Sanford School of Public Policy
Durham, NC 27708
Institutional Affiliation: Duke University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|April 2013||Community-Wide Job Loss and Teenage Fertility|
with , : w19003
We estimate the effects of economic downturns on the birth rates of 15- to 19-year-olds, using county-level business closings and layoffs in North Carolina over 1990-2010 as a plausibly exogenous source of variation in the strength of the local economy. We find little effect of job losses on the white teen birth rate. For black teens, however, job losses to 1% of the working-age population decrease the birth rate by around 2%. Birth declines start five months after the job loss and then last for over a year. Linking the timing of job losses and conceptions suggests that black teen births decline due to increased terminations and perhaps also changes in pre-pregnancy behaviors; national data on risk behaviors also provide evidence that black teens reduce sexual activity and increase contra...
Published: Demography December 2013, Volume 50, Issue 6, pp 2151-2171 Community-Wide Job Loss and Teenage Fertility: Evidence From North Carolina Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat , Anna Gassman-Pines, Christina Gibson-Davis
|June 2011||Children Left Behind: The Effects of Statewide Job Loss on Student Achievement|
with , , : w17104
We examine effects of state-level job losses on student achievement. Losses to 1% of the working-age population decrease eighth-grade math scores by .076 standard deviations, with consistently negative but less precise effects on eighth-grade reading and on fourth-grade math and reading. Effects are 34 times larger than found when comparing students with displaced parents to otherwise similar students, suggesting that downturns affect all students, not just those whose parents lose employment. Evidence is inconsistent with a "downward spiral of behavior" or reduced school funding as causal mechanisms; rather, reduced income and increased distress likely inhibit performance. States experiencing displacement of 1% of workers likely see an 8% increase in schools missing No Child Left Behind r...