markets
w15399 François Gourio
Disasters Risk and Business Cycles
w15388 David G. Blanchflower
Conall MacCoille

The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK
w15385 Lars E.O. Svensson
Evaluating Monetary Policy
w15379 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Marion Kohler
Christian Upper

Financial Crises and Economic Activity
w15375 José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
Frank Schorfheide
Cristina Fuentes-Albero
Maxym Kryshko
Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis

Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours
w15369 Robert J. Barro
Charles J. Redlick

Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes
w15367 David O. Lucca
Francesco Trebbi

Measuring Central Bank Communication: An Automated Approach with Application to FOMC Statements
w15359 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market
w15312 Robert B. Barsky
Eric R. Sims

News Shocks
w15306 Junhee Lee
Joonhyuk Song

Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy
w15297 Lasse Heje Pedersen
When Everyone Runs for the Exit
w15289 Vasco Cúrdia
Michael Woodford

Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy
w15283 Atif R. Mian
Amir Sufi

House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis
w15273 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

w15270 Andrew Ang
Jean Boivin
Sen Dong
Rudy Loo-Kung

Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure
w15255 Emi Nakamura
Dawit Zerom

Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through
w15247 Robert J. Barro
Tao Jin

On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters
w15243 Fatih Guvenen
A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing
w15234 Bennett T. McCallum
Causality, Structure, and the Uniqueness of Rational Expectations Equilibria
w15223 Gary B. Gorton
Andrew Metrick

Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo
w15208 David H. Romer
A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC
w15204 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry
Diego Sasson

Capital Market Integration and Wages
w15197 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

Illiquidity and Interest Rate Policy
w15187 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Serena Ng

Estimation of DSGE Models When the Data are Persistent
w15173 Laurence M. Ball
Policy Responses to Exchange-Rate Movements
w15170 John Geanakoplos
Stephen P. Zeldes

Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits
w15165 John B. Donaldson
Natalia Gershun
Marc P. Giannoni

Some Unpleasant General Equilibrium Implications of Executive Incentive Compensation Contracts
w15158 Nuno Cassola
Ali Hortacsu
Jakub Kastl

The 2007 Subprime Market Crisis Through the Lens of European Central Bank Auctions for Short-Term Funds
w15138 Emmanuel Farhi
Jean Tirole

Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch and Systemic Bailouts
w15123 Espen Henriksen
Finn E. Kydland
Roman Sustek

Globally Correlated Nominal Fluctuations
w15118 Willem H. Buiter
Negative Nominal Interest Rates: Three ways to overcome the zero lower bound
w15117 Michael W. L. Elsby
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stepping Off the Wage Escalator: The Effects of Wage Growth on Equilibrium Employment
w15113 James Feyrer
Jay C. Shambaugh

Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks
w15093 Shang-Jin Wei
Xiaobo Zhang

The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China
w15083 Raghuram G. Rajan
Rodney Ramcharan

Land and Credit: A Study of the Political Economy of Banking in the United States in the Early 20th Century
w15072 Harald Uhlig
A Model of a Systemic Bank Run
w15071 N. Gregory Mankiw
Matthew Weinzierl
Danny Yagan

Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice
w15052 Robert B. Barsky
The Japanese Bubble: A 'Heterogeneous' Approach
w15049 Robert B. Barsky
Eric R. Sims

Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence
w15045 Efraim Benmelech
Jennifer Dlugosz

The Credit Rating Crisis
w15040 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Amplification Mechanisms in Liquidity Crises
w15029 Diego A. Comin
Mark Gertler
Ana Maria Santacreu

Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations
hosh07-1 Takeo Hoshi and Takatoshi Ito

Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR
w15020 Yuko Hashimoto
Takatoshi Ito

Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: High-Resolution Picture
w15015 Olivier J. Blanchard
Jean-Paul L'Huillier
Guido Lorenzoni

News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration
w15014 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller
Luis M. Viceira

Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
w15010 Andrew B. Abel
Janice C. Eberly
Stavros Panageas

Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market with Information Costs and Transactions Costs
w15003 George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

Incomplete Information, Higher-Order Beliefs and Price Inertia
w15002 James D. Hamilton
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08
w14996 Harald Uhlig
Monetary policy in Europe vs the US: what explains the difference?
w14993 Peter L. Rousseau
Monetary Policy and the Dollar
w14982 George-Marios Angeletos
Jennifer La'O

Noisy Business Cycles
w14976 N. Gregory Mankiw
Matthew Weinzierl

The Optimal Taxation of Height: A Case Study of Utilitarian Income Redistribution
w14938 Gita Gopinath
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Nicholas Li

Estimating the Border Effect: Some New Evidence
w14933 Julio J. Rotemberg
Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret
w14929 Thomas Philippon
Philipp Schnabl

Efficient Recapitalization
w14927 Eyal Dvir
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Three Epochs of Oil
w14925 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

Fear of Fire Sales and the Credit Freeze
w14904 Barry Eichengreen
Ashoka Mody
Milan Nedeljkovic
Lucio Sarno

How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads
w14902 Stefan Laséen
Lars E.O. Svensson

Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations
w14895 Riccardo DiCecio
Edward Nelson

The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes
w14894 Riccardo DiCecio
Edward Nelson

Euro Membership as a U.K. Monetary Policy Option: Results from a Structural Model
w14882 Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models
w14874 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Enrique G. Mendoza
Linda L. Tesar

The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with Love
w14872 Frank Schorfheide
Keith Sill
Maxym Kryshko

DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables
w14870 S. Boragan Aruoba
Frank Schorfheide

Sticky Prices Versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-offs
w14863 Simon Gilchrist
Vladimir Yankov
Egon Zakrajsek

Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets
w14862 Marvin Goodfriend
Robert G. King

The Great Inflation Drift
w14849 John B. Taylor
Volker Wieland

Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Data Base
w14846 Roger E.A. Farmer
Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits
w14829 Charles Engel
Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination
w14824 Pierpaolo Benigno
New-Keynesian Economics: An AS-AD View
w14818 Laurence M. Ball
Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence
w14815 Ravi Bansal
Ivan Shaliastovich

Confidence Risk and Asset Prices
w14814 Ravi Bansal
Ivan Shaliastovich

Learning and Asset-Price Jumps
w14787 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin A. Malin

Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks
w14770 Jess Benhabib
A Note on Regime Switching, Monetary Policy, and Multiple Equilibria
w14761 Vasiliki Skreta
Laura Veldkamp

Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation
w14754 Miles S. Kimball
Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro

Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation
w14753 Matthew D. Shapiro
Joel B. Slemrod

Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?
w14739 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram Rajan

The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies
w14735 Reint Gropp
Anil Kashyap

A New Metric for Banking Integration in Europe
w14734 Pierpaolo Benigno
Salvatore Nisticò

International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty
w14732 Ricardo Reis
A Sticky-Information General-Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis
w14722 Antonio Fatas
Ilian Mihov

The Euro and Fiscal Policy
w14710 Roger E.A. Farmer
Tao Zha
Daniel F. Waggoner

Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
w14701 John Y. Campbell
Adi Sunderam
Luis M. Viceira

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
w14678 Frederic S. Mishkin
Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?
w14669 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model
w14665 Jonathan A. Parker
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How?
w14663 Michael G. Palumbo
Jonathan A. Parker

The Integrated Financial and Real System of National Accounts for the United States: Does It Presage the Financial Crisis?
w14659 Sumit Agarwal
Paige M. Skiba
Jeremy Tobacman

Payday Loans and Credit Cards: New Liquidity and Credit Scoring Puzzles?
w14657 Michael D. Bordo
Ronald MacDonald
Michael J. Oliver

Sterling in crisis: 1964-1967
w14651 Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Virgiliu Midrigan

Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models
w14649 Gary B. Gorton
Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007
w14631 John B. Taylor
The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong
w14621 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation
w14620 Michael Woodford
Information-Constrained State-Dependent Pricing
w14617 Michael Elsby
Bart Hobijn
Aysegul Sahin

Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD
w14616 J. Christina Wang
Susanto Basu
John G. Fernald

A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
w14612 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08
w14605 Andrew Caplin
John Leahy

Trading Frictions and House Price Dynamics
w14604 Peter Blair Henry
Conrad Miller

Institutions vs. Policies: A Tale of Two Islands
w14601 Kirstin Hubrich
Kenneth D. West

Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets
w14580 Loretti I. Dobrescu
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Alberto F. Motta

Why Aren't Developed Countries Saving?
w14586 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?
w14569 Michael D. Bordo
An Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007-2008
w14562 Joshua Aizenman
Reuven Glick

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stylized Facts about their Determinants and Governance
w14561 Joshua Aizenman
Michael Hutchison
Ilan Noy

Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets
w14534 Bennett T. McCallum
Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?
w14532 Michael D. Bordo
Barry Eichengreen

Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation
w14527 Hans Fehr
Sabine Jokisch
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Dynamic Globalization and Its Potentially Alarming Prospects for Low-Wage Workers
w14514 Casey B. Mulligan
A Depressing Scenario: Mortgage Debt Becomes Unemployment Insurance
w14510 Malin Adolfson
Stefan Laséen
Jesper Lindé
Lars E.O. Svensson

Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model
w14509 Diego A. Comin
An Exploration of the Japanese Slowdown during the 1990s
w14489 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Kermit L. Schoenholtz

How Central Bankers See It: The First Decade of ECB Policy and Beyond
w14473 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Stefan Nagel
Lasse H. Pedersen

Carry Trades and Currency Crashes
w14452 Chris Edmond
Laura Veldkamp

Income Dispersion and Counter-Cyclical Markups
w14446 Casey Mulligan
Luke Threinen

Market Responses to the Panic of 2008
w14436 Liran Einav
Ephraim Leibtag
Aviv Nevo

Not-so-Classical Measurement Errors: A Validation Study of Homescan
w14433 Rachel Griffith
Ephraim Leibtag
Andrew Leicester
Aviv Nevo

Timing and Quantity of Consumer Purchases and the Consumer Price Index
w14422 Asaf Bernstein
Eric Hughson
Marc D. Weidenmier

Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed
w14402 Christopher L. House
Fixed Costs and Long-Lived Investments
w14401 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K. Kashyap

Will the U.S. Bank Recapitalization Succeed? Eight Lessons from Japan
w14398 Gary B. Gorton
The Subprime Panic
w14391 Stefano Eusepi
Bruce Preston

Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination
w14389 Andrew T. Foerster
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
Mark W. Watson

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production
w14378 William A. Brock
Charles F. Manski

Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment
w14362 Marc D. Weidenmier
Joseph H. Davis
Roger Aliaga-Diaz

Is Sugar Sweeter at the Pump? The Macroeconomic Impact of Brazil's Alternative Energy Program
w14358 Gary B. Gorton
The Panic of 2007
w14357 William A. Brock
Steven N. Durlauf
Giacomo Rondina

Design Limits and Dynamic Policy Analysis
w14323 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Strategic Interaction Among Heterogeneous Price-Setters In An Estimated DSGE Model
w14322 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts
w14282 Betsey Stevenson
Justin Wolfers

Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox
w14280 Rajkamal Iyer
Manju Puri

Understanding Bank Runs: The Importance of Depositor-Bank Relationships and Networks
w14255 Manuel Amador
Pierre-Olivier Weill

Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare
w14244 Matthew Canzoneri
Robert E. Cumby
Behzad Diba
David Lopez-Salido

Monetary Aggregates and Liquidity in a Neo-Wicksellian Framework
w14223 James D. Hamilton
Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales
w14222 Julio J. Rotemberg
Liquidity Needs in Economies with Interconnected Financial Obligations
w14219 Robert E. Hall
Susan E. Woodward

The Burden of the Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship
w14208 Miles S. Kimball
Matthew D. Shapiro

Labor Supply: Are the Income and Substitution Effects Both Large or Both Small?
w14204 Willem H. Buiter
Housing Wealth Isn't Wealth
w14200 Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki

Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-through
reic08-1 Lucrezia Reichlin and Kenneth West

NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006
w14190 Jean Boivin
Marc P. Giannoni
Benoît Mojon

How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?
w14184 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence
w14181 Stefano Eusepi
Bruce Preston

Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations
w14169 Jon Faust
Jonathan H. Wright

Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns
w14164 Bennett T. McCallum
Determinacy, Learnability, and Plausibility in Monetary Policy Analysis: Additional Results
w14163 Bennett T. McCallum
Reconsideration of the P-Bar Model of Gradual Price Adjustment
w14160 Yuko Hashimoto
Takatoshi Ito
Takaaki Ohnishi
Misako Takayasu
Hideki Takayasu
Tsutomu Watanabe

Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability
w14151 James D. Hamilton
Macroeconomics and ARCH
w14134 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Crisis and Responses: the Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008
w14071 Kenneth S. Rogoff
Vania Stavrakeva

The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting
w14101 Nicola Cetorelli
Linda S. Goldberg

Banking Globalization, Monetary Transmission, and the Lending Channel
w14098 Peter N. Ireland
On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand
w14092 Malin Adolfson
Stefan Laséen
Jesper Lindé
Lars E.O. Svensson

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model
w14054 A. Craig Burnside
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Isaac Kleshchelski
Sergio Rebelo

Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?
w14033 Daron Acemoglu
Simon Johnson
Pablo Querubin
James A. Robinson

When Does Policy Reform Work? The Case of Central Bank Independence
w14019 Michael D. Bordo
Michael J. Dueker
David C. Wheelock

Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions
w14001 Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multi-Sector Menu Cost Model
w13986 Pierpaolo Benigno
Luca Antonio Ricci

The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off at Low Inflation
w13985 Valerie A. Ramey
Time Spent in Home Production in the 20th Century: New Estimates from Old Data
w13979 John Geanakoplos
Stephen P. Zeldes

Reforming Social Security with Progressive Personal Accounts
w13970 Frederic S. Mishkin
Does Stabilizing Inflation Contribute To Stabilizing Economic Activity?
w13889 Frederic S. Mishkin
Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy
w13940 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursúa

Macroeconomic Crises since 1870
w13965 Emi Nakamura
Pass-Through in Retail and Wholesale
w13948 Frederic S. Mishkin
Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy
w13943 John B. Taylor
John C. Williams

A Black Swan in the Money Market
w13932 Alan S. Blinder
Michael Ehrmann
Marcel Fratzscher
Jakob De Haan
David-Jan Jansen

Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence
w13924 Aleksander Berentsen
Guido Menzio
Randall Wright

Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run
w13918 Niall Ferguson
Moritz Schularick

The "Thin Film Of Gold": Monetary Rules and Policy Credibility In Developing Countries
w13910 Jón Steinsson
The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models
w13906 Andrea Ferrero
Mark Gertler
Lars E.O. Svensson

Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy
w13901 Yu-Chin Chen
Kenneth Rogoff
Barbara Rossi

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?
w13896 Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Adrien Verdelhan

The Wealth-Consumption Ratio
w13895 Edward J. Kane
Regulation and Supervision: An Ethical Perspective
w13892 Lars E.O. Svensson
Noah Williams

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach
w13876 Christopher D. Carroll
Jiri Slacalek
Martin Sommer

International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth
w13859 Orley Ashenfelter
Daniel Hosken

The Effect of Mergers on Consumer Prices: Evidence from Five Selected Case Studies
w13829 Martin Eichenbaum
Nir Jaimovich
Sergio Rebelo

Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities
w13820 Linda S. Goldberg
Cédric Tille

Macroeconomic Interdependence and the International Role of the Dollar
w13815 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

A Long Term Perspective on the Euro
w13777 Michael W. L. Elsby
Ryan Michaels

Marginal Jobs, Heterogeneous Firms, & Unemployment Flows
w13761 Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison
w13755 Julio J. Rotemberg
Minimally Altruistic Wages and Unemployment in a Matching Model
w13751 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?
w13749 Timothy Cogley
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Thomas J. Sargent

Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S.
w13741 Marco Del Negro
Frank Schorfheide

Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How it Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities)
w13736 Jean Boivin
Marc Giannoni

Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness
w13716 Michael Woodford
Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice
w13690 Robert J. Barro
Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs
w13689 Robert J. Barro
Jason Hwang

Religious Conversion in 40 Countries
w13685 John B. Taylor
The Explanatory Power of Monetary Policy Rules
w13682 John B. Taylor
Housing and Monetary Policy
w13677 Ramon Marimon
Javier Díaz-Giménez
Giorgia Giovannetti
Pedro Teles

Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy
w13655 V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe

The Heterogeneous State of Modern Macroeconomics: A Reply to Solow
w13635 Josephine M. Smith
John B. Taylor

The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules
w13622 Rafael Di Tella
Robert MacCulloch

Happiness, Contentment and Other Emotions for Central Banks
w13615 Ricardo Reis
Mark W. Watson

Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation
w13613 Christopher J. Erceg
Christopher Gust
David López-Salido

The Transmission of Domestic Shocks in the Open Economy
w13607 Dale F. Gray
Robert C. Merton
Zvi Bodie

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability
w13605 Michael D. Bordo
Ali Dib
Lawrence Schembri

Canada's Pioneering Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the 1950s:(Hard) Lessons Learned for Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy
w13593 Edward J. Kane
Incentive Conflict In Central-Bank Responses to Sectoral Turmoil in Financial Hub Countries
w13590 George-Marios Angeletos
Alessandro Pavan

Policy with Dispersed Information
w13580 Marvin Goodfriend
How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy
w13569 James D. Hamilton
Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts
w13566 Frederic S. Mishkin
Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?
w13556 Argia M. Sbordone
Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: the Impact of Increased Competition
w13548 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast: The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending
w13546 Edward Nelson
Anna J. Schwartz

The Impact of Milton Friedman on Modern Monetary Economics: Setting the Record Straight on Paul Krugman's "Who Was Milton Friedman?"
w13544 Giancarlo Corsetti
Luca Dedola
Sylvain Leduc

Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sources of Local-Currency Price Stability
w13542 Jordi Galí
Mark Gertler

Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation
w13532 Peter N. Ireland
Scott Schuh

Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model
w13521 Lawrence Christiano
Roberto Motto
Massimo Rostagno

Shocks, Structures or Monetary Policies? The Euro Area and US After 2001
w13518 Frederic S. Mishkin
Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
w13506 David G. Blanchflower
Chris Shadforth

Fear, Unemployment and Migration
w13505 David G. Blanchflower
Is Unemployment More Costly Than Inflation?
w13502 Lawrence Christiano
Roberto Motto
Massimo Rostagno

Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy
w13471 Martin S. Feldstein
Housing, Credit Markets and the Business Cycle
w13455 Ariel Burstein
Christian Hellwig

Prices and Market Shares in a Menu Cost Model
w13448 Andrew Ang
Sen Dong
Monika Piazzesi

No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules
w13432 Gita Gopinath
Oleg Itskhoki
Roberto Rigobon

Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-through
w13428 Edward E. Leamer
Housing IS the Business Cycle
w13423 John Y. Campbell
Estimating the Equity Premium
w13419 David K. Backus
Jonathan H. Wright

Cracking the Conundrum
w13416 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi

Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash
w13414 Lars E.O. Svensson
Noah M. Williams

Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty
w13410 John H. Cochrane
Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules
w13409 John H. Cochrane
Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules
w13406 Roger E. A. Farmer
Aggregate Demand and Supply
w13404 Andreas Beyer
Roger E. A. Farmer
Jérôme Henry
Massimiliano Marcellino

Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations
w13399 Kaoru Hosono
Koji Sakai
Kotaro Tsuru

Consolidation of Banks in Japan: Causes and Consequences
w13398 Andrew Atkeson
V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe

On the Optimal Choice of a Monetary Policy Instrument
w13397 Jon Faust
Jonathan H. Wright

Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset
w13391 Alan S. Blinder
John Morgan

Leadership in Groups: A Monetary Policy Experiment
w13385 Nicholas Bloom
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
w13366 Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Laura Veldkamp

Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle
w13337 Miles S. Kimball
Claudia R. Sahm
Matthew D. Shapiro

Imputing Risk Tolerance from Survey Responses
w13329 Michael Woodford
Globalization and Monetary Control
w13325 Michael Woodford
How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?
w13318 Charles Engel
Nelson C. Mark
Kenneth D. West

Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think
w13315 Simon Gilchrist
Jae W. Sim

Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Analysis
w13280 Assaf Razin
Alon Binyamini

Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy: Outcome of Globalization?
w13278 Craig Burnside
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo

Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach
w13264 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks
w13259 Stefano Eusepi
Bruce Preston

Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization
w13255 Christian Broda
David E. Weinstein

Defining Price Stability in Japan: A View from America
w13245 Michael F. Gallmeyer
Burton Hollifield
Francisco Palomino
Stanley E. Zin

Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models
w13207 Marvin Goodfriend
Bennett T. McCallum

Banking and Interest Rates in Monetary Policy Analysis: A Quantitative Exploration
w13204 Veronica Guerrieri
Guido Lorenzoni

Liquidity and Trading Dynamics
w13199 Florin O. Bilbiie
Fabio Ghironi
Marc J. Melitz

Monetary Policy and Business Cycles with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety
w13177 Guillermo A. Calvo
Interest Rate Rules, Inflation Stabilization, and Imperfect Credibility: The Small Open Economy Case
w13174 Simon Gilchrist
Egon Zakrajsek

Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market
w13147 Frederic S. Mishkin
Inflation Dynamics
w13134 Kenneth D. West
Ka-fu Wong
Stanislav Anatolyev

Instrumental Variables Estimation of Heteroskedastic Linear Models Using All Lags of Instruments
w13131 Laura Alfaro
Fabio Kanczuk

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
w13112 James D. Hamilton
Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices
w13101 Kenneth N. Kuttner
Adam S. Posen

Do Markets Care Who Chairs the Central Bank?
w13099 Marco Del Negro
Frank Schorfheide

Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models
w13047 Farley Grubb
The Continental Dollar: How Much Was Really Issued?
w13041 Christian Broda
David E. Weinstein

Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications
w13010 Richard Clarida
Daniel Waldman

Is Bad News About Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate?
w12993 Michael D. Bordo
Growing Up to Financial Stability
w12983 Gary Richardson
Patrick Van Horn

Fetters of Debt, Deposit, or Gold during the Great Depression? The International Propagation of the Banking Crisis of 1931
w12982 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher Erceg
Andrew Levin
Ryan Michaels

Three Great American Disinflations
w12965 Roger E.A. Farmer
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Understanding the New-Keynesian Model when Monetary Policy Switches Regimes
w12959 Emmanuel Farhi
Mikhail Golosov
Aleh Tsyvinski

A Theory of Liquidity and Regulation of Financial Intermediation
w12957 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Inflation Illusion, Credit, and Asset Pricing
w12945 Ricardo J. Caballero
Eduardo M.R.A. Engel

Price Stickiness in Ss Models: New Interpretations of Old Results
w12940 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Christian Gollier
Jonathan A. Parker

Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns
w12938 Mark Carlson
Kris James Mitchener

Branch Banking as a Device for Discipline: Competition and Bank Survivorship During the Great Depression
w12930 Andrew Ang
Geert Bekaert
Min Wei

The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation
w12919 Willem H. Buiter
w12898 Guido Lorenzoni
News Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy
w12896 Ricardo J. Caballero
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode
w12881 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

The Demand for Treasury Debt
w12876 Frederic S. Mishkin
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?
w12853 Michael W. Elsby
Ryan Michaels
Gary Solon

The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment
w12839 Willem H. Buiter
Is Numerairology the Future of Monetary Economics? Unbundling numeraire and medium of exchange through a virtual currency and a shadow exchange rate
w12835 Peter L. Rousseau
Backing, the Quantity Theory, and the Transition to the U.S. Dollar, 1723-1850
w12824 Jean Boivin
Marc Giannoni
Ilian Mihov

Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated U.S. Data
w12810 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Christian Julliard

Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies
w12788 Guillermo A. Calvo
Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort
w12772 Jean Boivin
Marc Giannoni

DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment
t0332 Jean Boivin
Marc Giannoni

DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment
w12781 Wei Xiong
Hongjun Yan

Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets
w12778 George-Marios Angeletos
Alessandro Pavan

Socially Optimal Coordination: Characterization and Policy Implications
w12763 Robert J. Barro
On the Welfare Costs of Consumption Uncertainty
w12746 Christopher D. Carroll
Misuzu Otsuka
Jirka Slacalek

How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach
w12740 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

Comparing Two Variants of Calvo-Type Wage Stickiness
w12719 Gary Richardson
A Comment Concerning Deposit Insurance and Moral Hazard
w12717 Gary Richardson
Bank Distress during the Great Depression: The Illiquidity-Insolvency Debate Revisited
w12716 Gary Richardson
Correspondent Clearing and the Banking Panics of the Great Depression
w12715 Gary Richardson
Quarterly Data on the Categories and Causes of Bank Distress During the Great Depression
w12713 Jeffrey A. Frankel
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices
w12711 Andrew K. Rose
A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Inflation Targeting is Bretton Woods, Reversed
w12703 Douglas Laxton
Papa N'Diaye
Paolo Pesenti

Deflationary Shocks and Monetary Rules: an Open-Economy Scenario Analysis
w12698 Peter Blair Henry
Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation
w12687 Laurence M. Ball
Has Globalization Changed Inflation?
w12672 Pierpaolo Benigno
Michael Woodford

Linear-Quadratic Approximation of Optimal Policy Problems
w12671 Ulrich Mueller
Mark W. Watson

Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability
w12666 Hugh Rockoff
On the Origins of "A Monetary History"
w12662 Michael D. Bordo
Owen Humpage
Anna J. Schwartz

The Historical Origins of U.S. Exchange Market Intervention Policy
w12654 Chryssi Giannitsarou
Andrew Scott

Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt
w12644 Charles Calomiris
Devaluation with Contract Redenomination in Argentina
w12637 Dale F. Gray
Robert C. Merton
Zvi Bodie

A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy
w12612 Atif Mian
Asim Ijaz Khwaja

Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market
w12611 Michael W. Elsby
Evaluating the Economic Significance of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity
w12609 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

Equilibrium Yield Curves
w12606 Thomas Sargent
Noah Williams
Tao Zha

The Conquest of South American Inflation
w12605 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Sticky Information in General Equilibrium
w12594 Ching-Yi Chung
Gary Richardson

Deposit Insurance and the Composition of Bank Suspensions in Developing Economies: Lessons from the State Deposit Insurance Experiments of the 1920S
w12593 Michael Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

David Laidler on Monetarism
w12591 Gary Richardson
William Troost

Monetary Intervention Mitigated Banking Panics During the Great Depression: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Federal Reserve District Border in Mississippi, 1929 to 1933
w12590 Gary Richardson
Bank Distress During the Great Contraction, 1929 to 1933, New Data from the Archives of the Board of Governors
w12581 Alberto Alesina
Joseph Zeira

Technology and Labor Regulations
w12575 Patrick J. Kehoe
How to Advance Theory with Structural VARs: Use the Sims-Cogley-Nason Approach
w12560 Francis E. Warnock
Veronica Cacdac Warnock

International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates
w12557 Laura Veldkamp
Justin Wolfers

Aggregate Shocks or Aggregate Information? Costly Information and Business Cycle Comovement
w12542 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms
w12515 Frederic S. Mishkin
Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?
w12514 Christopher House
Matthew D. Shapiro

Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation
w12501 Luigi Guiso
Paola Sapienza
Luigi Zingales

The Cost of Banking Regulation
w12498 Mark Gertler
Antonella Trigari

Unemployment Fluctuations With Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining
w12492 Peter N. Ireland
Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences
w12491 Michael Bordo
Thomas Helbling
Harold James

Swiss Exchange Rate Policy in the 1930s. Was the Delay in Devaluation Too High a Price to Pay for Conservatism?
w12476 Patrick Kehoe
Varadarajan V. Chari

Modern Macroeconomics in Practice: How Theory is Shaping Policy
w12470 Tommaso Monacelli
Optimal Monetary Policy with Collateralized Household Debt and Borrowing Constraints
w12454 Kenneth Kuttner
Can Central Banks Target Bond Prices?
w12442 Simon Gilchrist
Masashi Saito

Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning
w12441 Bennett T. McCallum
E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models
w12426 Stanley Fischer
Reflections on One Year at the Bank of Israel
w12420 Roberto Rigobon
Brian Sack

Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices
w12405 Troy Davig
Eric M. Leeper

Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change
w12400 Alisdair McKay
Ricardo Reis

The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions
w12393 Michael D. Bordo
Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Déjà vu?
w12384 Frederic S. Mishkin
Niklas J. Westelius

Inflation Band Targeting and Optimal Inflation Contracts
w12362 John Y. Campbell
Jens Hilscher
Jan Szilagyi

In Search of Distress Risk
w12353 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum
Robert Vigfusson

Assessing Structural VARs
w12349 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer
w12345 Eduardo Levy Yeyati
Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy
w12340 Marco Arena
Carmen Reinhart
Francisco Vázquez

The Lending Channel in Emerging Economics: Are Foreign Banks Different?
w12324 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?
w12299 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner
Marc D. Weidenmier

Currency Mismatches, Default Risk, and Exchange Rate Depreciation: Evidence from the End of Bimetallism
w12290 Andrew B. Abel
Equity Premia with Benchmark Levels of Consumption: Closed-Form Results
w12277 Vitor Gaspar
Anil K. Kashyap

Stability First: Reflections Inspired by Otmar Issing's Success as the ECB's Chief Economist
w12268 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Matthew D. Shapiro

Monetary Policy When Potential Output is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s
w12234 Evan Gatev
Til Schuermann
Philip E. Strahan

Managing Bank Liquidity Risk: How Deposit-Loan Synergies Vary with Market Conditions
w12219 Pierpaolo Benigno
Are Valuation Effects Desirable from a Global Perspective?
w12189 Michael Bordo
Harold James

One World Money, Then and Now
w12117 Philippe Aghion
Philippe Bacchetta
Romain Ranciere
Kenneth Rogoff

Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development
w12170 Edward J. Kane
Inadequacy of Nation-Based and VaR-Based Safety Nets in the European Union
w12168 Martin Feldstein
The 2006 Economic Report of the President: Comment on Chapter One (The Year in Review) and Chapter Six (The Capital Account Surplus)
w12149 John Y. Campbell
Household Finance
w12138 Eugene N. White
Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s
w12136 Ricardo J. Caballero
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Flight to Quality and Collective Risk Management
w12129 Ricardo J. Caballero
Takeo Hoshi
Anil K. Kashyap

Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan
w12163 Sebastian Edwards
The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited
w12158 Pierpaolo Benigno
Michael Woodford

Optimal Inflation Targeting under Alternative Fiscal Regimes
w12118 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Greenspan Era: Discretion, Rather Than Rules
w12089 Bennett T. McCallum
Edward Nelson

Monetary and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level: The Irreconcilable Differences
w12044 Andrew K. Rose
Mark Spiegel

Offshore Financial Centers: Parasites or Symbionts?
w12036 Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider
Selale Tuzel

Housing, Consumption, and Asset Pricing
w12024 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Pervasive Stickiness (Expanded Version)
w12022 Alejandro Justiniano
Giorgio E. Primiceri

The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations
w12011 J. Bradford DeLong
Konstantin Magin

A Short Note on the Size of the Dot-Com Bubble
w11983 Elena Loutskina
Philip E. Strahan

Securitization and the Declining Impact of Bank Finance on Loan Supply: Evidence from Mortgage Acceptance Rates
w11971 Mark Gertler
John Leahy

A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation
w11946 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Alfonso Flores-Lagunes
Stefan Krause

Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth
w11942 Marc Giannoni
Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty
w11922 Pierpaolo Benigno
Anastasios Karantounias

Overconfidence, Subjective Perception and Pricing Behavior
w11898 Michael Woodford
Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness
w11897 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997
w11896 Michael Woodford
Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near Rational Expectations
w11891 Frederic Mishkin
Is Financial Globalization Beneficial?
w11856 Martin Feldstein
Monetary Policy in a Changing International Environment: The Role of Global Capital Flows
w11834 Ricardo Caballero
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Financial System Risk and Flight to Quality
w11830 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Lianfi Li

Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter for Monetary Policy?
w11821 Paul R. Bergin
Giancarlo Corsetti

Towards a Theory of Firm Entry and Stabilization Policy
w11820 Ricardo Reis
Inattentive Producers
w11815 Jordi Gali
Tommaso Monacelli

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union
w11814 Frederic S. Mishkin
How Big a Problem is Too Big to Fail?
w11806 Olivier Blanchard
Jordi Gali

Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model
w11792 Linda S. Goldberg
Michael W. Klein

Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank
w11788 Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler
David Lopez-Salido

Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve
w11777 Robert J. Gordon
What Caused the Decline in U.S. Business Cycle Volatility?
w11746 Ricardo Reis
A Dynamic Measure of Inflation
w11735 David K. Musto
Nicholas S. Souleles

A Portfolio View of Consumer Credit
w11733 Lars Svensson
Noah Williams

Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting
w11714 Michael D. Bordo
Review of A History of the Federal Reserve. Volume 1 (2003) by Allan H. Meltzer
w11699 Ariel Burstein
Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo

The Importance of Nontradable Goods' Prices in Cyclical Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations
w11687 Hanno Lustig
Christopher Sleet
Sevin Yeltekin

Fiscal Hedging and the Yield Curve
w11674 Alessandra Casella
Thomas Palfrey
Raymond Riezman

Minorities and Storable Votes
w11669 Sebastian Edwards
The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?
w11666 Loriana Pelizzon
Stephen Schaefer

Pillar 1 vs. Pillar 2 Under Risk Management
w11630 Benjamin M. Friedman
Deficits and Debt in the Short and Long Run
w11634 Barry Eichengreen
Muge Adalet

Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?
w11618 Ricardo J. Caballero
Arvind Krishnamurthy

Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management
w11586 Michael D. Bordo
Angela Redish

Seventy Years of Central Banking: The Bank of Canada in International Context, 1935-2005
w11562 Marvin Goodfriend
Robert King

The Incredible Volcker Disinflation
w11537 Lars E.O. Svensson
Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro Transparency, Not Con
w11534 John Y. Campbell
João F. Cocco

How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro Data
w11531 Alberto Alesina
Guido Tabellini

Why Do Politicians Delegate?
w11523 Andrew T. Levin
Alexei Onatski
John C. Williams
Noah Williams

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models
w11520 Michael P. Dooley
David Folkerts-Landau
Peter M. Garber

Savings Gluts and Interest Rates: The Missing Link to Europe
w11473 Filippo Altissimo
Pierpaolo Benigno
Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela

Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union
w11417 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version
w11392 Lars O. Svensson
Robert J. Tetlow

Optimal Policy Projections
w11383 Michael D. Bordo
Historical Perspective on Global Imbalances
w11374 Laurence Ball
Fiscal Remedies for Japan's Slump
w11363 Gary Gorton
Ping He

Bank Credit Cycles
w11346 Benjamin M. Friedman
What Remains from the Volcker Experiment?
w11340 Geert Bekaert
Seonghoon Cho
Antonio Moreno

New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure
w11314 Jean Boivin
Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data
w11310 Robert J. Barro
Rare Events and the Equity Premium
w11297 Ricardo Reis
The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuation
w11291 Mark Carlson
Kris James Mitchener

Branch Banking, Bank Competition, and Financial Stability
w11285 Jean Boivin
Serena Ng

Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts
w11276 Michael Gallmeyer
Burton Hollifield
Stanley E. Zin

Taylor Rules, McCallum Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w11244 Ya-Hwei Yang
Jia-Dong Shea

Deflation and Monetary Policy in Taiwan
w11173 Michael Bordo
Christopher Meissner

Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt
w11167 Lars E.O. Svensson
Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting
w11151 Mitsuru Iwamara
Takeshi Kudo
Tsutomu Watanabe

Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap: The Japanese Experience 1999-2004
w11149 Michael Woodford
Firm-Specific Capital and the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve
w11147 Giorgio Primiceri
Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy
w11127 Linda S. Goldberg
Cedric Tille

Vehicle Currency Use in International Trade
w11105 Tim Robinson
Andrew Stone

Monetary Policy, Asset-Price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound
w11089 Francis X. Diebold
Monika Piazzesi
Glenn Rudebusch

Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics
w11088 Mats Persson
Torsten Persson
Lars E.O. Svensson

Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: A Solution
w11061 Nelson C. Mark
Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics
w11056 Bennett T. McCallum
A Monetary Policy Rule for Automatic Prevention of a Liquidity Trap
w11029 Pierpaolo Benigno
Michael Woodford

Optimal Taxation in an RBC Model: A Linear-Quadratic Approach
w11006 Mark J. Garmaise
Tobias J. Moskowitz

Bank Mergers and Crime: The Real and Social Effects of Credit Market Competition
w10995 Charles Engel
Kenneth D. West

Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate
w10975 Joshua D. Angrist
Guido M. Kuersteiner

Semiparametric Causality Tests Using the Policy Propensity Score
w10973 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Alfonso Flores-Lagunes
Stefan Krause

Has Monetary Policy Become More Efficient? A Cross Country Analysis
w10938 James Harrigan
Kenneth Kuttner

Lost Decade in Translation: Did the US Learn from Japan's Post-Bubble Mistakes?
w10924 John Landon-Lane
Hugh Rockoff

Monetary Policy and Regional Interest Rates in the United States, 1880-2002
w10916 William A. Brock
Steven N. Durlauf
Kenneth D. West

Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics
w10908 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Stefan Krause

Deposit Insurance and External Finance
w10878 Takatoshi Ito
Frederic S. Mishkin

Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem
w10869 Maurice Obstfeld
Kenneth Rogoff

The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited
w10848 Willem H. Buiter
The Elusive Welfare Economics of Price Stability as a Monetary Policy Objective: Should New Keynesian Central Bankers Pursue Price Stability?
w10846 Antonio Fatas
Ilian Mihov
Andrew K. Rose

Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy
w10840 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Michael Woodford

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap
w10839 Pierpaolo Benigno
Michael Woodford

Optimal Stabilization Policy When Wages and Prices are Sticky: The Case of a Distorted Steady State
w10838 Pierpaolo Benigno
Michael Woodford

Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State
w10833 Michael D. Bordo
Andrew Filardo

Deflation and Monetary Policy in a Historical Perspective: Remembering the Past or Being Condemned to Repeat It?
w10829 Frederic S. Mishkin
Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?
w10818 Takatoshi Ito
Inflation Targeting and Japan: Why has the Bank of Japan not Adopted Inflation Targeting?
w10784 David S. Johnson
Jonathan A. Parker
Nicholas S. Souleles

Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001
w10747 Lars E.O. Svensson
Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?
w10733 Diego Comin
Bart Hobijn

Neoclassical Growth and the Adoption of Technologies
w10732 Simon Gilchrist
John C. Williams

Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan
w10724 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the U.S. Business Cycle
w10723 Charles Engel
Kenneth D. West

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals
w10707 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Jonathan A. Parker

Optimal Expectations
w10704 Michael D. Bordo
David C. Wheelock

Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms
w10703 Valerie A. Ramey
Daniel J. Vine

Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends
w10702 Peter L. Rousseau
A Common Currency: Early U.S. Monetary Policy and the Transition to the Dollar
w10681 Eric M. Engen
R. Glenn Hubbard

Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates
w10679 Olivier Jeanne
Lars E.O. Svensson

Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap: The Role of the Balance Sheet of an Independent Central Bank
w10673 Aasim M. Husain
Ashoka Mody
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Exchange Rate Regime Durability and Performance in Developing Countries Versus Advanced Economies
w10672 Andrew Ang
Monika Piazzesi
Min Wei

What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?
w10654 Howard Bodenhorn
Free Banking and Bank Entry in Nineteenth-Century New York
w10646 Frederic S. Mishkin
Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?
w10642 Willem H. Buiter
Anne C. Sibert

Deflationary Bubbles
w10636 Jordi Gali
Pau Rabanal

Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?
w10631 Neville Francis
Valerie A. Ramey

The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions
w10617 Martin Eichenbaum
Jonas D.M. Fisher

Evaluating the Calvo Model of Sticky Prices
w10616 Francis X. Diebold
Glenn D. Rudebusch
S. Boragan Aruoba

The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach
w10612 Bennett T. McCallum
Edward Nelson

Targeting vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy
w10592 Susanto Basu
John Fernald
Miles Kimball

Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
w10590 Olivier Blanchard
Thomas Philippon

The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment
w10547 Monika Piazzesi
Eric Swanson

Futures Prices as Risk-adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy
w10537 Simon Gilchrist
Charles P. Himmelberg
Gur Huberman

Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment?
w10524 Willem Buiter
A Small Corner of Intertemporal Public Finance - New Developments in Monetary Economics: 2 Ghosts, 2 Eccentricities, A Fallacy, A Mirage and A Mythos
w10475 Kris James Mitchener
Bank Supervision, Regulation, and Instability During the Great Depression
w10446 Simon Gilchrist
John C. Williams

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach
w10443 Olivier Blanchard
Jean Tirole

The Optimal Design of Unemployment Insurance and Employment Protection. A First Pass
w10431 Michael D. Bordo
Joseph G. Haubrich

The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997
w10430 Martin Eichenbaum
Jonas Fisher

Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of 9/11
w10402 Ben S. Bernanke
Kenneth N. Kuttner

What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?
w10400 Mervyn King
The Institutions of Monetary Policy
w10393 Maurice Obstfeld
Jay C. Shambaugh
Alan M. Taylor

Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar period
w10392 Jordi Gali
J. David Lopez-Salido
Javier Valles

Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules
w10389 Olivier Blanchard
Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil
w10354 Raj Chetty
Interest Rates and Backward-Bending Investment
w10342 Alberto Alesina
Roberto Perotti

The European Union: A Politically Incorrect View
w10329 Michael D. Bordo
John Landon Lane
Angela Redish

Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era
w10298 Boyan Jovanovic
Peter L. Rousseau

Interest Rates and Initial Public Offerings
w10295 Leonardo Gambacorta
How Do Banks Set Interest Rates?
w10294 Assaf Razin
Aggregate Supply and Potential Output
w10290 Alan Auerbach
Maurice Obstfeld

Monetary and Fiscal Remedies for Deflation
w10280 Kenneth D. West
Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand
w10272 Jess Benhabib
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

Chaotic Interest Rate Rules: Expanded Version
w10268 Andrew Atkeson
Patrick Kehoe

Deflation and Depression: Is There and Empirical Link?
w10263 John Y. Campbell
Tuomo Vuolteenaho

Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices
w10255 Lawrence J. Christiano
Roberto Motto
Massimo Rostagno

The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz Hypothesis
w10253 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules
w10220 Ben S. Bernanke
Jean Boivin
Piotr Eliasz

Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach
w10196 Lars E.O. Svensson
Optimal Policy with Low-Probability Extreme Events
w10195 Lars E.O. Svensson
Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others
w10183 Robert J. Shiller
The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America
w10171 Michael D. Bordo
Robert D. Dittmar
William T. Gavin

Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability
w10163 Willem H. Buiter
Helicopter Money: Irredeemable Fiat Money and the Liquidity Trap
w10161 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair: Lessons from History
w10149 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy Under Imperfect Competition
w10128 Mark Gertler
Simon Gilchrist
Fabio Natalucci

External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator
w10123 Benjamin Friedman
The LM Curve: A Not-So-Fond Farewell
w10110 Willem Buiter
Anne C. Sibert

Cross-Border Tax Externalities: Are Budget Deficits Too Small?
w10109 Susan Athey
Andrew Atkeson
Patrick Kehoe

The Optimal Degree of Discretion in Monetary Policy
w10093 Haizhou Huang
Shang-Jin Wei

Monetary Policies for Developing Countries: The Role of Corruption
w10089 Eric Leeper
An "Inflation Reports" Report
w10070 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

Money in a Theory of Banking
w10025 William A. Brock
Steven N. Durlauf
Kenneth D. West

Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments
w10019 Arminio Fraga
Ilan Goldfajn
Andre Minella

Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies
w10016 Fernando Alvarez
Andrew Atkeson
Chris Edmond

On the Sluggish Response of Prices to Money in an Inventory-Theoretic Model of Money Demand
w10010 Susanto Basu
John G. Fernald
Nicholas Oulton
Sylaja Srinivasan

The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?
w10003 Diego Comin
Mark Gertler

Medium Term Business Cycles
w9985 Ignazio Angeloni
Anil K. Kashyap
Benoit Mojon
Daniele Terlizzese

The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S.
w9984 Ignazio Angeloni
Anil K. Kashyap
Benoit Mojon
Daniele Terlizzese

Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Does the Interest Rate Channel Explain it All?
w9981 Marvin Goodfriend
Inflation Targeting in the United States?
w9969 Martin Feldstein
Monetary Policy in an Uncertain Environment
w9968 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Michael Woodford

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap
w9961 Bennett T. McCallum
Is the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?
w9960 Bennett T. McCallum
The Unique Minimum State Variable RE Solution is E-Stable in All Well Formulated Linear Models
w9939 Marc P. Giannoni
Michael Woodford

Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules
w9929 Robert G. King
Alexander L. Wolman

Monetary Discretion, Pricing Complementarity and Dynamic Multiple Equilibria
w9921 Thorsten Beck
Asli Demirguc-Kunt
Ross Levine

Bank Concentration and Crises
w9905 Pierpaolo Benigno
Michael Woodford

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Linear Quadratic Approach
w9884 Athanasios Orphanides
John C. Williams

Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
w9866 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications
w9860 Michael D. Bordo
Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur

Why didn't France follow the British Stabilization after World War One?
w9859 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics
w9838 Bennett T. McCallum
Monetary Policy in Economies with Little or No Money
w9837 Bennett T. McCallum
Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis
w9835 Claudio Raddatz
Roberto Rigobon

Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Did the FED react properly to the High-Tech Crisis?
w9832 Robert Barsky
Christopher L. House
Miles Kimball

Do Flexible Durable Goods Prices Undermine Sticky Price Models?
w9829 Jean Boivin
Serena Ng

Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?
w9814 Alan J. Auerbach
Maurice Obstfeld

The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap
w9809 Alberto Alesina
Alexander Wagner

Choosing (and reneging on) exchange rate regimes
w9808 Guillermo Calvo
Frederic S. Mishkin

The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries
w9796 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis
Justin Wolfers

Disagreement about Inflation Expectations
w9792 Christopher Meissner
Committee Structure and the Success of Connected Lending in Nineteenth Century New England Banks
w9786 Craig Burnside
Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo

Government Finance in the Wake of Currency Crises
w9773 Jordi Gali
Roberto Perotti

Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe
w9772 Craig Burnside
Martin Eichenbaum
Jonas Fisher

Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences
w9759 John Y. Campbell
Joao F. Cocco

Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice
w9753 Willem H. Buiter
James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics
w9747 Lars E. O. Svensson
Michael Woodford

Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting
w9713 Michael D. Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

IS-LM and Monetarism
w9710 Donald Morgan
Philip Strahan

Foreign Bank Entry and Business Volatility: Evidence from U.S. States and Other Countries
w9704 Donald Morgan
Bertrand Rime
Philip Strahan

Bank Integration and State Business Cycles
w9672 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Junhan Kim

Inflation Targeting, Price-Path Targeting and Output Variability
w9667 Jiri Jonas
Frederic S. Mishkin

Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects
w9666 Barry Eichengreen
Alan M. Taylor

The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas
w9660 Jon Faust
John H. Rogers
Eric Swanson
Jonathan H. Wright

Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data
w9646 Kazuo Ogawa
Financial Distress and Employment: The Japanese Case in the 90s
w9624 Charles Calomiris
Joseph R. Mason

How to Restructure Failed Banking Systems: Lessons from the U.S. in the 1930's and Japan in the 1990's
w9623 Willem H. Buiter
Deflation: Prevention and Cure
w9620 Thorsten Beck
Asli Demirguc-Kunt
Ross Levine

Bank Supervision and Corporate Finance
w9589 Takatoshi Ito
Kimie Harada

Market Evaluations of Banking Fragility in Japan: Japan Premium, Stock Prices, and Credit Derivatives
w9577 Laurence Ball
Niamh Sheridan

Does Inflation Targeting Matter?
w9566 Alexei Onatski
Noah Williams

Modeling Model Uncertainty
w9558 Jess Behabib
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability
w9552 Eric M. Leeper
Jennifer E. Roush

Putting 'M' back in Monetary Policy
w9551 Rajeev Dehejia
Adriana Lleras-Muney

Why Does Financial Development Matter? The United States from 1900 to 1940
w9548 Jonathan A. Parker
Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns
w9547 John Y. Campbell
George Chacko
Jorge Rodriguez
Luis M. Viciera

Strategic Asset Allocation in a Continuous-Time VAR Model
w9538 Jonathan A. Parker
Christian Julliard

Consumption Risk and Cross-Sectional Returns
w9529 Michael W. Brandt
Kenneth A. Kavajecz

Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve
w9522 Hugh Rockoff
Deflation, Silent Runs, and Bank Holidays, in the Great Contraction
w9520 Michael D. Bordo
Angela Redish

Is Deflation depressing? Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard
w9491 Laurence Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies
w9486 Lars E. O. Svensson
Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization
w9462 Todd Sinai
Nicholas S. Souleles

Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk
w9459 Jean Boivin
Marc P. Giannoni

Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?
w9435 Silvana Tenreyro
Robert J. Barro

Economic Effects of Currency Unions
w9430 Lars E. O. Svensson
Michael Woodford

Optimal Policy with Partial Information in a Forward-Looking Model: Certainty-Equivalence Redux
w9421 Lars E. O. Svensson
What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules
w9420 Marc P. Giannoni
Michael Woodford

Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications
w9419 Marc P. Giannoni
Michael Woodford

Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory
w9390 Peter N. Ireland
Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?
w9388 Eduardo Jallath-Coria
Tridas Mukhopadhyay
Amir Yaron

How Well Do Banks Manage Their Reserves?
w9384 Anil K. Kashyap
Sorting Out Japan's Financial Crisis
w9375 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?
w9373 Casey B. Mulligan
Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution
w9370 V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe

Time Consistency and Free-Riding in a Monetary Union
w9368 Mitsuhiro Fukao
Financial Sector Profitability and Double-Gearing
w9355 Aaron Tornell
Frank Westermann

The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries
w9348 Jeeman Jung
Robert J. Shiller

One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market
w9341 Michael T. Belongia
Peter N. Ireland

The Own-Price of Money and a New Channel of Monetary Transmission
w9333 Peter L. Rousseau
Historical Perspectives on Financial Development and Economic Growth
w9321 Anna J. Schwartz
Asset Price Inflation and Monetary Policy
w9320 Julio J. Rotemberg
Customer Anger at Price Increases, Time Variation in the Frequency of Price Changes and Monetary Policy
w9297 Stanley Fischer
Financial Crises and Reform of the International Financial System
w9291 Frederic S. Mishkin
The Role of Output Stabilization in the Conduct of Monetary Policy
w9276 Barry Eichengreen
Still Fettered After All These Years
w9274 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy
w9235 Laurence Ball
Short-Run Money Demand
w9218 Bennett T. McCallum
Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability
w9203 Martin Feldstein
The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment
w9196 Jonathan Parker
Bruce Preston

Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations
w9178 John H. Cochrane
Monika Piazzesi

Bond Risk Premia
w9176 Kerry A. Odell
Marc D. Weidenmier

Real Shock, Monetary Aftershock: The San Francisco Earthquake and the Panic of 1907
w9174 John C. Driscoll
Steinar Holden

Coordination, Fair Treatment and Inflation Persistence
w9137 Gary Gorton
Lixin Huang

Banking Panics and the Origin of Central Banking
w9127 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
w9102 Gary Gorton
Lixin Huang

Bank Panics and the Endogeneity of Central Banking
w9075 John Y. Campbell
Luis M. Viceira
Joshua S. White

Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors
w9072 Alberto Alesina
Robert J. Barro
Silvana Tenreyro

Optimal Currency Areas
w9063 Eric M. Leeper
Tao Zha

Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions
w9062 Jonathan Kearns
Roberto Rigobon

Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case
w9019 Michael D. Bordo
Antu Panini Murshid

Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets
w9005 Lawrence J. Christiano
Christopher Gust
Jorge Roldos

Monetary Policy in a Financial Crisis
w8992 Frederic S. Mishkin
Eugene N. White

U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy
w8972 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Use and Meaning of Words in Central Banking: Inflation Targeting, Credibility, and Transparency
w8970 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Hans Genberg
Sushil Wadhwani

Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework
w8966 Michael D. Bordo
Olivier Jeanne

Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy
w8940 Laurence Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw

The NAIRU in Theory and Practice
w8937 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises
w8935 Stephen G. Cecchetti
The New Economy and the Challenges for Macroeconomic Policy
w8930 Stanley Fischer
Ratna Sahay
Carlos A. Vegh

Modern Hyper- and High Inflations
w8925 Lars E.O. Svensson
Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?
w8919 Julio J. Rotemberg
Stochastic Technical Progress, Nearly Smooth Trends and Distinct Business Cycles
w8912 Stefania Albanesi
V.V. Chari
Lawrence J. Christiano

Expectation Traps and Monetary Policy
w8905 Jordi Gali
Tommaso Monacelli

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy
w8882 Christian Jensen
Bennett C. McCallum

The Non-Optimality of Proposed Monetary Policy Rules Under Timeless-Perspective Commitment
w8870 Richard Clarida
Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler

A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis
w8865 Steinar Holden
The Costs of Price Stability - Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Europe
w8864 Alejandro Reynoso
Can Subsidiaries of Foreign Banks Contribute to the Stability of the Forex Market in Emerging Economies? A Look at Some Evidence from the Mexican...
w8856 Cormac O. Grada
Eugene N. White

Who Panics During Panics? Evidence from a Nineteenth Century Savings Bank
w8850 Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler
J. David Lopez-Salido

Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations
w8839 John H. Cochrane
Monika Piazzesi

The Fed and Interest Rates: A High-Frequency Identification
w8837 Martin Feldstein
Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Overview of Prevention and Management
w8821 Peter N. Ireland
Implementing the Friedman Rule
w8800 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

A Rehabilitation of Monetary Policy in the 1950s
w8785 Laurence Ball
Robert Tchaidze

The Fed and the New Economy
w8768 Jordi Gali
J. David Lopez-Salido
Javier Valles

Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance
w8767 Jordi Gali
New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle
w8748 Ariel Burstein
Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo

Why Are Rates of Inflation So Low After Large Devaluations?
w8717 Michael D. Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

Charles Goodhart's Contributions to the History of Monetary Institutions
w8716 Barry Eichengreen
Michael D. Bordo

Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization
w8700 Michael F. Bryan
Stephen G. Cecchetti
Roisin O'Sullivan

Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation
w8695 Christopher D. Carroll
The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations
w8690 Steinar Holden
John C. Driscoll

A Note on Inflation Persistence
w8684 Carlos A. Vegh
Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, and Inflation Targeting: Some Basic Equivalences
w8681 Andrew Atkeson
Patrick J. Kehoe

The Advantage of Transparent Instruments of Monetary Policy
w8674 Michael Woodford
Monetary Policy in the Information Economy
w8673 Michael Woodford
Imperfect Common Knowledge and the Effects of Monetary Policy
w8671 Sebastian Edwards
I. Igal Magendzo

Dollarization, Inflation and Growth
w8669 Hans-Werner Sinn
Risk Taking, Limited Liability and the Competition of Bank Regulators
w8647 Alberto Alesina
Ignazio Angeloni
Ludger Schuknecht

What Does the European Union Do?
w8646 Alberto Alesina
Ignazio Angeloni
Federico Etro

Institutional Rules for Federations
w8645 Alberto Alesina
Ignazio Angeloni
Federico Etro

The Political Economy of International Unions
w8617 Frederic S. Mishkin
The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy
w8614 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps
w8604 Richard Clarida
Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler

Optimal Monetary Policy in Closed versus Open Economies: An Integrated Approach
w8603 Richard Clarida
The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies
w8597 Boyan Jovanovic
Peter L. Rousseau

Liquidity Effects in the Bond Market
w8584 Michael D. Bordo
Marc Flandreau

Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization
w8583 Michael D. Bordo
Michael J. Dueker
David C. Wheelock

Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Stability: The United Kingdom 1796-1999
w8582 Michael D. Bordo
William G. Dewald

Bond Market Inflation Expectations in Industrial Countries: Historical Comparisons
w8545 Michael D. Bordo
Harold James

The Adam Klug Memorial Lecture: Haberler versus Nurkse: The Case for Floating Exchange Rates as an Alternative to Bretton Woods?
w8539 Lawrence J. Christiano
Massimo Rostagno

Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule
w8496 Christopher D. Carroll
Miles S. Kimball

Liquidity Constraints and Precautionary Saving
w8471 N. Gregory Mankiw
U.S. Monetary Policy During the 1990s
w8429 Michael D. Bordo
Ronald MacDonald

The Inter-War Gold Exchange Standard: Credibility and Monetary Independence
w8426 Robert Barsky
Mark Bergen
Shantanu Dutta
Daniel Levy

What Can the Price Gap between Branded and Private Label Products Tell Us about Markups?
w8421 Laurence Ball
Robert Moffitt

Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve
w8410 Nicholas S. Souleles
Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data
w8403 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum
Charles Evans

Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
w8397 Frederic S. Mishkin
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?
w8389 Robert B. Barsky
Lutz Kilian

Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative
w8387 Christopher D. Carroll
A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and Without Liquidity Constraints (Expanded Version)
w8379 Ben S. Bernanke
Jean Boivin

Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment
w8363 Andrew Ang
Monika Piazzesi

A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables
w8354 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Stefan Krause

Financial Structure, Macroeconomic Stability and Monetary Policy
w8353 Hamid Mehran
Joseph Tracy

The Impact of Employee Stock Options on the Evolution of Compensation in the 1990s
w8350 Roberto Rigobon
Brian Sack

Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market
w8322 Robert Dekle
Kenneth M. Kletzer

Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia
w8320 Douglas Staiger
James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s
w8314 David B. Gross
Nicholas S. Souleles

Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data
w8290 N. Gregory Mankiw
Ricardo Reis

Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
w8289 Peter Blair Henry
Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?
w8277 Craig Burnside
Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo

On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises
w8255 Lars E.O. Svensson
Michael Woodford

Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy under Asymmetric Information
w8246 Monika Piazzesi
An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects
w8234 Todd W. Allen
Christopher D. Carroll

Individual Learning About Consumption
w8233 Christopher D. Carroll
Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Permanent Income
w8226 Bennett T. McCallum
Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?
w8225 Bennett T. McCallum
Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap
w8221 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update
w8218 Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler
J. David Lopez-Salido

European Inflation Dynamics
w8180 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices
w8175 Bennett T. McCallum
Edward Nelson

Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices
w8174 Bennett T. McCallum
Monetary Policy Analysis in Models Without Money
w8136 Peter N. Ireland
The Real Balance Effect
w8115 Peter N. Ireland
Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle
w8113 Chang-Tai Hsieh
Christina D. Romer

Was the Federal Reserve Fettered? Devaluation Expectations in the 1932 Monetary Expansion
w8100 Michael Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

From the Exchange Stabilization Fund to the International Monetary Fund
w8085 Hans-Werner Sinn
Michael Reutter

The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland
w8072 Michael Woodford
Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability
w8071 Michael Woodford
Inflation Stabilization and Welfare
w8057 Benjamin M. Friedman
Monetary Policy
w8047 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Role of Interest Rates in Federal Reserve Policymaking
w8025 Stefan Gerlach
Lars E.O. Svensson

Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?
w7981 Judith A. Chevalier
Anil K. Kashyap
Peter E. Rossi

Why Don't Prices Rise During Periods of Peak Demand? Evidence from Scanner Data
w7988 Laurence Ball
Near-Rationality and Inflation in Two Monetary Regimes
w7957 Lars E.O. Svensson
The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap
w7955 Benjamin M. Friedman
Decoupling at the Margin: The Threat to Monetary Policy from the Electronic Revolution in Banking
w7953 Lars E.O. Svensson
Michael Woodford

Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy
w7926 Frederic S. Mishkin
Prudential Supervision: Why Is It Important and What are the Issues?
w7919 Charles W. Calomiris
Joseph R. Mason

Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression
w7916 Bennett T. McCallum
The Present and Future of Monetary Policy Rules
w7915 Bennett T. McCallum
Edward Nelson

Timeless Perspectives vs. Discretionary Monetary Policy In Forward-Looking Models
w7910 Laurence Ball
Policy Rules and External Shocks
w7909 Alan S. Blinder
John Morgan

Are Two Heads Better Than One?: An Experimental Analysis of Group vs. Individual Decisionmaking
w7908 Miguel Casares
Bennett T. McCallum

An Optimizing IS-LM Framework with Endogenous Investment
w7900 Michael D. Bordo
Antu P. Murshid

Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?
w7884 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment
w7044 Frederic S. Mishkin
International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes
w6518 Arturo Estrella
Frederic S. Mishkin

Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty
w7864 Maurice Obstfeld
Kenneth Rogoff

Do We Really Need a New International Monetary Compact?
w7853 Michael Woodford
Monetary Policy in a World Without Money
w7847 James D. Hamilton
Oscar Jorda

A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target
w7839 Christopher D. Carroll
'Risky Habits' and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Out of Permanent Income, or, How Much Would a Permanent Tax Cut Boost Japanese Consumption?
w7826 Christopher D. Carroll
Portfolios of the Rich
w7618 Frederic S. Mishkin
Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries
w7598 Lars E.O. Svensson
The First Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?
w7102 Frederic S. Mishkin
Lessons from the Asian Crisis
w7777 Maurice Obstfeld
Kenneth Rogoff

The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?
w7751 Anna J. Schwartz
The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention
w7740 Ricardo J. Caballero
Arvind Krishnamurthy

International Liquidity Management: Sterilization Policy in Illiquid Financial Markets
w7725 Bennett T. McCallum
Alternative Monetary Policy Rules: A Comparison with Historical Settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan
w7178 Lars E.O. Svensson
Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?
w6675 Bennett T. McCallum
Edward Nelson

Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model
w6545 Lars E. O. Svensson
Open-Economy Inflation Targeting
w7715 Charles W. Calomiris
Andrew Powell

Can Emerging Market Bank Regulators Establish Credible Discipline? The Case of Argentina, 1992-1999
w7689 Allen N. Berger
Margaret K. Kyle
Joseph M. Scalise

Did U.S. Bank Supervisors Get Tougher During the Credit Crunch? Did They Get Easier During the Banking Boom? Did It Matter to Bank Lending?
w7681 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Nelson C. Mark
Robert J. Sonora

Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank
w7677 Bennett T. McCallum
Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
w7675 Marvin J. Barth III
Valerie A. Ramey

The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission
w7672 John V. Leahy
Joseph Zeira

The Timing of Purchases and Aggregate Fluctuations
w7647 Benjamin M. Friedman
What Have We Learned from the Reagan Deficits and Their Disappearance?
w7629 Mark Carey
Dimensions of Credit Risk and Their Relationship to Economic Capital Requirements
w7617 Frederic S. Mishkin
Miguel A. Savastano

Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America
w7607 Russell W. Cooper
Hubert Kempf

Designing Stabilization Policy in a Monetary Union
w7602 J. Bradford DeLong
Cornucopia: The Pace of Economic Growth in the Twentieth Century
w7589 John Y. Campbell
Asset Pricing at the Millennium
w7582 Randall S. Kroszner
Philip E. Strahan

Obstacles to Optimal Policy: The Interplay of Politics and Economics in Shaping Bank Supervision and Regulation Reforms
w7087 Bennett T. McCallum
Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion
w7571 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy
w7569 J. Bradford DeLong
The Shape of Twentieth Century Economic History
w7559 Ben Bernanke
Mark Gertler

Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility
w7551 Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler

Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis
w7550 Olivier Blanchard
What do we know about Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell did not?
w7549 Mark Gertler
Cara S. Lown

The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications
w7547 Robert Barsky
Lutz Kilian

A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s
w7528 Peter L. Rousseau
Jacksonian Monetary Policy, Specie Flows, and the Panic of 1837
w7515 Craig Burnside
Martin Eichenbaum
Jonas D.M. Fisher

Fiscal Shocks in an Efficiency Wage Model
w7511 Peter N. Ireland
Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability
w7498 John H. Cochrane
Money as Stock: Price Level Determination with no Money Demand
w7490 Alexei Onatski
James H. Stock

Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy
w7482 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Erica L. Groshen

Understanding Inflation: Implications for Monetary Policy
w7461 David Romer
Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve
w7459 Craig Burnside
Martin Eichenbaum
Jonas D.M. Fisher

Assessing the Effects of Fiscal Shocks
w7430 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking
w7448 Peter L. Rousseau
Richard Sylla

Emerging Financial Markets and Early U.S. Growth
w7431 Douglas W. Diamond
Raghuram G. Rajan

A Theory of Bank Capital
w7426 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Michael Ehrmann

Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes
w7420 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps
w7396 Owen Lamont
Christopher Polk

The Diversification Discount: Cash Flows vs. Returns
w7395 Bennett T. McCallum
Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Methodological Issues
w7393 Bennett T. McCallum
Theoretical Issues Pertaining to Monetary Unions
w7386 Gerardo della Paolera
Alan M. Taylor

Internal Versus External Convertibility and Developing-Country FinancialCrises: Lessons from the Argentine Bank Bailout of the 1930's
w7365 Michael D. Bordo
Lars Jonung

The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?
w7333 James L. Heckman
Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economcs: A Twentieth Century Retrospective
w7319 Randall S. Kroszner
Philip E. Strahan

Bankers on Boards: Monitoring, Conflicts of Interest, and Lender Liability
w7313 Maurice Obstfeld
Kenneth Rogoff

New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models
w7302 Willem H. Buiter
The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
w7282 Olivier Blanchard
Justin Wolfers

The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence
w7276 Lars E.O. Svensson
Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability
w6390 Frederic S. Mishkin
International Capital Movements, Financial Volatility and Financial Instability
w7269 Olivier Blanchard
Roberto Perotti

An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output
w7261 Michael Woodford
Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia
w7253 Michael Hutchison
Kathleen McDill

Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison
w7251 Joe Peek
Eric S. Rosengren

Determinants of the Japan Premium: Actions Speak Louder Than Words
w7245 Willem H. Buiter
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

Liquidity Traps: How to Avoid Them and How to Escape Them
w7234 Peter N. Ireland
Expectations, Credibility, and Time-Consistent Monetary Policy
w7231 Carlo A. Favero
Francesco Giavazzi
Luca Flabbi

The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Banks' Balance Sheets
w7207 Alberto Alesina
Silvia Ardagna
Roberto Perotti
Fabio Schiantarelli

Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment
w7186 Michael Bordo
Michael Edelstein

Was Adherence to the Gold Standard a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval" During the Interwar Period?
w7179 Glenn D. Rudebusch
Lars E.O. Svensson

Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data
w7177 Lars E.O. Svensson
Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem
w7165 John C. Driscoll
Harumi Ito

Sticky Prices, Coordination and Collusion
w7161 Alan S. Blinder
Central Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?
w7160 Robert J. Shiller
Designing Indexed Units of Account
w7152 Jon Faust
Lars E.O. Svensson

The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy
w7151 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism
rogo99-1 Kenneth Rogoff and Charles Wyplosz
International Seminar on Macroeconomics 1998
w7147 Richard Clarida
Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler

The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective
w7143 Craig Burnside
Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo

Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes
w7125 Michael D. Bordo
Ehsan U. Choudhri
Anna J. Schwartz

Was Expansionary Monetary Policy Feasible During the Great Contraction? An Examination of the Gold Standard Constraint
w7116 Casey B. Mulligan
Microfoundations and Macro Implications of Indivisible Labor
w7113 Barry Eichengreen
Ashoka Mody

Lending Booms, Reserves, and the Sustainability of Short-Term Debt: Inferences from the Pricing of Syndicated Bank Loans
w7090 Susanto Basu
Alan M. Taylor

Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective
w7088 Bennett T. McCallum
Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis: The Roles of Theory and Evidence
w6655 Frederic S. Mishkin
Financial Consolidation: Dangers and Opportunities
w7055 Owen Lamont
Economic Tracking Portfolios
w7029 John Y. Campbell
Joao F. Cocco
Francisco J. Gomes
Pascal J. Maenhout

Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model
w7023 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Forecasting Inflation
w7017 Lawrence J. Christiano
Christopher J. Gust

Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model
w6965 Frederic S. Mishkin
International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes
w6962 Anil K. Kashyap
Raghuram Rajan
Jeremy C. Stein

Banks as Liquidity Providers: An Explanation for the Co-Existence of Lending and Deposit-Taking
w6948 Christina D. Romer
Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations
w6892 Fredric S. Mishkin
Philip E. Strahan

What Will Technology Do to Financial Structure?
w6883 Alberto Alesina
Romain Wacziarg

Is Europe Going Too Far?
tayl99-1 John B. Taylor

Monetary Policy Rules
w6862 Michael D. Bordo
Carlos A. Vegh

What If Alexander Hamilton Had Been Argentinean? A Comparison of the Early Monetary Experiences of Argentina and the United States
w6824 Michael D. Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

Under What Circumstances, Past and Present, Have International Rescues of Countries in Financial Distress Been Successful?
w6812 Simon Gilchrist
John C. Williams

Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis
w6793 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Monetary Policy and the Well-Being of the Poor
w6790 Lars E.O. Svensson
Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule
w6768 John B. Taylor
An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules
w6760 Laurence Ball
Policy Rules for Open Economies
w6730 Takatoshi Ito
Yuri Nagatake Sasaki

Impacts of the Basle Capital Standard on Japanese Banks' Behavior
w6692 Peter Temin
The Causes of American Business Cycles: An Essay in Economic Historiography
w6660 Hasan Bakhshi
Andrew G. Haldane
Neal Hatch

Some Costs and Benefits of Price Stability in the United Kingdom
w6652 Simon Gilchrist
Charles Himmelberg

Investment, Fundamentals and Finance
w6641 Robert J. Shiller
Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational, and International Risk Sharing
w6636 Olivier Blanchard
Pedro Portugal

What Hides Behind an Umemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Unemployment
w6632 John Shea
What Do Technology Shocks Do?
w6618 Julio J. Rotemberg
Michael Woodford

Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model
w6608 Ben S. Bernanke
Ilian Mihov

The Liquidity Effect and Long-Run Neutrality
w6607 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series
w6599 Bennett T. McCallum
Edward Nelson

Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model
w6597 Laurence Ball
Another Look at Long-Run Money Demand
w6596 Jagadeesh Gokhale
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Medicare from the Perspective of Generational Accounting
rose98-1 Andrew K. Rose and Guido Tabellini

International Seminar on Macroeconomics 1997
w6570 Andrew Levin
Volker Wieland
John C. Williams

Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
w6568 Christopher D. Carroll
Byung-Kun Rhee
Changyong Rhee

Does Cultural Origin Affect Saving Behavior? Evidence from Immigrants
w6549 Christopher D. Carroll
Why Do the Rich Save So Much?
w6543 Andrew G. Haldane
Nicoletta Batini

Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy
w6528 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series
w6522 Willem H. Buiter
Notes on "A Code for Fiscal Stability"
w6512 Glenn D. Rudebusch
Lars E. O. Svensson

Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting
w6492 Paul R. Bergin
Robert C. Feenstra

Staggered Price Setting and Endogenous Persistence
w6471 Matthew B. Canzoneri
Robert E. Cumby
Behzad T. Diba

Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?
w6456 Bennett T. McCallum
Indeterminacy, Bubbles, and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination
w6455 Ben Bernanke
Mark Gertler
Simon Gilchrist

The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework
w6452 Jon Faust
Lars E. O. Svensson

Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals
w6445 Julio J. Rotemberg
Cyclical Movements in Wages and Consumption in a Bargaining Model of Unemployment
w6442 Richard Clarida
Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler

Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory
w6436 Michael D. Bordo
Barry Eichengreen

The Rise and Fall of a Barbarous Relic: The Role of Gold in the International Monetary SYstem
w6400 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum
Charles L. Evans

Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?
w6396 Willem H. Buiter
The Young Person's Guide to Neutrality, Price Level Indeterminacy, Interest Rate Pegs, and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level
w6126 Frederic S. Mishkin
Adam S. Posen

Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries
w6122 Frederic S. Mishkin
Strategies for Controlling Inflation
w6371 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum
Charles L. Evans

Modeling Money
w6369 Rudiger Dornbusch
Carlo A. Favero
Francesco Giavazzi

The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank
w6356 Robert J. Shiller
Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience
w6329 Torsten Persson
Guido Tabellini

Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy
w6326 Casey B. Mulligan
Pecuniary Incentives to Work in the U.S. during World War II
w6317 Robert J. Barro
Myopia and Inconsistency in the Neoclassical Growth Model
w6306 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Central Bank Policy Rules: Conceptual Issues and Practical Considerations
w6298 Christopher D. Carroll
Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)
w6291 Bennett T. McCallum
The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting
w6289 Herschel I. Grossman
"Make Us a King": Anarchy, Predation, and the State
w6258 Olivier Jeanne
Generating Real Persistent Effects of Monetary Shocks: How Much Nominal Rigidity Do We Really Need?
w6254 Richard Clarida
Jordi Gali
Mark Gertler

Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence
w6226 Christopher L. Foote
The Surprising Symmetry of Gross Job Flows
w6210 Owen Lamont
Christopher Polk
Jesus Saa-Requejo

Financial Constraints and Stock Returns
w6201 Michael D. Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance: The Historical Record
w6200 Martin Feldstein
Capital Income Taxes and the Benefit of Price Stability
w6197 Robert J. Barro
Optimal Management of Indexed and Nominal Debt
w6188 Michael Woodford
Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World
w6183 Michael F. Bryan
Stephen G. Cecchetti
Rodney L. Wiggins II

Efficient Inflation Estimation
w6170 Karl-Heinz Todter
Gerhard Ziebarth

Price Stability vs. Low Inflation in Germany: An Analysis of Costs and Benefits
w6157 Ben S. Bernanke
Michael Woodford

Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy
w6138 Christopher D. Carroll
Jody Overland
David N. Weil

Comparison Utility in a Growth Model
w6117 David Romer
Misconceptions and Political Outcomes
w6115 Michael D. Bordo
Ronald MacDonald

Violations of the `Rules of the Game' and the Credibility of the Classical Gold Standard, 1880-1914
w6094 Russell Cooper
Dean Corbae

Financial Fragility and the Great Depression
w6081 Christopher D. Carroll
Wendy E. Dunn

Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets
w6071 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher J. Erceg
Charles L. Evans

Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression
w6064 Mihir A. Desai
James R. Hines Jr.

Excess Capital Flows and the Burden of Inflation in Open Economies
w6063 Eugene N. White
The Legacy of Deposit Insurance: The Growth, Spread, and Cost of Insuring Financial Intermediaries
w6062 Javier Andres
Ignacio Hernando

Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD
w6061 Erica L. Groshen
Mark E. Schweitzer

Identifying Inflation's Grease and Sand Effects in the Labor Market
w6060 Barry Eichengreen
Peter Temin

The Gold Standard and the Great Depression
w6056 Anil K. Kashyap
Jeremy C. Stein

What Do a Million Banks Have to Say About the Transmission of Monetary Policy?
w6046 Darrel Cohen
Kevin A. Hassett
R. Glenn Hubbard

Inflation and the User Cost of Capital: Does Inflation Still Matter?
w6024 Alberto Alesina
Romain Wacziarg

Openness, Country Size and the Government
w6016 Bennett T. McCallum
Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules
w6015 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Understanding the Great Depression: Lessons for Current Policy
w6000 Mark Gertler
Government Debt and Social Security in a Life-Cycle Economy
w5997 Herschel I. Grossman
Taejoon Han

Sovereign Debt and Consumption Smoothing
w5996 R. Glenn Hubbard
Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment
w5980 Matthew D. Shapiro
David W. Wilcox

Alternative Strategies for Aggregating Prices in the CPI
w5963 Charles W. Calomiris
David C. Wheelock

Was the Great Depression a Watershed for American Monetary Policy?
w5962 Lars E. O. Svensson
Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions
w5954 Casey B. Mulligan
Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin

The Optimum Quantity of Money: Theory and Evidence
w5952 Laurence Ball
Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy
t0086 Lars Peter Hansen
Kenneth J. Singleton

Efficient Estimation of Linear Asset Pricing Models with Moving-Average Errors
w5947 Sergio Rebelo
Danyang Xie

On the Optimality of Interest Rate Smoothing
w5944 Pierluigi Balduzzi
Giuseppe Bertola
Silverio Foresi
Leora Klapper

Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates
w5908 Martin Feldstein
The CEA: From Stabilization to Resource Allocation
w5893 Ben S. Bernanke
Frederic S. Mishkin

Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?
w5883 Michael D. Bordo
Barry Eichengreen

Implications of the Great Depression for the Development of the International Monetary System
w5882 Willem H. Buiter
Ricardo Lago
Helene Rey

A Portfolio Approach to a Cross-Sectoral and Cross-National Investment Strategy in Transition Economies
w5875 Bennett T. McCallum
Edward Nelson

An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis
rome97-1 Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer

Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy
w5857 John Y. Campbell
Luis M. Viceira

Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying
w5849 Frederic S. Mishkin
Bank Consolidation: A Central Banker's Perspective
w5845 Arturo Estrella
Frederic S. Mishkin

Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?
w5821 David G. Barr
John Y. Campbell

Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices
h0067 Michael D. Bordo
Angela Redish

A Comparison of the Stability and Efficiency of the Canadian and American Banking Systems 1870-1925
w5809 V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe
Ellen R. McGrattan

Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?
w5804 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum
Charles L. Evans

Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison
w5797 Lars E. O. Svensson
Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets
w5793 Michael F. Bryan
Stephen G. Cecchetti

Inflation and the Distribution of Price Changes
w5788 Christopher D. Carroll
Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis
w5786 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers
w5772 Mats Persson
Torsten Persson
Lars E. O. Svensson

Debt, Cash Flow and Inflation Incentives: A Swedish Example
w5764 Ben S. Bernanke
Ilian Mihov

What Does the Bundesbank Target?
w5730 Alberto Alesina
Roberto Perotti

Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects
w5719 Lars E. O. Svensson
Price Level Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?
w5710 Michael D. Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

Why Clashes Between Internal and External Stability Goals End in Currency Crises, 1797-1994
w5699 Anna J. Schwartz
From Obscurity to Notoriety: A Biography of the Exchange Stabilization Fund
w5694 Alberto Alesina
Enrico Spolaore

International Conflict, Defense Spending and the Size of Countries
t0201 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model
w5692 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates
w5684 Michael Woodford
Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?
w5660 Michael Woodford
Loan Commitments and Optimal Monetary Policy
w5627 Guy Debelle
Owen Lamont

Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from US Cities
w5614 Alberto Alesina
Tamim Bayoumi

The Costs and Benefits of Fiscal Rules: Evidence from U.S. States
w5611 J. Bradford De Long
Keynesianism, Pennsylvania Avenue Style: Some Economic Consequences of the Employment Act of 1946
w5610 John Y. Campbell
Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience
w5607 N. Gregory Mankiw
James M. Poterba

Stock Market Yields and the Pricing of Municipal Bonds
w5600 Frederic S. Mishkin
Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective
w5597 Bennett T. McCallum
Crucial Issues Concerning Central Bank Independence
w5590 Matthew D. Shapiro
David W. Wilcox

Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation
w5587 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
w5586 Alberto Alesina
Ricardo Hausmann
Rudolf Hommes
Ernesto Stein

Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Latin America
w5581 Richard Clarida
Mark Gertler

How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy
w5579 Bennett T. McCallum
Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and in General
w5575 Christina D. Romer
Inflation and the Growth Rate of Output
w5573 Rudi Dornbusch
Debt and Monetary Policy: The Policy Issues
w5557 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Institutions for Monetary Stability
w5556 Alberto Alesina
Roberto Perotti

Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions
t0196 Matthew D. Shapiro
David W. Wilcox

Generating Non-Standard Multivariate Distributions with an Application to Mismeasurement in the CPI
h0084 J. Bradford De Long
America's Only Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s
w5540 Marta Campillo
Jeffrey A. Miron

Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries?
w5539 Robert J. Shiller
Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
w5538 David Card
Dean Hyslop

Does Inflation "Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market"?
w5520 Laurence Ball
Disinflation and the NAIRU
w5504 Casey B. Mulligan
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

Adoption of Financial Technologies: Implications for Money Demand and Monetary Policy
w5499 Owen Lamont
Cash Flow and Investment: Evidence from Internal Capital Markets
w5497 Michael D. Bordo
Tamim Bayoumi

Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions
w5477 Douglas Staiger
James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?
t0193 John Shea
Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure
w5465 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Rise and Fall of Money Growth Targets as Guidelines for U.S. Monetary Policy
w5464 Frederic S. Mishkin
The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy
w5452 Michael Bruno
William Easterly

Inflation's Children: Tales of Crises that Beget Reforms
w5402 Owen Lamont
Do "Shortages" Cause Inflation?
w5382 Susanto Basu
John G. Fernald

Aggregate Productivity and the Productivity of Aggregates
w5379 Arturo Estrella
Frederic S. Mishkin

Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators
w5371 Michael D. Bordo
Bruce Mizrach
Anna J. Schwartz

Real Versus Pseudo-International Systemic Risk: Some Lessons from History
w5363 Andrew B. Abel
Janice C. Eberly

The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation
w5344 Laurence Ball
Dean Croushore

Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy
w5338 Joshua Aizenman
Ricardo Hausmann

The Impact of Inflation on Budgetary Discipline
w5336 Susanto Basu
Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?
w5326 Robert J. Barro
Inflation and Economic Growth
w5310 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Anil K. Kashyap

International Cycles
w5305 John Shea
Complementarities and Comovements
w5304 John Shea
Comovement in Cities
w5284 Owen Lamont
Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters
w5279 Arturo Estrella
Frederic S. Mishkin

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Role in Monetary Policy for The European Central Bank
w5269 V. V. Chari
Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum

Inside Money, Outside Money and Short Term Interest Rates
w5263 Laurence Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw

What Do Budget Deficits Do?
w5258 Jeffrey A. Miron
J. Joseph Beaulieu

What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?
w5251 Lars E.O. Svensson
Optimal Inflation Targets, `Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts
w5217 Jeremy C. Stein
An Adverse Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy
w5214 Alberto Alesina
Roberto Perotti

Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries
w5213 Robert B. Barsky
Miles S. Kimball
F. Thomas Juster
Matthew D. Shapiro

Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey
w5212 Benjamin M. Friedman
Does Monetary Policy Affect Real Economic Activity?: Why Do We Still Ask This Question?
w5210 Nicholas Economides
R. Glenn Hubbard
Darius Palia

The Political Economy of Branching Restrictions and Deposit Insurance: A Model of Monopolistic Competition among Small and Large Banks
w5204 Michael Woodford
Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate
w5191 Maurice Obstfeld
Kenneth Rogoff

The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates
w5186 Daniel Feenberg
Jeffrey A. Miron

Improving the Accessibility of the NBER's Historical Data
w5173 Michael F. Bryan
Stephen G. Cecchetti

The Seasonality of Consumer Prices
w5161 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy
w5156 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Chudozie Okongwu

Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Capital Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence
w5154 John H. Cochrane
What do the VARs Mean?: Measuring the Output Effects of Monetary Policy
w5146 Ben S. Bernanke
Mark Gertler

Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission
w5145 Ben S. Bernanke
Ilian Mihov

Measuring Monetary Policy
w5141 Benjamin M. Friedman
Economic Implications of Changing Share Ownership
w5140 Willem H. Buiter
Giancarlo Corsetti
Paolo A. Pesenti

A Center-Periphery Model of Monetary Coordination and Exchange Rate Crises
w5109 Herschel I. Grossman
American Fiscal Policy in the 1990's
w5096 Robert C. Merton
Financial Innovation and the Management and Regulation of Financial Institutions
w5080 Frederic S. Mishkin
John Simon

An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia
w5075 Bennett T. McCallum
Two Fallacies Concerning Central Bank Independence
w5064 Stanley Fischer
Modern Approaches to Central Banking
w5050 Alberto Alesina
Enrico Spolaore

On the Number and Size of Nations
w5046 Miles S. Kimball
The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model
w5045 John H. Boyd
Mark Gertler

Are Banks Dead? Or Are the Reports Greatly Exaggerated?
w5043 Frederic S. Mishkin
The Rational Expectations Revolution: A Review Article of: Preston J. Miller, ed.:The Rational Expectations Revolution, Readings from the Front Line
w5031 John Y. Campbell
Some Lessons from the Yield Curve
w5011 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Anil K. Kashyap
David W. Wilcox

Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence
w4993 Franklin R. Edwards
Frederic S. Mishkin

The Decline of Traditional Banking: Implications for Financial Stabilityand Regulatory Policy
w4985 Lars E.O. Svensson
The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target
w4977 R. Glenn Hubbard
Is There a `Credit Channel' for Monetary Policy?
w4969 Benjamin M. Friedman
Kenneth N. Kuttner

Indicator Properties of the Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons from Recent Experiences
w4948 Julio J. Rotemberg
Prices, Output and Hours: An Empirical Analysis Based on a Sticky Price Model
t0171 Michael T. K. Horvath
Mark W. Watson

Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known
w4938 Bennett T. McCallum
Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w4919 Fumio Hayashi
Akihiko Matsui

A Model of Fiat Money and Barter
w4898 Barry Eichengreen
Andrew K. Rose
Charles Wyplosz

Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System
w4888 James H. Stock
Martin Feldstein

Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing
w4871 Lars E.O. Svensson
Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994
w4860 Michael D. Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990
w4857 Niko Canner
N. Gregory Mankiw
David N. Weil

An Asset Allocation Puzzle
w4855 Anil K. Kashyap
Sticky Prices: New Evidence from Retail Catalogs
w4850 Robert Flood
Michael Mussa

Issues Concerning Nominal Anchors for Monetary Policy
w4848 Charles W. Calomiris
Charles P. Himmelberg
Paul Wachtel

Commercial Paper, Corporate Finance, and the Business Cycle: A Microeconomic Perspective
w4821 Anil K. Kashyap
Jeremy C. Stein

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Balance Sheets
w4817 Susanto Basu
Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare
w4814 Ben S. Bernanke
The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach
w4789 Ben Bernanke
Mark Gertler
Simon Gilchrist

The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality
w4810 Alberto Alesina
Roberto Perotti

The Welfare State and Competitiveness
w4765 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

What Ends Recessions?
t0098 Lucian Arye Bebchuk
Lars A. Stole

Do Short-Term Managerial Objectives Lead to Under- or Over-Investment in Long-Term Projects
w4706 Bennett T. McCallum
A Semi-Classical Model of Price Level Adjustment
w4704 R. Glenn Hubbard
Darius Palia

Executive Pay and Performance: Evidence from the U.S. Banking Industry
w4699 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum
Charles Evans

The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Evidence from the Flow of Funds
w4692 Bennett T. McCallum
Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stability
w4677 Laurence Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw

A Sticky-Price Manifesto
w4663 Campbell R. Harvey
Roger D. Huang

The Impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Operations
w4642 Michael D. Bordo
Dominique Simard
Eugene White

France and the Bretton Woods International Monetary System: 1960-1968
w4637 Alberto Alesina
Roberto Perotti

The Political Economy of Budget Deficits
w4636 Frederic S. Mishkin
Preventing Financial Crises: An International Perspective
w4633 Lars E.O. Svensson
Monetary Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates and Forward Interest Rates as Indicators
w4599 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Role of Judgment and Discretion in the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Consequences of Changing Financial Markets
w4578 Laurence Ball
The Dynamics of High Inflation
w4573 Charles W. Calomiris
Is the Discount Window Necessary? A Penn-Central Perspective
w4565 Stanley Fischer
The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth
w4547 Bernhard Eschweiler
Michael D. Bordo

Rules, Discretion, and Central Bank Independence: The German Experience 1880-1989
w4546 Michael D. Bordo
Hugh Rockoff
Angela Redish

A Comparison of the United States and Canadian Banking Systems in the Twentieth Century: Stability vs. Efficiency?
w4515 Caroline M. Betts
Michael D. Bordo
Angela Redish

A Small Open Economy in Depression: Lessons from Canada in the 1930s
w4505 Michael F. Bryan
Stephen G. Cecchetti

The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation
w4485 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Credit Channel or Credit Actions? An Interpretation of the Postwar Transmission Mechanism
w4481 Michael D. Bordo
Ehsan U. Choudhri
Anna J. Schwartz

Could Stable Money Have Averted The Great Contraction?
w4449 Bennett T. McCallum
Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan
w4439 Robert E. Hall
N. Gregory Mankiw

Nominal Income Targeting
w4421 Takeo Hoshi
Anil Kashyap
David Scharfstein

The Choice Between Public and Private Debt: An Analysis of Post-Deregulation Corporate Financing in Japan
w4415 Michael D. Bordo
Charles L. Evans

Labor Productivity During the Great Depression
w4404 John H. Boyd
Mark Gertler

U.S. Commercial Banking: Trends, Cycles, and Policy
w4382 Takatoshi Ito
Keiko Nosse Hirono

Efficiency of the Tokyo Housing Market
w4379 Michael D. Bordo
Lars Jonung
Pierre Siklos

The Common Development of Institutional Change as Measured by Income Velocity: A Century of Evidence from Industrialized Countries
w4377 Karen K. Lewis
Are Forign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related and Does it Really Matter?
w4368 Bennett T. McCallum
Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues
w4367 Bennett T. McCallum
Macroeconomics After Two Decades of Rational Expectations
w4347 Pierluigi Balduzzi
Giuseppe Bertola
Silverio Foresi

A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w4342 Matthew D. Shapiro
Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect
w4337 Holger C. Wolf
Anti-Tax Revolutions and Symbolic Prosecutions
w4333 Raquel Fernandez
Richard Rogerson

Keeping People Out: Income Distribution, Zoning and the Quality of Public Education
w4332 Richard K. Green
Patric H. Hendershott

Demographic Factors and Real House Prices
w4326 Jeffrey A. Miron
Christina D. Romer
David N. Weil

Historical Perspectives on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
w4325 Martin Feldstein
The Dollar and the Trade Deficit in the 1980s: A Personal View
w4322 Martin Feldstein
Monetary Policy and Inflation in the 1980s: A Personal View
w4317 Anil Kashyap
Jeremy C. Stein

Monetary Policy and Bank Lending
w4310 Michael Bordo
The Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and other Monetary Regimes: An Historical Appraisal
w4306 Laurence Ball
What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?
w4304 Martin Feldstein
James H. Stock

The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP
w4303 Michael F. Bryan
Stephen G. Cecchetti

Measuring Core Inflation
w4298 Graciela Kaminsky
Karen K. Lewis

Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?
w4285 Valerie A. Ramey
How Important is the Credit Channel in the Transmission of Monetary Policy?
w4275 Toru Konishi
Valerie A. Ramey
Clive W.J. Granger

Stochastic Trends and Short-Run Relationships Between Financial Variables and Real Activity
w4271 Martin Eichenbaum
Charles L. Evans

Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates
w4267 Laurence Ball
David Romer

Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices
w4236 Martin Feldstein
The Recent Failure of U.S. Monetary Policy
w4211 Anil K. Kashyap
Owen A. Lamont
Jeremy C. Stein

Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories: A Case Studyof the 1981-82 Recession
w4202 Gary Solon
Robert Barsky
Jonathan A. Parker

Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias
w4184 Federico Sturzenegger
Hyperinflation with Currency Substitution: Introducing an Indexed Currency
w4168 Laurence Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw

Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks
w4166 Charles W. Calomiris
Greenback Resumption and Silver Risk: The Economics and Politics of Monetary Regime Change in the United States, 1862-1900
w4156 Robert King
Mark W. Watson

Testing Long Run Neutrality
w4134 Karen K. Lewis
Martin D. Evans

Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?
w4129 Martin Eichenbaum
Lawrence J. Christiano

Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle
w4117 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Bruce Greenwald

Towards a Reformulation of Monetary Theory: Competitive Banking
w4113 Bennett T. McCallum
A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship
w4103 Federico Sturzenegger
Inflation and Social Welfare in a Model With Endogenous Financial Adaptation
w4089 Laurence Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw

Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations
t0122 Graham Elliott
James H. Stock

Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown
t0121 James H. Stock
Deciding Between I(1) and I(0)
w4082 Ben Bernanke
Frederic Mishkin

Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy: Observations From Six Industrialized Countries
w4062 Nouriel Roubini
Xavier Sala-i-Martin

A Growth Model of Inflation, Tax Evasion, and Financial Repression
w4049 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Georgios Karras

Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression
w4033 Michael D. Bordo
The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: An Historical Overview
w4024 Michael Bordo
Angela Redish

Maximizing Seignorage Revenue During Temporary Suspensions of Convertibility: A Note
w4022 Benjamin M. Friedman
Learning From the Reagan Deficits
w4015 Anil K. Kashyap
Jeremy C. Stein
David W. Wilcox

Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence From the Composition of External Finance
w4005 Mark W. Watson
Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy
w3983 Laurence Ball
Disinflation With Imperfect Credibility
w3974 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum

Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
w3936 David Romer
Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence
w3934 Frederic S. Mishkin
Anatomy of a Financial Crisis
w3929 Benjamin M. Friedman
How Does It Matter?
w3920 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin Eichenbaum

Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock
w3892 Mark Gertler
Simon Gilchrist

Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms
w3885 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Reincarnation of Keynesian Economics
w3880 Patric H. Hendershott
Are Real House Prices Likely to Decline by 47 Percent?
w3879 Benjamin M. Friedman
Kenneth N. Kuttner

Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?
w3860 Alberto Alesina
Vittorio Grilli

The European Central Bank: Reshaping Monetary Politics in Europe
w3856 Benjamin M. Friedman
Kenneth N. Kuttner

Another Look at the Evidence on Money-Income Causality
r1645 John Y. Campbell
N. Gregory Mankiw

The Response of Consumption to Income
w3849 Robert J. Barro
World Interest Rates and Investment
w3846 Josef Lakonishok
Andrei Shleifer
Robert W. Vishny

Do Institutional Investors Destabilize Stock Prices? Evidence on Herding and Feedback Trading
w3840 Barry Eichengreen
Designing a Central Bank for Europe: A Cautionary Tale From the Early Years of the Federal Reserve System
w3830 Alberto Alesina
Gerald D. Cohen
Nouriel Roubini

Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies
w3829 Christina D. Romer
What Ended the Great Depression?
t0112 Jeremy Bulow
Paul Klemperer

Rational Frenzies and Crashes
w3824 Julio J. Rotemberg
John C. Driscoll
James M. Poterba

Money, Output and Prices: Evidence from A New Monetary Aggregate
w3823 Kenneth D. West
An Aggregate Demand - Aggregate Supply Analysis of Japanese Monetary Policy, 1973-1990
w3820 Robert C. Merton
Optimal Investment Strategies for University Endowment Funds
w3799 Herschel I. Grossman
Taejoon Han

A Theory of War Finance
w3798 Francois Degeorge
Richard Zeckhauser

Information Handling and Firm Performance: Evidence from Reverse LBOs
t0110 Scott Freeman
Guido Tabellini

The Optimality of Nominal Contracts
t0088 Frederic S. Mishkin
Does Correcting for Heteroskedasticity Help?
t0075 Alex Kane
The Delivery of Market Timing Services: Newsletters Versus Market Timing Funds
w3794 Bronwyn H. Hall
Corporate Restructuring and Investment Horizons
w3790 Geert Bekaert
Robert J. Hodrick

Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets
w3772 Sule Ozler
Guido Tabellini

External Debt and Political Instability
t0109 Larry G. Epstein
Stanley E. Zin

The Independence Axiom and Asset Returns
t0108 Robert J. Hodrick
Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Interference and Measurement
w3760 John Y. Campbell
John Ammer

What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns
w3756 Valerie A. Ramey
The Source of Fluctuations in Money: Evidence From Trade Credit
w3754 John B. Shoven
Scott B. Smart
Joel Waldfogel

Real Interest Rates and the Savings and Loan Crisis: The Moral Hazard Premium
w3752 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Pok-sang Lam
Nelson C. Clark

The Equity Premium and the Risk Free Rate: Matching the Moments
w3751 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Cara S. Lown

An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted From the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length
w3745 Leslie E. Papke
The Asset Allocation of Private Pension Plans
w3742 John Y. Campbell
Ludger Hentschel

No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns
w3737 Kenneth A. Froot
Japanese Foreign Direct Investment
w3731 Richard Zeckhauser
Jayendu Patel
Darryll Hendricks

Nonrational Actors and Financial Market Behavior
w3707 Franklin Allen
Gary Gorton

Rational Finite Bubbles
w3711 Gary Gorton
George Pennacchi

Security Baskets and Index-Linked Securities
w3695 Steven N. Kaplan
Jeremy C. Stein

The Evolution of Buyout Pricing and Financial Structure
t0104 Vittorio Grilli
Nouriel Roubini

Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policies in the World Economy
t0103 Robert Gertner
David Scharfstein

A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law
w3689 Michael D. Bordo
Peter Rappoport
Anna J. Schwartz

Money versus Credit Rationing: Evidence for the National Banking Era, 1880-1914
w3687 Gary Gorton
James Dow

Trading, Communication and the Response of Price to New Information
w3686 Herschel I. Grossman
Monetary Economics: A Review Essay
w3682 Robert F. Engle
Victor K. Ng

Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure
w3681 Robert F. Engle
Victor K. Ng

Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility
w3677 Bruce N. Lehmann
Notes on Dynamic Factor Pricing Models
w3676 Bruce N. Lehmann
Earnings, Dividend Policy, and Present Value Relations: Building Blocks of Dividend Policy Invariant Cash Flows
w3669 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Government, Financial Markets, and Economic Development
t0101 Richard D. Cothren
Roger N. Waud

On the Optimality of Reserve Requirements
t0100 John Y. Campbell
Pierre Perron

Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots
r1559 David M. Cutler
James M. Poterba
Louise M. Sheiner
Lawrence H. Summers

An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?
w3645 Gary Gorton
The Enforceability of Private Money Contracts, Market Efficiency, and Technological Change
w3663 Alberto Alesina
Morris Fiorina
Howard Rosenthal

Why Are There So Many Divided Senate Delegations?
w3653 Steven N. Kaplan
The Staying Power of Leveraged Buyouts
w3652 Bruce C. Greenwald
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Information, Finance, and Markets: The Architecture of Allocative Mechanisms
w3643 Ray Chou
Robert F. Engle
Alex Kane

Measuring Risk Aversion From Excess Returns on a Stock Index
w3640 Andrea E. Beltratti
Robert J. Shiller

Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices
t0099 Miles S. Kimball
Standard Risk Aversion
r1547 Olivier Blanchard
Jean-Claude Chouraqui
Robert P. Hagemann
Nicola Sartor

The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question
r1537 Kenneth R. French
James M. Poterba

Japanese and U.S. Cross-Border Common Stock Investments
w3638 Kenneth A. Froot
Andre F. Perold
Jeremy C. Stein

Shareholder Trading Practices and Corporate Investment Horizons
w3633 Shmuel Kandel
Robert F. Stambaugh

Asset Returns and Intertemporal Preferences
w3632 Frederic S. Mishkin
Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates
w3631 Wayne E. Ferson
George M. Constantinides

Habit Persistence and Durability in Aggregate Consumption: Empirical Tests
w3620 Martin Feldstein
Reducing the Risk of Economic Crisis
w3618 Andrei Shleifer
Robert W. Vishny

Asset Sales and Debt Capacity
w3617 Josef Lakonishok
Andrei Shleifer
Richard Thaler
Robert Vishny

Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers
w3613 Robert J. Shiller
Fumiko Kon-Ya
Yoshiro Tsutsui

Speculative Behavior in the Stock Markets: Evidence from the United States and Japan
w3612 Peter Rappoport
Eugene N. White

Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?
t0097 Lucian Arye Bebchuk
Howard F. Chang

Bargaining and the Division of Value in Corporate Reorganization
t0096 Lucian Arye Bebchuk
Chaim Fershtman

The Effects of Insider Trading on Insiders' Choice Among Risky Investment Projects
t0095 Lucian Arye Bebchuk
Chaim Fershtman

The Effect of Insider Trading on Insiders' Reaction to Opportunities to "Waste" Corporate Value
w3609 Kenneth R. French
James M. Poterba

Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets
w3604 Alberto Giovannini
Martha de Melo

Government Revenue from Financial Repression
w3599 Torsten Persson
Guido Tabellini

Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Theory and Evidence
w3597 Peter M. Garber
Alexander Hamilton's Market Based Debt Reduction Plan
w3592 Patric H. Hendershott
James A. Waddell

The Changing Fortunes of FHA's Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund and the Legislative Response
w3591 John H. Cochrane
Volatility Tests and Efficient Markets: A Review Essay
w3588 Richard Arnott
Joseph Stiglitz

Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets with Moral Hazard
w3586 Miles S. Kimball
Precautionary Motives for Holding Assets
w3583 Karen K. Lewis
Should the Holding Period Matter for the Intertemporal Consumption-BasedCAPM?
w3574 Philippe Jorion
Frederic Mishkin

A Multi-Country Comparison of Term Structure Forecasts at Long Horizons
w3550 Frederic S. Mishkin
Yield Curve
w3548 Patric H. Hendershott
The Market for Home Mortgage Credit: Recent Changes and Future Prospects
w3546 J. Bradford De Long
"Liquidation" Cycles: Old-Fashioned Real Business Cycle Theory and the Great Depression
w3529 Laurence M. Ball
Time-Consistent Policy and Persistent Changes in Inflation
w3562 Michael D. Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

What has Foreign Market Intervention Since the Plaza Agreement Accomplished?
w3551 Gary Gorton
George Pennacchi

Banks and Loan Sales: Marketing Non-Marketable Assets
w3511 Robin Grieves
Alan J. Marcus

Riding the Yield Curve: Reprise
w3523 J. Bradford De Long
Andrei Shleifer

The Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-End Funds
w3520 Grant McQueen
V. Vance Roley

Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions
w3517 Michael D. Bordo
Eugene N. White

British and French Finance During the Napoleonic Wars
w3504 Takatoshi Ito
Robert F. Engle
Wen-Ling Lin

Where Does the Meteor Shower Come From? The Role of Stochastic Policy Coordination
w3499 Takatoshi Ito
International Impacts on Domestic Political Economy: A Case of Japanese General Elections
w3498 Kenneth A. Froot
Andre F. Perold

New Trading Practices and Short-run Market Efficiency
w3495 Mark Gertler
R. Glenn Hubbard
Anil Kashyap

Interest Rate Spreads, Credit Constraints, and Investment Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation
w3488 Ben Bernanke
Harold James

The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison
w3487 Ben Bernanke
The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission
w3486 Ben Bernanke
On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads
w3484 Steven Kaplan
Michael S. Weisbach

The Success of Acquisitions: Evidence From Disvestitures
w3482 Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Randall Wright

Search for a Theory of Money
w3481 S. Rao Aiyagari
Mark Gertler

Asset Returns with Transactions Cost and Uninsured Risk: A Stage III Exercise
w3480 Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Learning and the Value of the Firm
w3471 V. Vance Roley
Simon M. Wheatley

Temporal Variation in the Interest-Rate Response to Money Announcements
w3470 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Kenneth Froot

Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
w3465 Charles Lee
Andrei Shleifer
Richard Thaler

Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle
w3464 Robert J. Shiller
Andrea E. Beltratti

Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?
w3459 J. Joseph Beaulieu
Jeffrey A. Miron

A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles
t0091 Robert F. Engle
Sharon Kozicki

Testing For Common Features
w3453 Robert J. Shiller
Maxim Boycko
Vladimir Korobov

Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
w3452 William C. Brainard
Matthew D. Shapiro
John B. Shoven

Fundamental Value and Market Value
w3451 Martin D. Evans
Karen K. Lewis

Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Struct
w3435 Takeo Hoshi
Anil Kashyap
David Scharfstein

The Role of Banks in Reducing the Costs of Financial Distress in Japan
w3426 J. Bradford De Long
Did J.P. Morgan's Men Add Value? A Historical Perspective on Financial Capitalism
w3415 Patric H. Hendershott
James D. Shilling

The Continued Interest Rate Vulnerability of Thrifts
w3407 Benjamin M. Friedman
Views on the Likelihood of Financial Crisis
w3406 R.A. Pecchenino
Robert H. Rasche

P* Type Models: Evaluation and Forecasts
w3403 Miles S. Kimball
Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume
w3402 N. Gregory Mankiw
Stephen P. Zeldes

The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-Stockholders
w3401 Edward J. Kane
Haluk Unal
Asli Demirguc-Kunt

Capital Positions of Japanese Banks
w3400 Frederic S. Mishkin
Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective
w3390 Steven N. Kaplan
Jeremy C. Stein

How Risky is the Debt in Highly Leveraged Transactions? Evidence from Public Recapitalizations
w3389 Darryll Hendricks
Jayendu Patel
Richard Zeckhauser

Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: The Persistence of Performance, 1974-87
w3388 N. Gregory Mankiw
Jeffrey A. Miron

Should The Fed Smooth Interest Rates? The Case of Seasonal Monetary Policy
w3383 Bennett T. McCallum
Money and Prices in Colonial America: A New Test of Competing Theories
w3381 Peter Garber
Steven Weisbrod

Banks in the Market for Liquidity
w3380 Barry Eichengreen
Peter Garber

Before the Accord: U.S. Monetary-Financial Policy 1945-51
r1416 Charles I. Plosser
Understanding Real Business Cycles
w3371 Albert Ando
Alan J. Auerbach

The Cost of Capital in Japan: Recent Evidence and Further Results
w3370 Olivier Blanchard
Changyong Rhee
Lawrence Summers

The Stock Market, Profit and Investment
w3368 Karl E. Case
Robert J. Shiller

Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
w3367 Michael D. Bordo
Finn E. Kydland

The Gold Standard as a Rule
w3359 Bruce C. Greenwald
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Asymmetric Information and the New Theory of the Firm: Financial Constraints and Risk Behavior
w3357 Mervyn King
Enrique Sentana
Sushil Wadhwani

Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets
w3350 Robert F. Engle
Che-Hsiung Hong
Alex Kane

Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets
w3348 Paul M. Healy
Krishna G. Palepu
Richard C. Rubak

Does Corporate Performance Improve After Mergers?
r1401 Benjamin M. Friedman
David I. Laibson

Economic Implications Of Extraordinary Movements In Stock Prices
w3339 R. Glenn Hubbard
Anil Kashyap

Internal Net Worth and the Investment Process: An Application to U.S. Agriculture
w3335 Matthew Richardson
James H. Stock

Drawing Inferences From Statistics Based on Multi-Year Asset Returns
w3326 Fumio Hayashi
Tohru Inoue

The Relation Between Firm Growth and Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms
w3324 Robert S. Pindyck
Julio J. Rotemberg

Do Stock Prices Move Together Too Much?
w3323 Frederic S. Mishkin
Financial Innovation and Current Trends in U.S. Financial Markets
w3314 Ryuzo Sato
Rama V. Ramachandran
Bohyong Kang

Risk Adjusted Deposit Insurance for Japanese Banks
w3311 K.C. Chan
Patric H. Hendershott
Anthony B. Sanders

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs
w3308 Edward J. Kane
Incentive Conflict in the International Regulatory Agreement on Risk-Based Analysis
w3307 Robert S. Pindyck
Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment
w3306 Takatoshi Ito
Masayoshi Maruyama

Is the Japanese Distribution System Really Inefficient?
w3305 John Y. Campbell
Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns
w3303 Roger H. Gordon
Do Publicly Traded Corporations Act in the Public Interest?
w3297 Charles R. Nelson
Myung J. Kim

Predictable Stock Returns: Reality or Statistical Illusion?
w3296 G. William Schwert
Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence
w3295 Robert S. Pindyck
Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices
w3291 Scott J. Brown
N. Edward Coulson
Robert F. Engle

Non-Cointegration and Econometric Evaluation of Models of Regional Shift and Share
w3290 Kenneth R. French
James M. Poterba

Were Japanese Stock Prices Too High?
w3287 Willem H. Buiter
Urjit R. Patel

Debt, Deficits and Inflation: An Application to the Public Finances of India
w3279 Andrew B. Abel
Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching up with the Joneses
w3278 Benjamin M. Friedman
Changing Effects of Monetary Policy on Real Economic Activity
t0087 Darrell Duffie
Kenneth J. Singleton

Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices
t0062 Kenneth A. Froot
Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Cross-Sectional Dependence and Heteroskedasticity in Cross-Sectional Financial Data
w3272 Guido Tabellini
A Positive Theory of Social Security
w3266 Benjamin M. Friedman
Implications of Corporate Indebtedness for Monetary Policy
w3262 Jason R. Barro
Robert J. Barro

Pay, Performance, and Turnover of Bank CEOs
w3259 Ian Gale
Joseph Stiglitz

The Informational Content of Initial Public Offerings
w3256 N. Gregory Mankiw
A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics
w3250 Kenneth A. Froot
David S. Scharfstein
Jeremy C. Stein

Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation
w3247 Kenneth A. Froot
Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns
w3246 John Y. Campbell
A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns
w3245 Martin D. Evans
Paul Wachtel

A Modern Look At Asset Pricing and Short-Term Interest Rates
w3243 David M. Cutler
James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders
w3242 David M. Cutler
James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

Speculative Dynamics
w3221 Charles I. Plosser
Money and Business Cycles: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation
w3217 Dennis Hoffman
Robert H. Rasche

The Demand For Money in the U.S. During the Great Depression: Estimates and Comparison with the Post War Experience
w3209 Ian Gale
Joseph Stiglitz

A Simple Proof That Futures Markets are Almost Always Informationally Inefficient
w3204 Michael D. Bordo
Lars Jonung

The Long-Run Behavior of Velocity: The Institutional Approach Revisited
w3199 Alex Cukierman
Sebastian Edwards
Guido Tabellini

Seigniorage and Political Instability
w3195 Alberto Giovannini
Philippe Jorion

Time-Series Tests of a Non-Expected-Utility Model of Asset Pricing
w3193 Stewart C. Myers
Signaling and Accounting Information
w3191 John Y. Campbell
Yasushi Hamao

Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration
t0083 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems
w3187 Joshua Rosett
Do Union Wealth Concessions Explain Takeover Premiums? The Evidence on Contract Wages
w3175 Olivier Jean Blanchard
Peter A. Diamond

The Aggregate Matching Function
w3174 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Prices during the Great Depression: Was the Deflation of 1930-32 really unanticipated?
w3172 Christina Romer
Jeffrey A. Miron

A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884-1940
w3171 Robert B. Barsky
J. Bradford De Long

Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century
w3170 Robert A. Korajczyk
Deborah J. Lucas
Robert L. McDonald

Understanding Stock Price Behavior around the Time of Equity Issues
w3169 Deborah J. Lucas
Robert L. McDonald

Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics
w3162 Bennett T. McCallum
Could A Monetary Base Rule Have Prevented the Great Depression?
w3160 Robert G. King
Charles I. Plosser

Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans
w3154 N. Gregory Mankiw
David H. Romer
Matthew D. Shapiro

Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal
w3153 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
w3146 Elhanan Helpman
Leonardo Leiderman

Real Wages, Monetary Accommodation, and Inflation
w3135 Alberto Alesina
Alessandro Prati
Guido Tabellini

Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and A Case Study of Italy
t0080 James A. Levinsohn
Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

A Simple, Consistent Estimator for Disturbance Components in Financial Models
w3128 Takatoshi Ito
Endogenous Election Timings and Political Business Cycles in Japan
w3126 Frederic S. Mishkin
The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation
w3125 Frederic S. Mishkin
A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation
w3116 Michael Devereux
Fabio Schiantarelli

Investment, Finacial Factors and Cash Flow: Evidence From UK Panel Data
w3115 Roger E.A. Farmer
AIL Theory and the Ailing Phillips Curve: A Contract Based Approach to Aggregate Supply
w3111 R. Glenn Hubbard
Peter C. Reiss

Corporate Payouts and the Tax Price of Corporate Retentions: Evidence from the Undistributed Profits Tax of 1936-1938
w3109 Alberto Giovannini
Pamela Labadie

Asset Prices and Interest Rates in Cash-In-Advance Models
w3107 William A. Brock
Blake LeBaron

Liquidity Constraints in Production Based Asset Pricing Models
w3106 Alan J. Marcus
An Equilibrium Theory of Excess Volatility and Mean Reversion in Stock Market Prices
w3101 Zvi Bodie
Pension Funds and Financial Innovation
w3095 Myron S. Scholes
Mark A. Wolfson

The Effects of Changes in Tax Laws on Corporate Reorganization Activity
w3094 Myron S. Scholes
Mark A. Wolfson

Employee Stock Ownership Plans and Corporate Restructuring: Myths and Realities
w3093 Myron S. Scholes
Mark A. Wolfson

Decentralized Investment Banking: The Case of Discount Dividend-Reinve stment and Stock-Purchase Plans
w3092 Myron S. Scholes
Mark A. Wolfson

Converting Corporations to Partnerships through Leverage: Theoretical and Practical Impediments
w3091 Kenneth A. Froot
Maurice Obstfeld

Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices
w3090 Chris Carroll
Lawrence H. Summers

Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence
t0050 Danny Quah
Takatoshi Ito

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing with Restricted Spectral Density Matrices: An Application to Uncovered Interest Parity
w3083 William G. Gale
Collateral, Rationing and Government Intervention in Credit Markets
w3079 Takeo Hoshi
Anil Kashyap
David Scharfstein

Bank Monitoring and Investment: Evidence from the Changing Structure of Japanese Corporate Banking Relationships
w3077 Peter C. Reiss
Economic and Financial Determinants of Oil and Gas Exploration Activity
w3074 Robert A. Taggart

Consistent Valuation and Cost of Capital Expressions with Corporate and Personal TAxes
w3073 James A. Brander
Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election
w3072 Alberto Alesina
Howard Rosenthal

Moderating Elections
w3058 Guido Tabellini
The Politics of Intergenerational Redistribution
w3054 Susanto Basu
Miles S. Kimball
N. Gregory Mankiw
David N. Weil

Optimal Advice for Monetary Policy
w3053 Alberto Alesina
Allan Drazen

Why are Stabilizations Delayed?
w3047 Bennett T. McCallum
Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy
w3043 Zvi Bodie
William Samuelson

Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice
w3039 Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason
Do Firms Care Who Provides their Financing?
w3037 Patric H. Hendershott
Joe Peek

Interest Rates in the Reagan Years
w3036 Patric H. Hendershott
Joe Peek

Treasury Bill Rates in the 1970s and 1980s
w3024 William G. Gale
Collateral, Rationing, and Government Intervention in Credit Markets
w3011 Michael D. Bordo
The Lender of Last Resort: Some Historical Insights
w3010 Patric H. Hendershott
James D. Shilling

Reforming Conforming Loan Limits: The Impact on Thrift Earnings and Taxpayer Outlays
w3009 Zvi Bodie
Inflation Insurance
w3001 Andrew W. Lo
A. Craig MacKinlay

Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models
w3000 Randall Morck
Andrei Shleifer
Robert W. Vishny

Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?
w2994 Alan J. Auerbach
Kevin Hassett

Corporate Savings and Shareholder Consumption
w2985 G. William Schwert
Indexes of United States Stock Prices From 1802 to 1987
w2984 Andrew W. Lo
Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices
w2977 Andrew W. Lo
A. Craig MacKinlay

When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?
w2966 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz
w2960 Andrew W. Lo
A. Craig MacKinlay

An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading
w2957 G. William Schwert
Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and Stock Volatility
w2956 G. William Schwert
Paul J. Seguin

Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns
w2955 Adrian R. Pagan
G. William Schwert

Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility
w2954 G. William Schwert
Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87
r1193 Steven Fazzari
R. Glenn Hubbard
Bruce C. Petersen

Investment, Financing Decisions, and Tax Policy
w2951 Joseph G. Haubrich
Andrew W. Lo

The Sources and Nature of Long-term Memory in the Business Cycle
w2949 Dennis Hoffman
Robert H. Rasche

Long-run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States
w2948 Laurence Ball
Stephen G. Cecchetti

Wage Indexation and Time-Consistent Monetary Policy
w2947 Fischer Black
Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging
w2946 Fischer Black
Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing
w2945 Bruce C. Greenwald
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Financial Market Imperfections and Productivity Growth
w2917 Zvi Bodie
Pensions as Retirement Income Insurance
w2914 Kenneth A. Froot
Jeremy C. Stein

Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach
w2910 Mervyn A. King
Sushil Wadhwani

Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets
w2903 Robert P. Flood
Robert J. Hodrick

Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations
w2902 Stephen J. Turnovsky
The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy
w2891 Robert J. Hodrick
Narayana Kocherlakota
Deborah Lucas

The Variability of Velocity in Cash-In-Advance Models
w2890 Charles Engel
Jeffrey A. Frankel
Kenneth A. Froot
Anthony P. Rodrigues

Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market
w2882 N. Gregory Mankiw
Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective
w2880 J. Bradford De Long
Andrei Shleifer
Lawrence H. Summers
Robert J. Waldmann

Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation
w2879 Takatoshi Ito
Is the Bank of Japan a Closet Monetarist? Monetary Targeting in Japan, 1978-1988
w2875 J. Bradford De Long
Andrei Shleifer
Lawrence H. Summers
Robert J. Waldmann

The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading
t0076 Jack Meyer
Robert H. Rasche

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Tests For Distribution Function Similarity With Applications To Portfolios of Common Stock
w2852 Benjamin M. Friedman
Kenneth N. Kuttner

Money, Income and Prices After the 1980s
w2850 Jeremy Bulow
Kenneth Rogoff

Sovereign Debt Repurchases: No Cure for Overhang
w2848 Miles S. Kimball
Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large
w2847 Patric H. Hendershott
Robert Van Order

Integration of Mortgage and Capital Markets and the Accumulation of Residential Capital
w2846 Robert J. Shiller
Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
w2836 Edward J. Kane
How Incentive-Incompatible Deposit-Insurance Funds Fail
r1111 Laurence M. Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw
David H. Romer

"The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off"
w2829 Philippe Weil
The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle
w2825 Michael D. Bordo
Ehsan U. Choudhri
Anna J. Schwartz

Money Stock Targeting, Base Drift and Price-Level Predictability: Lessons From the U.K. Experience
w2824 Alberto Giovannini
Philippe Weil

Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution in the Capital Asset Pricing Model
w2823 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Money, Credit, and Business Fluctuations
w2822 Philippe Weil
Money, Time Preference and External Balance
w2821 Philippe Weil
On The Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles
w2819 Martin Feldstein
Douglas W. Elmendorf

Budget Deficits, Tax Incentives and Inflation: A Surprising Lesson From The 1983-84 Recovery
w2818 Christopher M. Turner
Richard Startz
Charles R. Nelson

A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market
w2806 Robert J. Shiller
Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and Underpricing
w2798 G. William Schwert
Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?
w2795 Myung Jig Kim
Charles R. Nelson
Richard Startz

Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence
w2793 Zvi Bodie
Inflation, Index-Linked Bonds, and Asset Allocation
w2784 Robert B. Barsky
J. Bradford De Long

Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect Revisited
w2780 Robert Flood
Asset Prices and Time-Varying Risk
t0073 G. William Schwert
Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation
t0065 Robert F. Engle
Victor Ng
Michael Rothschild

Asset Pricing with a Factor Arch Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills
w2764 Peter M. Garber
Vittorio U. Grilli

Bank Runs in Open Economies and The International Transmission of Panics
w2763 Mark Gertler
Financial Capacity, Reliquification, and Production in an Economy with Long-Term Financial Arrangements
w2762 Stephen G. Cecchetti
Pok-sang Lam
Nelson C. Mark

Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices
w2759 Alberto Alesina
Guido Tabellini

Voting on the Budget Deficit
w2758 Mark L. Gertler
R. Glenn Hubbard

Financial Factors in Business Fluctuations
w2752 Zvi Bodie
Pension Fund Investment Policy
w2748 Karl E. Case
Robert J. Shiller

The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets
w2743 Herschel I. Grossman
The Political Economy of War Debts and Inflation
w2727 Robert A. Korajczyk
Deborah Lucas
Robert McDonald

The Effect of Information Releases on the Pricing and Timing of Equity Issues: Theory and Evidence
t0071 John Y. Campbell
Albert S. Kyle

Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behavior
w2715 J. Bradford De Long
Andrei Shleifer
Lawrence H. Summers
Robert J. Waldmann

The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets
w2710 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Andrew Weiss

Banks as Social Accountants and Screening Devices for the Allocation of Credit
w2706 Alberto Alesina
Howard Rosenthal

Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy
t0070 Charles R. Nelson
Chang-Jin Kim

The Time-Varying-Parameter Model as an Alternative to ARCH for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of Lucas Hypothesis
t0069 Charles R. Nelson
Richard Startz

The Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator and Its t-RatioWhen the Instrument is a Poor One
t0068 Charles R. Nelson
Richard Startz

Some Further Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator
w2694 Benjamin M. Friedman
Kenneth N. Kuttner

Time-Varying Risk Perceptions and the Pricing of Risky Assets
w2693 Edward J. Kane
Haluk Unal

Modeling Structural and Temporal Variation in the Market's Valuation of Banking Firms
w2691 Frederic S. Mishkin
Understanding Real Interest Rates
w2684 Robert J. Shiller
Fumiko Konya
Yoshiro Tsutsui

Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: The Case of Japan
w2683 Takatoshi Ito
Kunio Okina
Juro Teranishi

News and the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate, 1931-1933: The End of the Gold Standard, Imperialism, and the Great Depression
w2671 Robert S. Pindyck
Julio J. Rotemberg

The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices
w2668 Benjamin M. Friedman
Targets and Instruments of Monetary Policy
w2646 Patric H. Hendershott
James D. Shilling

The Impact of the Agencies on Conventional Fixed-Rate Mortgage Yields
w2643 Roger N. Waud
Tax Aversion, Optimal Tax Rates, and Indexation
w2641 Sanford J. Grossman
Merton H. Miller

Liquidity and Market Structure
t0067 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte Carlo Study
w2626 Frederic S. Mishkin
What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?
w2621 Andrew B. Abel
Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution In An Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model
w2610 Alberto Alesina
Guido Tabellini

External Debt, Capital Flight and Political Risk
w2609 Robert F. Engle
Takatoshi Ito
Wen-Ling Lin

Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market
w2608 William C. Melton
V. Vance Roley

Federal Reserve Behavior Since 1980: A Financial Markets Perspective
t0066 Andrew W. Lo
A. Craig MacKinlay

The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation
w2581 Robert J. Barro
Interest-Rate Smoothing
w2578 Willem H. Buiter
Centre For Labour Economics
w2575 Frederic S. Mishkin
The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results
w2574 Kenneth D. West
Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation
w2568 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

Interpreting Cointegrated Models
w2559 Mark L. Gertler
Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview
w2558 Dwight Jaffee
Andrei Shleifer

Costs Of Financial Distress, Delayed Calls Of Convertible Bonds, And The Role Of Investment Banks
w2552 Benjamin M. Friedman
Monetary Policy Without Quantity Variables
w2551 Benjamin M. Friedman
Lessons On Monetary Policy From The 1980's
w2549 Michael D. Bordo
The Contribution of a Monetary History of the United States: 1867 to 1960 To Monetary History
w2538 David M. Cutler
James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

What Moves Stock Prices?
w2533 Bruce N. Lehmann
Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency
w2532 Randall Morck
Andrei Shleifer
Robert W. Vishny

Alternative Mechanisms for Corporate Control
w2530 Edward J. Kane
Haluk Unal

Change in Market Assessments of Deposit-Institution Riskiness
w2529 Stephen A. Buser
Patric H. Hendershott
Anthony B. Sanders

On the Determinants of the Value of Call Options on Default-Free Bonds
w2528 Willem H. Buiter
Can Public Spending Cuts be Inflationary?
w2520 Bennett T. McCallum
The Role of Demand Management in the Maintenance of Full Employment
w2518 Stanley Fischer
Rules Versus Discretion in Monetary Policy
w2511 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends
w2506 Karl E. Case
Robert J. Shiller

The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
w2497 Charles W. Calomiris
R. Glenn Hubbard

Firm Heterogeneity, Internal Finance, and `Credit Rationing'
w2494 Bruce C. Greenwald
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles
w2490 Andrew B. Abel
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Does the Consumption of Different Age Groups Move Together? A New Nonparametric Test of Intergenerational Altruism
w2480 Bennett T. McCallum
Real Business Cycle Models
w2479 Ryuzo Sato
The U.S. Japan Trade Imbalance from the Japanese Perspective
w2472 Stephen G. Cecchetti
The Case of the Negative Nominal Interest Rates: New Estimates of the Term Structure of Interest Rates During the Great Depression
w2468 Alberto Alesina
Alex Cukierman

The Politics of Ambiguity
w2456 Robert S. Harris
Julian Franks
Colin Mayer

Means of Payment in Takeovers: Results for the U.K. and U.S.
r0943 R. Glenn Hubbard
Kenneth L. Judd

Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption
w2446 Robert J. Shiller
Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
w2443 Herschel I. Grossman
Lending to an Insecure Sovereign
w2436 John Y. Campbell
N. Gregory Mankiw

Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption
w2431 Michael D. Bordo
Angela Redish

Credible Commitment and Exchange Rate Stability: Canada's Interwar Experience
w2428 Kenneth Rogoff
Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles
t0063 Charles R. Nelson
Spurious Trend and Cycle in the State Space Decomposition of a Time Series with a Unit Root
w2423 Saman Majd
Robert S. Pindyck

The Learning Curve and Optimal Production Under Uncertainty
w2422 Deborah Lucas
Robert L. McDonald

Bank Financing and Investment Decisions with Asymmetric Information
w2421 Deborah Lucas
Robert L. McDonald

Bank Portfolio Choice with Private Information About Loan Quality: Theory and Implications for Regulation
w2419 J. Bradford De Long
Have Productivity Levels Converged? Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare in the Very Long Run
w2418 David M. Cutler
Lawrence H. Summers

The Costs of Conflict Resolution and Financial Distress: Evidence from the Texaco-Pennzoil Litigation
w2400 Frederic S. Mishkin
Can Futures Market Data Be Used to Understand the Behavior of Real Interest Rates?
w2395 J. Bradford De Long
Andrei Shleifer
Lawrence H. Summers
Robert J. Waldmann

The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders
w2393 Karl E. Case
Robert J. Shiller

Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities
w2392 Mervyn A. King
Jonathan I. Leape

Asset Accumulation, Information, and the Life Cycle
w2387 Steven Fazzari
R. Glenn Hubbard
Bruce C. Petersen

Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment
w2384 Carl E. Walsh
The Impact of Monetary Targeting in the United States: 1976-1984
w2383 Robert E. Cumby
Consumption Risk and International Asset Returns: Some Empirical Evidence
w2366 Douglas K. Pearce
V. Vance Roley

Firm Characteristics, Unanticipated Inflation, and Stock Returns
w2363 Kenneth A. Froot
New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w2362 Kenneth A. Froot
Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets
w2360 Jeffrey A. Miron
Stephen P. Zeldes

Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories
w2358 Kenneth A. Froot
Credibility, Real Interest Rates, and the Optimal Speed of Trade Liberalization
w2357 Sanford J. Grossman
An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies
w2355 Martin Feldstein
Douglas W. Elmendorf

Taxes, Budget Deficits ad Consumer Spending: Some New Evidence
w2354 Alberto Alesina
Stephen E. Spear

An Overlapping Generations Model of Electoral Competition
w2347 Sanford J. Grossman
Oliver D. Hart

One Share/One Vote and the Market for Corporate Control
w2345 Michael D. Bordo
Anna J. Schwartz

The ECU - An Imaginary or Embryonic Form of Money: What Can We Learn from History?
w2344 Robert B. Barsky
N. Gregory Mankiw
Jeffrey A. Miron
David N. Weil

The Worldwide Change in the Behavior of Interest Rates and Prices in 1914
w2343 James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications
w2341 Robert J. Shiller
J. Huston McCulloch

The Term Structure of Interest Rates
w2340 Alan J. Marcus
Arnold Kling

Interest-Only/Principal-Only Mortgage-Backed Strips: A Valuation and Risk Analysis
w2333 Willem H. Buiter
The Right Combination of Demand and Supply Policies: The Case for a Two-Handed Approach
w2322 Jayendu Patel
Richard J. Zeckhauser

Treasury Bill Futures as Hedges Against Inflation Risk
w2318 Ben Bernanke
Mark Gertler

Financial Fragility and Economic Performance
w2317 Edward J. Kane
No Room for Weak Links in the Chain of Deposit Insurance Reform
w2312 Bennett T. McCallum
Inflation: Theory and Evidence
w2308 Alberto Alesina
Guido Tabellini

A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt in a Democracy
w2300 William Poole
Monetary Policy Lessons of recent Inflation and Disinflation
w2297 Andrei Shleifer
Robert W. Vishny

The Efficiency of Investment in the Presence of Aggregate Demand Spillovers
w2296 Alberto Giovannini
Uncertainty and Liquidity
w2295 Randall Morck
Andrei Shleifer
Robert W. Vishny

Characteristics of Hostile and Friendly Takeover Targets
w2290 Patric H. Hendershott
Robert Van Order

Pricing Mortgages: An Interpretation of the Models and Results
w2285 Olivier J. Blanchard
Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey
w2276 Richard M. Levich
Developing the ECU Markets: Perspectives on Financial Innovation
w2272 Fumio Hayashi
Takatoshi Ito
Joel Slemrod

Housing Finance Imperfections and Private Saving: A Comparative Simulation Analysis of the U.S. and Japan
w2270 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Optimal Collection of Seigniorage: Theory and Evidence
w2260 Edward J. Kane
Who Should Learn What From the Failure and Delayed Bailout of the ODGF?
w2259 Herschel I. Grossman
John B. Van Huyck

Nominally Sovereign Debt, Risk Shifting, and Reputation
w2255 Michael D. Bordo
Lars Jonung

The Stochastic Properties of Velocity: A New Interpretation
w2253 Charles R. Nelson
Implicit Estimates of Natural, Trend, and Cyclical Components of Real GNP
w2251 Willem H. Buiter
Efficient "Myopic" Asset Pricing in General Equilibrium: A Potential Pitfall in Excess Volatility Tests
w2239 Herschel I. Grossman
A Generic Model of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Reputation
w2232 George Sofianos
Arie Melnik
Paul Wachtel

Loan Commitments and Monetary Policy
w2228 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality
w2219 Stewart C. Myers
Richard S. Ruback

Discounting Rules for Risky Assets
w2206 Charles W. Calomiris
R. Glenn Hubbard

International Adjustment Under the Classical Gold Standard: Evidence for the U.S. and Britain, 1879-1914
w2201 Laurence Ball
Stephen G. Cecchetti

Imperfect Information and Staggered Price Setting
w2186 Benjamin M. Friedman
New Directions in the Relationship Between Public and Private Debt
w2168 Andrew W. Lo
A. Craig MacKinlay

Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test
w2158 R. Glenn Hubbard
Kenneth L. Judd

Finite Lifetimes, Borrowing Constraints, and Short-Run Fiscal Policy
w2157 Bennett T. McCallum
Marvin S. Goodfriend

Money: Theoretical Analysis of the Demand for Money
w2154 Andrew B. Abel
Mark Warshawsky

Specification of the Joy of Giving: Insights from Altruism
w2151 John Y. Campbell
Richard H. Clarida

The Dollar and Real Interest Rates
w2144 James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

Recent Evidence on Budget Deficits and National Savings
w2133 Stephen J. Turnovsky
Monetary Growth, Inflation, and Economic Activity in a Dynamic Macro Model
w2125 Richard Deaves
Angelo Melino
James E. Pesando

The Response of Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's Weekly Money Announcements: The "Puzzle" of Anticipated Money
w2124 N. Gregory Mankiw
Jeffrey A. Miron
David N. Weil

The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve
w2123 Stephen J. Turnovsky
Alternative Modes of Deficit Financing and Endogenous Monetary and Fiscal Policy 1923-1982
w2116 Carl E. Walsh
Testing for Real Effects of Monetary Policy Regime Shifts
w2109 Richard T. Froyen
Roger N. Waud

Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm
w2100 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
w2094 Thomas Downs
Patric H. Hendershott

Tax Policy and Stock Prices
w2085 Charles W. Calomiris
R. Glenn Hubbard
James H. Stock

Growing in Debt: The 'Farm Crisis' and Public Policy
w2082 Robert S. Chirinko
Tobin's Q and Financial Policy
w2079 Michael D. Bordo
Angela Redish

Why did the Bank of Canada Emerge in 1935?
w2074 Michael D. Bordo
Lars Jonung

The Global Velocity Curve 1952-1982
w2072 Benjamin M. Friedman
Increasing Indebtedness and Financial Stability in the United States
w2062 Martin Feldstein
The Effects of Fiscal Policies When Incomes are Uncertain: A Contradiction to Ricardian Equivalence
w2048 Takatoshi Ito
The Intra-Daily Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Policies After the G5 Agreement
w2047 Robert B. Barsky
Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?
t0061 Willem H. Buiter
Granger-Causality and Policy Ineffectiveness: A Rejoinder
r0777 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited
w2029 Robert L. McDonald
Naomi Soderstrom

Dividend and Share Changes: Is There a Financing Hierarchy?
w2027 Willem H. Buiter
Death, Population Growth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality
w2009 N. Gregory Mankiw
Government Purchases and Real Interest Rates
w2004 Behzad T. Diba
Herschel I. Grossman

Rational Inflationary Bubbles
t0059 Andrew W. Lo
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data
w1990 Behzad T. Diba
Herschel I. Grossman

On the Inception of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices
w1980 Robert S. Pindyck
Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm
w1971 Robert P. Flood
Robert J. Hodrick
Paul Kaplan

An Evaluation of Recent Evidence on Stock Market Bubbles
w1970 Martin Feldstein
Budget Deficits, Tax Rules, and real Interest Rates
w1964 John Pound
Robert J. Shiller

Speculative Behavior of Institutional Investors
w1959 Patric H. Hendershott
Mortgage Pricing: What Have We Learned So Far?
w1958 Alex Kane
Alan J. Marcus

The Valuation of Security Analysis
w1955 James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

Finite Lifetimes and the Crowding Out Effects of Budget Deficits
w1946 John Y. Campbell
Richard H. Clarida

The Term Structure of Euromarket Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation
w1929 Frederic S. Mishkin
U.S. Macroeconomic Policy and Performance in the 1980s: An Overview
w1921 Robert S. Pindyck
Risk Aversion and Determinants of Stock Market Behavior
w1908 Bruce N. Lehmann
Residual Risk Revisited
w1892 Bennett T. McCallum
The Optimal Inflation Rate in an Overlapping-Generations Economy with Land
w1890 Peter R. Hartley
Carl E. Walsh

Inside Money and Monetary Neutrality
w1889 Steven L. Green
Herschel I. Grossman

The Illusion of Stabilization Policy?
w1885 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
w1874 James E. Pesando
Andre Plourde

The October 1979 Change in the Monetary Regime: Its Impact on the "Forecastability" of Interest Rates
w1867 Robert P. Flood
Robert J. Hodrick

Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching
w1858 V. Vance Roley
U.S. Monetary Policy Regimes and U.S.-Japan Financial Relations
w1853 Takatoshi Ito
V. Vance Roley

News from the U. S. and Japan: Which Moves the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate?
w1851 Robert J. Shiller
John Pound

Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Investment Among Institutional Investors
w1845 Jeffrey A. Miron
Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption
w1842 Ben S. Bernanke
Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation
w1828 Angelo Melino
The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory
w1821 Michael D. Bordo
Explorations in Monetary History: A Survey of the Literature
w1812 V. Vance Roley
The Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements under Alternative Operating Prosedures and Reserve Requirement Systems
w1806 John Y. Campbell
Money Announcements, the Demand for Bank Reserves and the Behavior of the Federal Funds Rate Within the Statement Week
w1804 Benjamin M. Friedman
Implications of the U.S. Net Capital Inflow
w1796 James M. Poterba
Julio J. Rotemberg

Money in the Utility Function: An Empirical Implementation
w1795 James E. Pesando
Discontinuities in Pension Benefit Formulas and the Spot Model of the Labor Market: Implications for Financial Economists
w1789 Charles R. Nelson
Andrew F. Siegel

Long-Term Behavior of Yield Curves
w1788 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Equity Premium and the Concentration of Aggregate Shocks
w1786 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse
t0052 Willem H. Buiter
A Fiscal Theory of Hyperdeflations? Some Surprising Monetarist Arithmetic
w1779 Behzad T. Diba
Herschel I. Grossman

Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?
w1767 Charles W. Calomiris
R. Glenn Hubbard

Price Flexibility, Credit Rationing, and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S., 1879-1914
w1738 R. Glenn Hubbard
Robert J. Weiner

Nominal Contracting and Price Flexibility in Product Markets
w1737 Alan J. Auerbach
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Life Insurance of the Elderly: Adequacy and Determinants
w1727 Robert P. Inman
The Funding Status of Teacher Pensions: An Econometric Approach
w1726 Bruce N. Lehmann
David M. Modest

The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory II: The Optimal Construction of Basis Portfolios
w1725 Bruce N. Lehmann
David M. Modest

The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests
w1721 Bruce N. Lehmann
David M. Modest

Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons
w1719 Zvi Bodie
Alan J. Marcus
Robert C. Merton

Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Pension Plans: What are the Real Tradeoffs?
w1707 Patric H. Hendershott
Tax Reform and Financial Markets
w1705 John Huizinga
Leonardo Leiderman

Interest Rates, Money Supply Announcements, and Monetary Base Announcements
w1695 Donald R. Haurin
Patric H. Hendershott

Affordability and the Value of Seller Financing
w1687 Charles R. Nelson
A Reappraisal of Recent Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis
w1686 J. Bradford De Long
Lawrence H. Summers

Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?
w1683 Benjamin M. Friedman
Mark Warshawsky

Annuity Prices and Saving Behavior in the United States
w1682 Benjamin M. Friedman
Mark Warshawsky

The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests
w1680 Robert B. Barsky
Lawrence H. Summers

Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard
w1678 John Huizinga
Frederic S. Mishkin

Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates
w1673 Herschel I. Grossman
John B. Van Huyck

Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation
w1669 N. Gregory Mankiw
Jeffrey A. Miron

The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w1663 Sanford J. Grossman
Monetary Dynamics with Proportional Transaction Costs and Fixed Payment Periods
w1654 Saman Majd
Robert S. Pindyck

Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions
w1643 Sanford J. Grossman
Angelo Melino
Robert J. Shiller

Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model
w1629 Carl E. Walsh
Borrowing Restrictions and Wealth Constraints: Implications for Aggregate Consumption
w1626 John Y. Campbell
Stock Returns and the Term Structure
w1625 Stanley Fischer
George Pennacchi

Serial Correlation of Asset Returns and Optimal Portfolios for the Long and Short Term
w1615 Behzad T. Diba
Herschel I. Grossman

The Impossibility of Rational Bubbles
w1614 Alex Kane
Alan J. Marcus

Valuation and Optimal Exercise of the Wild Card Option in the Treasury Bond Futures Market
w1612 Terry A. Marsh
Asset Pricing Model Specification and the Term Structure Evidence
w1611 Benjamin M. Friedman
V. Vance Roley

Aspects of Investor Behavior Under Risk
w1610 Robert J. Shiller
Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
w1596 Bennett T. McCallum
On Consequences and Criticisms of Monetary Targeting
t0045 Robert J. Shiller
Pierre Perron

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation
w1594 Charles R. Nelson
Andrew F. Siegel

Parsimoneous Modeling of Yield Curves for U.S. Treasury Bills
w1589 Carl E. Walsh
Monetary Information and Interest Rates
w1580 V. Vance Roley
Money Demand Predictability
w1575 Paul Jenkins
Carl E. Walsh

Real Interest Rate, Credit Markets, and Economic Stabilization
w1572 Bennett T. McCallum
Bank Deregulation, Accounting Systems of Exchange, and the Unit of Account: A Critical Review
t0044 Michael Rothschild
Asset Pricing Theories
w1565 Benjamin M. Friedman
Crowding Out or Crowding In? Evidence on Debt-Equity Substitutability
w1553 Saman Majd
Stewart C. Myers

Valuing the Government's Tax Claim on Risky Corporate Assets
w1548 Patric H. Hendershott
Pricing Adjustable Rate Mortgages
w1545 Benjamin M. Friedman
Portfolio Choice and the Debt-to-Income Relationship
w1544 Joe Peek
James A. Wilcox

Taxable and Tax-Exempt Interest Rates: The Role of Personal and Corporate Tax Rates
w1543 James A. Wilcox
Short-Term Movements of Long-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence from the U.K. Indexed Bond Market
w1542 Alex Kane
Leonard Rosenthal

Efficient Inflation Forecasts: An International Comparison
w1530 Michael Smirlock
Jess B. Yawitz

Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes and Market Efficiency
w1525 Stephen A. Buser
Patric H. Hendershott
Anthony B. Sanders

Pricing Rate Caps on Default-Free Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
w1523 Robert A. Taggart

Have U.S. Corporations Grown Financially Weak?
w1522 Scott P. Mason
Valuing Financial Flexibility
w1521 Patric H. Hendershott
Debt and Equity Returns Revisited
w1520 Benjamin M. Friedman
Implications of Government Deficits for Interest Rates, Equity Returns and Corporate Financing
w1519 Alan J. Auerbach
The Economic Effects of the Corporate Income Tax: Changing Revenues and Changing Views
w1509 John Y. Campbell
Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model
w1508 John Y. Campbell
A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses About the Term Structure of InterestRates
w1505 Herschel I. Grossman
John B. Van Huyck

Seigniorage, Inflation, and Reputation
w1493 Takatoshi Ito
Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity
w1487 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Value of Intermediate Targets in Implementing Monetary Policy
r0554 Richard H. Clarida
Benjamin M. Friedman

Why Have Short-Term Interest Rates Been So High?
w1482 Benjamin M. Friedman
Money, Credit and Interest Rates in the Business Cycle
w1478 Edward J. Kane
Change and Progress in Contemporary Mortgage Markets
w1469 James M. Poterba
Expected Future Tax Policy and Tax-Exempt Bond Yields
w1462 James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations
w1460 Richard T. Froyen
Roger N. Waud

An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and SomeImplications for Real Output
w1451 Benjamin M. Friedman
Financial Intermediation in the United States
w1450 J. Bradford De Long
Lawrence H. Summers

The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States
w1449 Peter J. Elmer
Patric H. Hendershott

Relative Factor Price Changes and Equity Prices
w1448 Lawrence H. Summers
Estimating the Long-Run Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation: A Response to McCallum
w1441 E. Philip Jones
Robert A. Taggart

Taxes and Ownership Structure: Corporations, Partnerships and Royalty Trusts
w1439 Alex Kane
Alan J. Marcus
Robert L. McDonald

Debt Policy and the Rate of Return Premium to Leverage
w1430 R. Glenn Hubbard
'Precautionary' Saving Revisited: Social Security, Individual Welfare, and the Capital Stock
w1415 Kenneth B. Dunn
Kenneth J. Singleton

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Nonseparable Utilityand Duriability of Goods
w1408 Stephen A. Buser
Patric H. Hendershott

The Pricing of Default-Free Mortgages
w1406 John H. Makin
Raymond D. Sauer

Exchange Rate Determination with Systematic and Unsystematic Policy Regime Changes: Evidence From the Yen/Dollar Rate
w1396 Stewart C. Myers
Nicholas S. Majluf

Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have
w1393 Stewart C. Myers
Capital Structure Puzzle
w1382 Donald F. Cunningham
Patric H. Hendershott

Pricing FHA Mortgage Default Insurance
w1379 Joe Peek
James A. Wilcox

The Reaction of Reduced-Form Coefficients to Regime Changes: The Case of Interest Rates
w1375 Carl E. Walsh
Optimal Taxation by the Monetary Authority
w1374 James A. Wilcox
Excess Reserves in the Great Depression
w1361 R. Glenn Hubbard
Social Security and Household Portfolio Allocation
w1358 Joe Peek
James A. Wilcox

The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates: Some Direct Estimates
w1355 John H. Makin
A Fiscal Framework for Analysis of Interest Rate Behavior in Open Economies
w1353 James M. Poterba
Lawrence H. Summers

The Economic Effects of Dividend Taxation
w1350 John H. Makin
Exchange Rates and Taxes
w1349 Edward J. Kane
Microeconomic Evidence on the Composition of Effective Household SavingsDuring the 1960s and 1970s
w1345 N. Gregory Mankiw
Lawrence H. Summers

Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?
t0036 Richard H. Clarida
Diane Coyle

Conditional Projection by Means of Kalman Filtering
w1331 Edward J. Kane
Regulatory Structure in Futures Markets: Jurisdictional Competition Among the SEC, the CFTC, and Other Agencies
w1323 Louis H. Ederington
Jess B. Yawitz
Brian E. Roberts

The Informational Content of Bond Ratings
w1313 Thomas Urich
Paul Wachtel

The Effects of Inflation and Money Supply Announcements on Interest Rates
w1320 Edward J. Kane
Technological and Regulatory Forces in the Developing Fusion of Financial-Services Competition
w1296 Douglas K. Pearce
V. Vance Roley

Stock Prices and Economic News
w1294 Bennett T. McCallum
Some Issues Concerning Interest Rate Pegging, Price Level Determinacy, and the Real Bills Doctrine
w1286 Alex Kane
Alan J. Marcus
Robert L. McDonald

How Big is the Tax Advantage to Debt?
w1280 William J. Marshall
Jess B. Yawitz
Edward Greenberg

Incentives for Diversification and the Structure of the Conglomerate Firm
w1278 V. Vance Roley
Carl E. Walsh

Unanticipated Money and Interest Rates
w1277 Bennett T. McCallum
Monetarist Rules in the Light of Recent Experience
w1273 Richard H. Clarida
Benjamin M. Friedman

The Behavior of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates Since October 1979
w1272 Benjamin M. Friedman
Lessons from the 1979-1982 Monetary Policy Experiment
w1268 Patric H. Hendershott
Expectations, Surprises and Treasury Bill Rates: 1960-82
w1248 Alex Kane
Young Ki Lee
Alan J. Marcus

Earnings and Dividend Announcements is there a Corroboration Effect?
w1247 Mervyn A. King
The Economics of Saving
w1243 Alex Kane
Young Ki Lee

The Forecasting Ability of Money Market Fund Managers and its Economic Value
t0030 Charles R. Nelson
Heejoon Kang

Pitfalls in the use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression
w1215 Jess B. Yawitz
Kevin J. Maloney
Louis H. Ederington

Taxes, Default Risk, and Yield Spreads
w1213 Robert A. Taggart

Capital Allocation in Mult-Division Firms: Hurdle Rates vs. Budgets
w1209 Benjamin M. Friedman
Managing the U.S. Government Deficit in the 1980s
w1208 Benjamin M. Friedman
Recent Perspectives in and on Macroeconomics
w1205 Jeffrey A. Frankel
A Test of Portfolio Crowding-Out and Related Issues in Finance
w1203 John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
r0405 George M. Constantinides
Capital Market Equilibrium with Personal Tax
w1187 Takatoshi Ito
Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity
w1186 Robert S. Pindyck
Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market
w1184 George M. Constantinides
Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr.

Optimal Bond Trading with Personal Taxes: Implications for Bond Prices and Estimated Tax Brackets and Yield Curves
w1181 V. Vance Roley
Carl E. Walsh

Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements
w1176 George M. Constantinides
Optimal Stock Trading with Personal Taxes: Implications for Prices and the Abnormal January Returns
w1169 John H. Ciccolo
Christopher F. Baum

Changes in the Balance Sheet of the U.S. Manufacturing Sector, 1926-1977
w1157 Robert E. Lucas

Financial Innovation and the Control of Monetary Aggregates: Some Evidence from Canada
w1151 Alan J. Auerbach
Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage
w1145 Michael S. Long
Ileen B. Malitz

Investment Patterns and Financial Leverage
w1144 Herschel I. Grossman
William S. Haraf

Shunto, Rational Expectations, and Output Growth in Japan
w1143 E. Philip Jones
Scott P. Mason
Eric Rosenfeld

Contingent Claims Valuation of Corporate Liabilities: Theory and Empirical Tests
w1142 Patric H. Hendershott
Roger D. Huang

Debt and Equity Yields: 1926-80
w1141 Zvi Bodie
Alex Kane
Robert L. McDonald

Why Are Real Interest Rates So High?
w1137 Wayne H. Mikkelson
Capital Structure Change and Decreases in Stockholders' Wealth: A Cross-Sectional Study of Convertible Security Calls
w1134 Richard T. Froyen
Roger N. Waud

The Changing Relationship Between Aggregate Price and Output: The British Experience
w1132 Kevin J. Maloney
William J. Marshall
Jess B. Yawitz

The Effect of Risk on the Firm's Optimal Capital Stock: A Note
w1130 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Substitutability of Debt and Equity Securities
w1121 Jeffrey A. Frankel
Gikas A. Hardouvelis

Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility
w1113 Jeffrey A. Frankel
William T. Dickens

Are Asset Demand Functions Determined by CAPM?
w1091 Zvi Bodie
Alex Kane
Robert L. McDonald

Inflation and the Role of Bonds in Investor Portfolios
w1090 Thomas Urich
Paul Wachtel

The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement
w1082 V. Vance Roley
Asset Substitutability and the Impact of Federal Deficits
w1081 Richard T. Froyen
Roger N. Waud

Demand Variability, Supply Shocks and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff
w1078 Willem H. Buiter
Deficits, Crowding Out and Inflation: The Simple Analytics
w1033 Benjamin M. Friedman
Money, Credit and Nonfinancial Economic Activity: An Empirical Study of Five Countries
w1019 Robert L. McDonald
Daniel Siegel

The Value of Waiting to Invest
w1013 Willem H. Buiter
The Proper Measurement of Government Budget Deficits: Comprehensive Wealth Accounting or Permanent Income Accounting for the Public Sector
w1001 V. Vance Roley
The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements
w0996 Gary Chamberlain
Michael Rothschild

Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets
w0993 John H. Makin
Money Surprises and Short-Term Interest Rates: Reconciling ContradictoryFindings
w0980 Benjamin M. Friedman
Monetary Policy with a Credit Aggregate Target
w0975 Sanford J. Grossman
Oliver D. Hart
Eric Maskin

Unemployment with Observable Aggregate Shocks
w0958 Douglas K. Pearce
V. Vance Roley

The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money
w0957 Benjamin M. Friedman
Pension Funding, Pension Asset Allocation, and Corporate Finance: Evidence From Individual Company Data
w0918 Patric H. Hendershott
Sheng Cheng Hu
Kevin E. Villani

The Economics of Mortgage Terminations: Implications for Mortgage Lenders and Mortgage Terms
w0917 Benjamin M. Friedman
Federal Reserve Policy, Interest Rate Volatility, and the U.S. Capital Raising Mechanism
w0915 Carl E. Walsh
Interest Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy
w0906 Richard Hartman
John H. Makin

Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Tests
w0893 Bennett T. McCallum
James G. Hoehn

Money Stock Control with Reserve and Interest Rate Instruments Under Rational Expectations
t0023 William A. Brock
Michael Rothschild
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Stochastic Capital Theory I. Comparative Statics
w0886 Benjamin M. Friedman
Interest Rate Implications for Fiscal and Monetary Policies: A Postscript on the Government Budget Constraint
w0869 David S. Jones
V. Vance Roley

Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis
w0867 Willem H. Buiter
Comment on T. J. Sargent and N. Wallace: "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic"
w0866 Robert A. Taggart

Effects of Regulation on Utility Financing: Theory and Evidence
w0838 Robert J. Shiller
Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
hall82-1 Robert E. Hall

Inflation: Causes and Effects
w0831 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Roles of Money and Credit in Macroeconomic Analysis
w0830 Benjamin M. Friedman
Debt Management Policy, Interest Rates, and Economic Activity
w0818 John H. Makin
Real Interest, Money Surprises and Anticipated Inflation
w0810 Robert A. Taggart

Secular Patterns in Corporate Finance
t0019 David S. Jones
V. Vance Roley

Bliss Points in Mean-Variance Portfolio Models
w0775 Charles Freedman
Monetary Aggregates as Targets: Some Theoretical Aspects
w0760 John H. Makin
Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity
w0755 Patric H. Hendershott
Sheng Cheng Hu

Accelerating Inflation, Nonassumable Fixed-Rate Mortgages, and Consumer Choice and Welfare
w0747 Lemma W. Senbet
Robert A. Taggart

Capital Structure Equilibrium under Incomplete Market Conditions
w0745 Benjamin M. Friedman
Financing Capital Formation in the 1980s: Issues for Public Policy
w0739 Patric H. Hendershott
Kevin E. Villani

Housing Finance in the United States in the Year 2001
w0738 Patric H. Hendershott
Kevin E. Villani

The Terminations Premium in Mortgage Coupon Rates: Evidence on the Integration of Mortgage and Bond Markets
w0737 Yair E. Orgler
Robert A. Taggart

Implications of Corporate Capital Structure Theory for Banking Institutions
w0732 Carl E. Walsh
Measurement Error and the Flow of Funds Accounts: Estimates of HouseholdAsset Demand Equations
w0731 Edward J. Kane
Changes in the Provision of Correspondent-Banking Services and the Role of Federal Reserve Banks under the DIDMC Act
w0725 Patric H. Hendershott
Kevin E. Villani

Savings and Loan Usage of the Authority to Invest in Corporate Debt
w0719 David S. Jones
The Efficiency of Decentralized Investment Management Systems
t0015 Gary Chamberlain
Michael Rothschild

Arbitrage and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets
w0704 Benjamin M. Friedman
Debt and Economic Activity in the United States
w0703 Martin Feldstein
Private Pensions as Corporate Debt
w0702 John H. Ciccolo

Changing Balance Sheet Relationships in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector, 1926-77
w0701 Zvi Bodie
Investment Strategy in an Inflationary Environment
w0700 Burton G. Malkiel
Risk and Return: A New Look
w0699 Patric H. Hendershott
Inflation, Resource Utilization, and Debt and Equity Returns
w0690 Sanford J. Grossman
Robert J. Shiller

Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information
w0678 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Information and Capital Markets
r0158 Patric H. Hendershott
Real User Costs and the Demand for Single-Family Housing
w0650 Charles Freedman
Some Theoretical Aspects of Base Control
w0648 John H. Makin
International Capital Flows under Full Monetary Equilibrium: An Empirical Analysis
w0647 John H. Makin
Exchange Rate Behavior under Full Monetary Equilibrium: An Empirical Analysis
w0645 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Relative Stability of Money and Credit "Velocities" in the United States: Evidence and Some Speculations
w0640 Edward J. Kane
Deregulation, Savings and Loan Diversification, and the Flow of Housing Finance
w0639 Edward J. Kane
Nested Tests of Alternative Term-Structure Theories
w0638 Edward J. Kane
Accelerating Inflation, Technological Innovation, and the Decreasing Effectiveness of Banking Regulation
w0205 Benjamin M. Friedman
V. Vance Roley

Structural Models of Interest Rate Determination and Portfolio Behavior in the Corporate and Government Bond Markets
w0598 David G. Hartman
The International Financial Market and U.S. Interest Rates
w0595 James E. Pesando
On Expectations, Term Premiums and the Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates
w0594 Robert A. Taggart

Taxes and Corporate Capital Structure in an Incomplete Market
w0593 V. Vance Roley
Symmetry Restrictions in a System of Financial Asset Demands: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
w0587 Benjamin M. Friedman
Effects of Shifting Saving Patterns on Interest Rates and Economic Activity
w0586 V. Vance Roley
The Effect of Federal Debt Management Policy on Corporate Bond and Equity Yields
w0261 Benjamin M. Friedman
Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations
t0007 V. Vance Roley
A Disaggregated Structural Model of the Treasury Securities, Corporate Bond, and Equity Markets: Estimation and Simulation Results
w0581 David G. Hartman
International Effects on the U.S. Capital Market
r0099 Patric H. Hendershott
Timothy W. Koch

The Demand for Tax-Exempt Securities by Financial Institutions
w0574 David S. Jones
Symmetric Substitution Matrices in Asset Demand Systsems
w0573 David S. Jones
Consistent Simple Sum Aggregation over Assets
w0566 Carl E. Walsh
Asset Prices, Substitution Effects, and the Impact of Changes in Asset Stocks
w0565 Robert J. Shiller
The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency
w0564 Sanford J. Grossman
Robert J. Shiller

The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
w0563 Robert J. Shiller
Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure
w0542 David S. Jones
Expected Inflation and Equity Prices: A Structural Econometric Approach
r0086 Wilbur G. Lewellen
Ronald C. Lease
Gary G. Schlarbaum

Portfolio Design and Portfolio Performance: The Individual Investor
w0536 Kenneth L. Stanley
Wilbur G. Lewehlen
Gary G. Schlarbau

Further Evidence on the Value of Professional Investment Research
w0525 Phillip Cagan
The Relation of Stock Prices to Corporate Earnings Adjusted for Inflation
w0509 Martin Feldstein
Stephanie Seligman

Pension Funding, Share Prices, and National Saving
w0508 Martin Feldstein
James M. Poterba

State and Local Taxes and the Rate of Return on Nonfinancial Corporate Capital (revised as W0740)
r0063 E. Han Kim
Wilbur G. Lewellen
John J. McConnell

Financial Leverage Clienteles: Theory and Evidence
r0062 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Information Value of Observing Monetary Policy Deliberations
w0239 Benjamin M. Friedman
The Effect of Shifting Wealth Ownership on the Term Structure of Interest Rates
r0058 Robert J. Shiller
Franco Modigliani

Coupon and Tax Effects on New and Seasoned Bond Yields and the Measurement of the Cost of Debt Capital
w0471 Burton G. Malkiel
John G. Cragg

Expectations and the Valuation of Sh